THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 4, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 66 points or 2.52% downside to 1967 and 0.75% upside to 2033.                                                 

                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.83
  • VIX closed at 14.73 1 day percent change of 4.99%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Sept., est. -$40.2b (prior -$40.1b)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Oct. est. 62 (prior 63.7)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Sept., est. -0.6% (prior -10.1%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Nov., est. 46.5 (prior 45.2)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Election Day:
    • GOP chance of Senate control: NYT: 70%; FiveThirtyEight: 74%; Washington Post: “near certainty"; 96%
    • President Obama attends meetings at White House
    • Senate, House out of session
    • Sec. of State John Kerry travels to Paris to meet with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius
    • 8:30am: U.S. Census Bureau releases monthly export data, including figures for oil
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Senate Outlook, Latest Polls, Gaffes

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Republicans Have Edge in Vote With Senate Too Close to Call
  • EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook for 2014, 2015
  • JPMorgan Faces U.S. Criminal Probe Into Currency Trading
  • Blackstone Is Said Near $8b Deal to Sell IndCor Unit
  • AIG Profit Climbs to $2.19b in Hancock’s First Report
  • MetLife’s Kandarian Said to Attend FSOC Hearing on SIFI Vote
  • Scotiabank Cuts Jobs, Branches; Takes C$451m Pretax Charge
  • Stryker to Pay More Than $1b for Recalled Hip Devices
  • Disney Broadens Movie-Sharing Application to Android Users
  • Sprint Cutting 2k Jobs as More Subscribers Cancel Service
  • Herbalife Policy Changes Hurt Sales After Ackman Criticism
  • Phoenix Voters Consider Abandoning Public Pension Promise
  • Macau Casino Revenue Plunges Record 23% as Austerity Bites
  • Capital One Subpoened by NY DA’s Office in Auto-Loan Probe
  • Ignition Switch Unrepaired on Millions of GM Cars: NYT
  • San Francisco Gave Airbnb Hometown Advantage, HomeAway Says
  • Saudis Cut Oil Prices to U.S. in December Amid Shale Boom
  • GPIF’s Strategy Shift Means Adding $187b to Stocks

 

AM EARNS:

    • AerCap (AER) 6:58am, $1.18
    • AK Steel (AKS) 8:30am, $0.09 - Preview
    • Alibaba (BABA) 7am, $2.74
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.73
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) 8am, $0.08
    • Ares Capital (ARCC) 8:05am, $0.38
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.66
    • Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) 7am, $0.08
    • Burger King (BKW) 7am, $0.27
    • Cobalt Intl Energy (CIE) 7am, ($0.17)
    • CVS Health (CVS) 7am, $1.13 - Preview
    • DiamondRock (DRH) 8am, $0.10
    • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.43 - Preview
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6:04am, $0.39 - Preview
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:49am, $1.23 - Preview
    • Entergy (ETR) 7am, $1.68
    • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.55 - Preview
    • Expeditors Intl (EXPD) 9am, $0.49
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.88
    • HMS (HMSY) 6am, $0.14
    • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) 7:30am, $2.01
    • International Flavors (IFF) 7am, $1.32
    • International Paper (IP) 7am, $0.88
    • KBR (KBR) 7am, $0.23
    • Linn Energy (LINE) 6:45am, $0.41
    • LinnCo (LNCO) 6:45am, $0.60
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.89 - Preview
    • Monster Worldwide (MWW) 7:30am, $0.03
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7am, $0.41
    • Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) 6am, ($0.34)
    • Och-Ziff Capital (OZM) 7:30am, $0.19
    • Office Depot (ODP) 7am, $0.09
    • PPL (PPL) 6:58am, $0.52
    • Priceline (PCLN) 7am, $21.08 - Preview
    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 6:30am, $2.57 - Preview
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $1.24
    • Targa Resources (TRGP) 7:17am, $0.69
    • TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:30am, C$0.62 - Preview
    • Valero Energy (VLO) 7:46am, $1.57
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) 8am, $0.52
    • Western Refining (WNR) 6:01am, $1.47
    • Westlake Chemical (WLK) 6:30am, $1.57
    • WP Carey (WPC) 7:30am, $0.54
    • Zoetis (ZTS) 7am, $0.37

 

PM EARNS:

    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:07pm, $0.13
    • Amdocs (DOX) 4:01pm, $0.79
    • Cimarex Energy (XEC) 4:20pm, $1.51
    • Devon Energy (DVN) Aft-mkt, $1.23 - Preview
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) 4:04pm, $0.62
    • EOG Resources (EOG) 5:05pm, $1.30 - Preview
    • FireEye (FEYE) 4:03pm, ($0.56)
    • HomeAway (AWAY) 4pm, $0.15
    • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) 4:01pm, ($0.32)
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) 4:15pm, $0.63
    • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 4:05pm, $2.23 - Preview
    • KAR Auction Services (KAR) 4:15pm, $0.31
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) Aft-mkt, $0.21
    • Liberty Media (LMCA) Aft-mkt, $0.35
    • Linamar (LNR CN) 4pm, C$0.93
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.25
    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 6:08pm, $0.72
    • Oneok (OKE) 4:10pm, $0.39
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 6:18pm, C$0.29
    • Pharmacyclics (PCYC) 4:04pm, $0.33
    • PHH (PHH) 4:05pm, ($0.27)
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 4:09pm, $1.26 - Preview
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) 4:15pm, $2.28
    • Russel Metals (RUS CN) 5pm, C$0.53
    • Sanchez Energy (SN) 4:15pm, $0.20
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4:02pm, $0.00
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:09pm, $0.60
    • Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) 4:05pm, $0.36 - Preview
    • WPX Energy (WPX) 4:05pm, ($0.01)
    • Zulily (ZU) 4:05pm, ($0.04)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • U.S. Oil Falls to 3-Year Low on Saudi Price Cut as Supply Gains
  • How Blue Skies for Obama in Beijing Help to Cut Iron Ore Prices
  • Gold Rises for First Time in 5 Days as EU Cuts Growth Estimates
  • Saudi Oil Market Fight Shifting to U.S. as Asia Prices Increased
  • Changing Global Silver Fix Was Just the Beginning: Commodities
  • Glencore Increases Third-Quarter Coal Output as Price Slumps
  • Halliburton CEO Expects Shale to Reverse Decline in Oil: Energy
  • Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down
  • Rubber Falls From 10-Week High as Oil Price Drop Cuts Appeal
  • Zinc Heads for Three-Week High as U.S. Auto Sales Beat Estimates
  • Rebar Advances as Output Cuts During APEC Seen Reducing Supply
  • Perth Mint October Gold Coin, Minted Bar Sales Drop From Sept.
  • Pacific Shippers Say Dock Crews Slow Down in Seattle, Tacoma
  • BullionVault’s Gauge of Client Buying Falls From 7-Month High

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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