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THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK

Takeaway: Our Macro Playbook is a daily 1-page summary of our investment themes, core ETF recommendations and proprietary quantitative market context.

INVESTMENT CONCLUSIONS

Long Ideas/Overweight Recommendations

  1. iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
  2. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
  3. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)
  4. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
  5. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Short Ideas/Underweight Recommendations

  1. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
  2. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
  3. iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB)
  4. iShares MSCI European Monetary Union ETF (EZU)
  5. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

 

QUANT SIGNALS & RESEARCH CONTEXT

Manufacturing “Surges” In October… Or Did It?: Yesterday there was quite a bit of newsy fanfare surrounding the strong ISM Manufacturing PMI print. We think that optimism is quite a bit misguided in the sense that the Markit PMI data – which a substantially more robust indicator – slowed sharply in OCT on both the Manufacturing and Services fronts. The weakness in the Markit Manufacturing PMI data is in line with the trend of slowing growth in Durable Goods New Orders, Core CapEx Orders, as well as waning inventory build in the 3Q14 GDP print. Effectively, this would imply the Markit data series is more in line with economic reality versus whatever the heck the ISM or other widely-followed Consensus Macro “survey” data is pointing to in defense of a fledgling fundamental bull case for U.S. equities. Some might accuse us of data mining, but we’d gladly point them to our “data mining “ work from 2013 when we were equally as bullish on U.S. growth and domestic demand-oriented equities (i.e. Russell 2000) as we are bearish on those factors today.

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - Markit PMI Index Info

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - Markit Manufacturing PMI

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - Markit Services PMI

 

Defense Remains Offensive: If domestic manufacturing activity was expanding at the robust pace now-widely assumed by consensus, why on earth does the U.S. equity market continue to be led higher by defensive sectors? Specifically, the three sectors exhibiting the highest degree of positive momentum on a multi-duration basis are: Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care. Moreover, the XLU’s +2.0x VAMDMI reading is actually the highest across all of global macro and double that of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). The performance chase into year-end is officially on in large-cap U.S. equities, but will this behavioral factor be strong enough to offset the slowing economic cycle or the behavior factors associated with the most illiquid asset price bubble in U.S. equity and corporate credit market history? You know where we stand with respect to that question…

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - TACRM 20 20

 

***CLICK HERE to download the full TACRM presentation.***

 

TRACKING OUR ACTIVE MACRO THEMES

#Quad4 (introduced 10/2/14): Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.

 

Headlines & Under-Hoods: Sept. Income & Spending (10/31)

Hangovers & Late-Cycle Juggernauts: 3Q GDP & Initial Claims (10/30)

 

#EuropeSlowing (introduced 10/2/14): Is ECB President Mario Draghi Europe's savior? Despite his ability to wield a QE fire hose, our view is that inflation via currency debasement does not produce sustainable economic growth. We believe select member states will struggle to implement appropriate structural reforms and fiscal management to induce real growth.

 

Early Look: All Boxed In (10/22)

 

#Bubbles (introduced 10/2/14): The current economic cycle is cresting and the confluence of policy-induced yield-chasing and late-cycle speculation is inflating spread risk across asset classes. The clock is ticking on the value proposition of the latest policy to inflate as the prices many investors are paying for financial assets is significantly higher than the value they are receiving in return.

 

Early Look: Deflated Disputants (10/30)

 

Best of luck out there,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

 

About the Hedgeye Macro Playbook

The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets. The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework. The securities are ranked according to our calculus of the immediate-term risk/reward of going long or short at the prior closing price, which itself is based on our proprietary analysis of price, volume and volatility trends. Effectively, it is a dynamic ranking of the order in which we’d buy or sell the securities today.


CHART OF THE DAY | Write This Down: #Quad4 Deflation

Yen Down = Oil Down (Dollar Up) and now you see the next leg down -2.7% WTI to $76.66/barrel as whoever was trying to defend the $80 line falls down – this is textbook #Quad4 deflation and its catching up to equity and fixed income expectations, by sector.

