TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 4, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 66 points or 2.52% downside to 1967 and 0.75% upside to 2033.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.83
- VIX closed at 14.73 1 day percent change of 4.99%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, Sept., est. -$40.2b (prior -$40.1b)
- 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
- 9:45am: ISM New York, Oct. est. 62 (prior 63.7)
- 10am: Factory Orders, Sept., est. -0.6% (prior -10.1%)
- 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Nov., est. 46.5 (prior 45.2)
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills
- 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- Election Day:
- GOP chance of Senate control: NYT: 70%; FiveThirtyEight: 74%; Washington Post: “near certainty"; 96%
- President Obama attends meetings at White House
- Senate, House out of session
- Sec. of State John Kerry travels to Paris to meet with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius
- 8:30am: U.S. Census Bureau releases monthly export data, including figures for oil
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Senate Outlook, Latest Polls, Gaffes
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Republicans Have Edge in Vote With Senate Too Close to Call
- EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook for 2014, 2015
- JPMorgan Faces U.S. Criminal Probe Into Currency Trading
- Blackstone Is Said Near $8b Deal to Sell IndCor Unit
- AIG Profit Climbs to $2.19b in Hancock’s First Report
- MetLife’s Kandarian Said to Attend FSOC Hearing on SIFI Vote
- Scotiabank Cuts Jobs, Branches; Takes C$451m Pretax Charge
- Stryker to Pay More Than $1b for Recalled Hip Devices
- Disney Broadens Movie-Sharing Application to Android Users
- Sprint Cutting 2k Jobs as More Subscribers Cancel Service
- Herbalife Policy Changes Hurt Sales After Ackman Criticism
- Phoenix Voters Consider Abandoning Public Pension Promise
- Macau Casino Revenue Plunges Record 23% as Austerity Bites
- Capital One Subpoened by NY DA’s Office in Auto-Loan Probe
- Ignition Switch Unrepaired on Millions of GM Cars: NYT
- San Francisco Gave Airbnb Hometown Advantage, HomeAway Says
- Saudis Cut Oil Prices to U.S. in December Amid Shale Boom
- GPIF’s Strategy Shift Means Adding $187b to Stocks
AM EARNS:
- AerCap (AER) 6:58am, $1.18
- AK Steel (AKS) 8:30am, $0.09 - Preview
- Alibaba (BABA) 7am, $2.74
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.73
- Arcos Dorados (ARCO) 8am, $0.08
- Ares Capital (ARCC) 8:05am, $0.38
- Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.66
- Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) 7am, $0.08
- Burger King (BKW) 7am, $0.27
- Cobalt Intl Energy (CIE) 7am, ($0.17)
- CVS Health (CVS) 7am, $1.13 - Preview
- DiamondRock (DRH) 8am, $0.10
- Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.43 - Preview
- DISH Network (DISH) 6:04am, $0.39 - Preview
- Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:49am, $1.23 - Preview
- Entergy (ETR) 7am, $1.68
- Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.55 - Preview
- Expeditors Intl (EXPD) 9am, $0.49
- FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.88
- HMS (HMSY) 6am, $0.14
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) 7:30am, $2.01
- International Flavors (IFF) 7am, $1.32
- International Paper (IP) 7am, $0.88
- KBR (KBR) 7am, $0.23
- Linn Energy (LINE) 6:45am, $0.41
- LinnCo (LNCO) 6:45am, $0.60
- Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.89 - Preview
- Monster Worldwide (MWW) 7:30am, $0.03
- Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7am, $0.41
- Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) 6am, ($0.34)
- Och-Ziff Capital (OZM) 7:30am, $0.19
- Office Depot (ODP) 7am, $0.09
- PPL (PPL) 6:58am, $0.52
- Priceline (PCLN) 7am, $21.08 - Preview
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 6:30am, $2.57 - Preview
- Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $1.24
- Targa Resources (TRGP) 7:17am, $0.69
- TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:30am, C$0.62 - Preview
- Valero Energy (VLO) 7:46am, $1.57
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) 8am, $0.52
- Western Refining (WNR) 6:01am, $1.47
- Westlake Chemical (WLK) 6:30am, $1.57
- WP Carey (WPC) 7:30am, $0.54
- Zoetis (ZTS) 7am, $0.37
PM EARNS:
- Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:07pm, $0.13
- Amdocs (DOX) 4:01pm, $0.79
- Cimarex Energy (XEC) 4:20pm, $1.51
- Devon Energy (DVN) Aft-mkt, $1.23 - Preview
- Diamondback Energy (FANG) 4:04pm, $0.62
- EOG Resources (EOG) 5:05pm, $1.30 - Preview
- FireEye (FEYE) 4:03pm, ($0.56)
- HomeAway (AWAY) 4pm, $0.15
- Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) 4:01pm, ($0.32)
- Jack Henry (JKHY) 4:15pm, $0.63
- Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 4:05pm, $2.23 - Preview
- KAR Auction Services (KAR) 4:15pm, $0.31
- Liberty Interactive (LINTA) Aft-mkt, $0.21
- Liberty Media (LMCA) Aft-mkt, $0.35
- Linamar (LNR CN) 4pm, C$0.93
- Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.25
- Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 6:08pm, $0.72
- Oneok (OKE) 4:10pm, $0.39
- Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 6:18pm, C$0.29
- Pharmacyclics (PCYC) 4:04pm, $0.33
- PHH (PHH) 4:05pm, ($0.27)
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 4:09pm, $1.26 - Preview
- RenaissanceRe (RNR) 4:15pm, $2.28
- Russel Metals (RUS CN) 5pm, C$0.53
- Sanchez Energy (SN) 4:15pm, $0.20
- SBA Communications (SBAC) 4:02pm, $0.00
- TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:09pm, $0.60
- Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) 4:05pm, $0.36 - Preview
- WPX Energy (WPX) 4:05pm, ($0.01)
- Zulily (ZU) 4:05pm, ($0.04)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- U.S. Oil Falls to 3-Year Low on Saudi Price Cut as Supply Gains
- How Blue Skies for Obama in Beijing Help to Cut Iron Ore Prices
- Gold Rises for First Time in 5 Days as EU Cuts Growth Estimates
- Saudi Oil Market Fight Shifting to U.S. as Asia Prices Increased
- Changing Global Silver Fix Was Just the Beginning: Commodities
- Glencore Increases Third-Quarter Coal Output as Price Slumps
- Halliburton CEO Expects Shale to Reverse Decline in Oil: Energy
- Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down
- Rubber Falls From 10-Week High as Oil Price Drop Cuts Appeal
- Zinc Heads for Three-Week High as U.S. Auto Sales Beat Estimates
- Rebar Advances as Output Cuts During APEC Seen Reducing Supply
- Perth Mint October Gold Coin, Minted Bar Sales Drop From Sept.
- Pacific Shippers Say Dock Crews Slow Down in Seattle, Tacoma
- BullionVault’s Gauge of Client Buying Falls From 7-Month High
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team