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Write This Down: #Quad4 Deflation - 11.04.14 Chart


Write It Down

“Write down, therefore, what you have seen, and what is happening, and what will happen afterwards.”

-Revelation 1:19

 

No, I’m not going all religious on you this morning. That’s the opening volley from Jim Rickards in his recent book, The Death of Money. For those of you who missed it, I had a Real Conversation @HedgeyeTV with Rickards earlier in the year that you can watch here.

 

Do you write it down? What is “it”? And what do you do when something macro is happening that hasn’t happened for a very long period of time (like #deflation)? Once market expectations go through a phase transition from inflation policies to deflation, what will happen afterwards?

 

I’ve been writing down real-time market quotes, data, research, etc. in my notebook for 15 years and I have only seen versions of what I have been writing down for the last 10 months 2x: October 2007 and October 2008. Neither were bullish historical reference points and neither were the same.

 

Write It Down - 3

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

To review, what is #Quad4 Deflation? In our risk management process (rate of change) it’s when the second derivatives in both growth and inflation are slowing, at the same time. These signals are both non-linear, and dynamic.

 

“There has been no episode of persistent deflation in the United States since the period from 1; as a result, Americans have practically no living memory of deflation.” (The Death of Money, pg 9)

 

I was in LA yesterday (San Francisco today) and, to a degree, I think that’s why we’ve been getting so many moments of silence in one-on-one Institutional Investor meetings as of late. It’s really hard for objective risk managers to absorb a scenario they’ve really never had to deal with.

 

“Objective”? Yes, as in this is what the market told you about #Deflation expectations yesterday:

 

  1. US Dollar up +0.3% to +8.8% YTD
  2. WTI Crude Oil down -2.8% to #crashing -20.5% YTD
  3. Energy Stocks (XLE) down -1.6% to -2.8% YTD
  4. Basic Material Stocks (XLB) -0.7% to +3.9% YTD
  5. Healthcare Stocks (XLV) +0.1% to +21.5%% YTD

 

In other words, in stark contrast to the Dollar Up, Rates Up #Quad1 signal we gave you to be long of everything big beta US growth in 2013, this Dollar Up (going to cash), Down Rates, #Deflation move is nasty for most things that lose their pricing power.

 

Healthcare (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) are two of the sectors that don’t get decimated by #deflation as fast as a levered-long-crude-oil-hedgie-dude (or an upstream E&P MLP dude who depends on the “dividend” that is decided by the price of the other dude’s oil inflation expectations).

 

I know, #dude!

 

That’s why the objective investor who has been writing down the sector returns for the SP500 in 2014 has noted the following RELATIVE YTD performance:

 

  1. Healthcare (XLV) +12.3% YTD
  2. Utilities (XLU) +11.4% YTD
  3. Technology (XLK) +4.7% YTD

Vs.

  1. Basic Materials (XLB) -5.2% YTD
  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -7.3% YTD
  3. Energy (XLE) -12.0% YTD

 

Yep, if all you did was express either our early-cycle slowdown calls for #ConsumerSlowing and #HousingSlowdown from the beginning of the year and/or our #Quad4 deflation call, in your S&P Sector asset allocations, you’ve crushed it.

 

If all that mattered to the American Consumer was “gas prices” (it actually represents only 6.4% of the median consumer’s budget) all of these rosy “surveys” you’ve been reading would have been right. Instead, in relative and sector performance terms, those narrative fallacies got you killed.

 

But, but, the ISM number was great yesterday. Yep, just great, another survey!

 

In other news, Industrials (XLI) closed down on the day on that ISM manufacturing report. I wonder if that’s because the non-survey data (US Retail Sales, Consumer Spending, Durable Goods, Construction Spending, and New Home Sales), all recently SLOWED, in actual rate of change terms!

 

Moving along…

 

If only everyone who writes in this business was forced to actually write this stuff down, every single day, consensus might be as concerned about the big beta #bubble in levered-long-and-illiquid US equity inflation expectations as I am.

 

But what is your catalyst, Keith?

 

  1. What I have been writing to you all year is already happening
  2. What I have seen (on the mid-October Russell and Bond Yield Lows) has not been forgotten
  3. What is most probable to happen next is more of the same

 

If everything that was in #crash mode on October 13-14th were to crash, literally, tomorrow… I’d write it down too – and “it” would be something that should not come as a surprise to anyone.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.21-2.37%

SPX 1

RUT 1086-1181

Italy’s MIB Index 189

Yen 109.27-113.66

WTI Oil 76.41-80.94

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Write It Down - 11.04.14 Chart


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 4, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 66 points or 2.52% downside to 1967 and 0.75% upside to 2033.                                                 

                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.83
  • VIX closed at 14.73 1 day percent change of 4.99%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Sept., est. -$40.2b (prior -$40.1b)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Oct. est. 62 (prior 63.7)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Sept., est. -0.6% (prior -10.1%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Nov., est. 46.5 (prior 45.2)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Election Day:
    • GOP chance of Senate control: NYT: 70%; FiveThirtyEight: 74%; Washington Post: “near certainty"; 96%
    • President Obama attends meetings at White House
    • Senate, House out of session
    • Sec. of State John Kerry travels to Paris to meet with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius
    • 8:30am: U.S. Census Bureau releases monthly export data, including figures for oil
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Senate Outlook, Latest Polls, Gaffes

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Republicans Have Edge in Vote With Senate Too Close to Call
  • EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook for 2014, 2015
  • JPMorgan Faces U.S. Criminal Probe Into Currency Trading
  • Blackstone Is Said Near $8b Deal to Sell IndCor Unit
  • AIG Profit Climbs to $2.19b in Hancock’s First Report
  • MetLife’s Kandarian Said to Attend FSOC Hearing on SIFI Vote
  • Scotiabank Cuts Jobs, Branches; Takes C$451m Pretax Charge
  • Stryker to Pay More Than $1b for Recalled Hip Devices
  • Disney Broadens Movie-Sharing Application to Android Users
  • Sprint Cutting 2k Jobs as More Subscribers Cancel Service
  • Herbalife Policy Changes Hurt Sales After Ackman Criticism
  • Phoenix Voters Consider Abandoning Public Pension Promise
  • Macau Casino Revenue Plunges Record 23% as Austerity Bites
  • Capital One Subpoened by NY DA’s Office in Auto-Loan Probe
  • Ignition Switch Unrepaired on Millions of GM Cars: NYT
  • San Francisco Gave Airbnb Hometown Advantage, HomeAway Says
  • Saudis Cut Oil Prices to U.S. in December Amid Shale Boom
  • GPIF’s Strategy Shift Means Adding $187b to Stocks

 

AM EARNS:

    • AerCap (AER) 6:58am, $1.18
    • AK Steel (AKS) 8:30am, $0.09 - Preview
    • Alibaba (BABA) 7am, $2.74
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.73
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) 8am, $0.08
    • Ares Capital (ARCC) 8:05am, $0.38
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.66
    • Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) 7am, $0.08
    • Burger King (BKW) 7am, $0.27
    • Cobalt Intl Energy (CIE) 7am, ($0.17)
    • CVS Health (CVS) 7am, $1.13 - Preview
    • DiamondRock (DRH) 8am, $0.10
    • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.43 - Preview
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6:04am, $0.39 - Preview
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:49am, $1.23 - Preview
    • Entergy (ETR) 7am, $1.68
    • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.55 - Preview
    • Expeditors Intl (EXPD) 9am, $0.49
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.88
    • HMS (HMSY) 6am, $0.14
    • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) 7:30am, $2.01
    • International Flavors (IFF) 7am, $1.32
    • International Paper (IP) 7am, $0.88
    • KBR (KBR) 7am, $0.23
    • Linn Energy (LINE) 6:45am, $0.41
    • LinnCo (LNCO) 6:45am, $0.60
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.89 - Preview
    • Monster Worldwide (MWW) 7:30am, $0.03
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7am, $0.41
    • Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) 6am, ($0.34)
    • Och-Ziff Capital (OZM) 7:30am, $0.19
    • Office Depot (ODP) 7am, $0.09
    • PPL (PPL) 6:58am, $0.52
    • Priceline (PCLN) 7am, $21.08 - Preview
    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 6:30am, $2.57 - Preview
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $1.24
    • Targa Resources (TRGP) 7:17am, $0.69
    • TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:30am, C$0.62 - Preview
    • Valero Energy (VLO) 7:46am, $1.57
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) 8am, $0.52
    • Western Refining (WNR) 6:01am, $1.47
    • Westlake Chemical (WLK) 6:30am, $1.57
    • WP Carey (WPC) 7:30am, $0.54
    • Zoetis (ZTS) 7am, $0.37

 

PM EARNS:

    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:07pm, $0.13
    • Amdocs (DOX) 4:01pm, $0.79
    • Cimarex Energy (XEC) 4:20pm, $1.51
    • Devon Energy (DVN) Aft-mkt, $1.23 - Preview
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) 4:04pm, $0.62
    • EOG Resources (EOG) 5:05pm, $1.30 - Preview
    • FireEye (FEYE) 4:03pm, ($0.56)
    • HomeAway (AWAY) 4pm, $0.15
    • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) 4:01pm, ($0.32)
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) 4:15pm, $0.63
    • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 4:05pm, $2.23 - Preview
    • KAR Auction Services (KAR) 4:15pm, $0.31
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) Aft-mkt, $0.21
    • Liberty Media (LMCA) Aft-mkt, $0.35
    • Linamar (LNR CN) 4pm, C$0.93
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.25
    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 6:08pm, $0.72
    • Oneok (OKE) 4:10pm, $0.39
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 6:18pm, C$0.29
    • Pharmacyclics (PCYC) 4:04pm, $0.33
    • PHH (PHH) 4:05pm, ($0.27)
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 4:09pm, $1.26 - Preview
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) 4:15pm, $2.28
    • Russel Metals (RUS CN) 5pm, C$0.53
    • Sanchez Energy (SN) 4:15pm, $0.20
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4:02pm, $0.00
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:09pm, $0.60
    • Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) 4:05pm, $0.36 - Preview
    • WPX Energy (WPX) 4:05pm, ($0.01)
    • Zulily (ZU) 4:05pm, ($0.04)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • U.S. Oil Falls to 3-Year Low on Saudi Price Cut as Supply Gains
  • How Blue Skies for Obama in Beijing Help to Cut Iron Ore Prices
  • Gold Rises for First Time in 5 Days as EU Cuts Growth Estimates
  • Saudi Oil Market Fight Shifting to U.S. as Asia Prices Increased
  • Changing Global Silver Fix Was Just the Beginning: Commodities
  • Glencore Increases Third-Quarter Coal Output as Price Slumps
  • Halliburton CEO Expects Shale to Reverse Decline in Oil: Energy
  • Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down
  • Rubber Falls From 10-Week High as Oil Price Drop Cuts Appeal
  • Zinc Heads for Three-Week High as U.S. Auto Sales Beat Estimates
  • Rebar Advances as Output Cuts During APEC Seen Reducing Supply
  • Perth Mint October Gold Coin, Minted Bar Sales Drop From Sept.
  • Pacific Shippers Say Dock Crews Slow Down in Seattle, Tacoma
  • BullionVault’s Gauge of Client Buying Falls From 7-Month High

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


November 4, 2014

November 4, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

November 4, 2014 - Slide2

November 4, 2014 - Slide3

November 4, 2014 - Slide4

 

 

BEARISH TRENDS

November 4, 2014 - Slide5

November 4, 2014 - Slide6

November 4, 2014 - Slide7

November 4, 2014 - Slide8

November 4, 2014 - Slide9

November 4, 2014 - Slide10

November 4, 2014 - Slide11
November 4, 2014 - Slide12

November 4, 2014 - Slide13


Useless Sleep

This note was originally published at 8am on October 21, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“There is something in the New York air that makes sleep useless.”

-Simone De Beauvoir

 

I’m not known as a big sleeper. I’ve been krolled (not to be confused with being trolled on Twitter) a few times during the due diligence process for different ownership/partnership stakes and positions, and “irregular hours” always comes up as a “flag.”

 

Back when we started the firm in 2008, that’s why I called this morning rant the Early Look. And so my amateur writing career began… with the promise of only one repeatable competitive differentiator: getting up early and writing to you at the top of the risk management morning.

 

Last night we hosted a small group dinner in NYC to talk about how everything has “bottomed.” While the feedback (and fear) is that most don’t want to “miss” the next move up, I couldn’t sleep last night thinking that fear itself might just be the biggest #Bubble of them all.

 

Useless Sleep - EL chart 2

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

When someone uses the word “fear”, it tends to have negative connotations. And, to be clear, I am thinking very negative things could happen if I am correct in calibrating that many got longer of #bubble exposures on the equity and junk bond market’s most recent bounce.

 

Sure, they may have sold short indices and overpaid for volatility, protection, etc. in the heat of last week’s melt-down, but they A) didn’t sell all of their crashing small/mid cap equity exposures and/or B) their junkie “high-yield” positions either.

 

In risk management speak, in bear markets we call this cardinal sin “selling what you can, not what you should”… and while my calibration might be wrong, I can’t see that in the market’s futures/options positioning (which is getting longer of beta, not shorter).

 

To review where some of the hardest core #Bubbles are in this interconnected world:

 

  1. Central Planning
  2. Carry Trading
  3. Complacency
  4. Small Cap Illiquidity
  5. Fixed Income Junk
  6. Hedge Fund Levered Long Beta

 

To me, a lot of this is one and the same thing. And it really starts with the 1st #Bubble (Central Planning) because that’s what drove macro markets to inheriting the mother of all interconnected risks (see exhibit 52 in the Q4 Macro Themes Deck) – the #Bubble in Spread Risk (see Chart of The Day):

 

  1. All-time Low in Spreads (Investment Grade over Treasuries)
  2. All-time low in Volatility (across asset classes)
  3. All-time high in Debt Outstanding (globally)

 

What’s fascinating about this 3D risk picture is that almost every equity only PM we meet with agrees with it much more adamantly than any of my US stock market centric #bubble charts (like the one that has Russell 2000 at 55x earnings with low liquidity).

 

There’s obviously confirmation bias in that, but reality is that unless you think it’s different this time (almost every “the bottom is in” thesis has something to do with markets not being able to go down anymore), this is how The Waterfall of Spread Risk works:

 

  1. Global Growth continues to surprise to the downside
  2. US Long Bond Yields continue to fall in kind (mean reverting to what Japan and Germany’s did)
  3. Both volatility and spread risk continue to break-out from their all-time lows

 

You see, the core differentiator in our call this year has always been fundamental – that growth slows and starts to get priced into expectations.

 

“So”, instead of living in fear of your own performance and/or what the “other funds” did last week when the Russell was -15% from its July #bubble high, why don’t I hear most people focusing on what was causal to the gap down in bond yields and equity markets to begin with?

 

You can lose sleep over what everyone else is doing, or you can focus on what you need to do to get the fundamental research right. And this early riser humbly submits that if you get the rate of change in growth and inflation right, you’re going to get both bond yields and your exposures right.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.09-2.25%

SPX 1830-1935

RUT 1040-1106
VIX 15.15-28.82

WTI Oil 79.97-83.95

Gold 1215-1258

 

Best of luck out there,

KM

 

Useless Sleep - Chart of the Day


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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