Takeaway: RHP should report a solid Q3 and clarification of diluted share count will be welcome

Consensus estimates, management guidance and commentary, and questions for management in preparation for the earnings release tomorrow



Please see our note:

KATE – Best Idea Flash Call (Wednesday)

Takeaway: KATE: Best Idea Flash Call Wednesday, 11/5 at 11:00am ET.

We’re hosting a Flash Call on Wednesday, November 5th at 11:00am ET to outline why we added KATE  to our Best Ideas list as a long. We’ll review, in detail, our thesis across durations (Trade, Trend and Tail) and will explore where the stock should go as well as where we could be wrong ahead of the company’s print (on Thursday the 6th).


Key Topics Will Include:

1) Bottom-up category growth model. Penetration and growth potential in handbags, apparel, footwear, accessories, etc…

2) Where KATE is in its store maturation curve, and the implied impact on comp. 

3) A look at earnings and profitability under a real reporting structure – one that we think it will adopt within 2-years – as opposed to the opacity that exists in the model today.

4) Property strategy relative to other brands, and cost implications.

5) Process by which KATE could jettison Jack Saturday.

6) Scenario analysis for updated guidance to long-term model – both the risk and the upside.

7) Where we could be wrong in having KATE as one of our Best Ideas on the long side.


Participant Dialing Instructions

Toll Free Number:

Direct Dial Number:

Conference Code: 213986#

Materials: CLICK HERE

Cartoon of the Day: #CurrencyBurning

Takeaway: This is going to get really ugly.

Cartoon of the Day: #CurrencyBurning - campfire cartoon 10.31.2014

the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

Will Plunge In Oil Prices Crush Vladimir Putin and Russia?

Takeaway: Putin's got some major problems.

Russia remains one of our preferred country shorts on Oil Deflation. We shorted it last Thursday in Real-Time Alerts. Russian equities are in full-blown crash mode now down -22% year-to-date.


Our macro team is doing a lot of work right now on whether or not Japan and Europe opting to devalue will ultimately result in eventual Russian economic collapse.


It’s an important question to ask as oil trades below $80, and Vladimir Putin’s Russian budget is reportedly based on oil trading at $100.


Will Plunge In Oil Prices Crush Vladimir Putin and Russia? - 11.03.14 Oil vs. Russian Equities

*CALL TODAY AT 11AM: Will There Be An October Surprise? With renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen

We will be hosting a conference call today at 11:00am EDT with renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen to discuss the upcoming midterm elections.  


Mr. Rasmussen will provide a 30 minute presentation on potential election outcomes followed by an open Q&A moderated by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.


Mr. Rasmussen was referred to by the Washington Post as "a driving force in American politics" and been called "America's insurgent pollster". He has widely been considered one of the more accurate pollsters in the nation and the one who is most in touch with subtle opinion shifts in the electorate.




  • What are the probable outcomes nationwide for both the Senate and House of Representatives?
  • Which races are most likely to end in surprise?
  • What are the implications of this election for politics, economics, and policy?
  • Post the results, what are the implications for the President and both parties in various outcome scenarios?



  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 399212#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)

Ping for more information.



Founder and president of Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen is a political analyst, New York Times bestselling author, public speaker and independent public opinion pollster. 


In 2012, Rasmussen became a New York Times bestselling author with his book The People's Money. His earlier books include Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System and In Search of Self-Governance.


Rasmussen and his firm have developed a reputation for delivering reliable, newsworthy and actionable public opinion data.'s Mickey Kaus declared in 2009, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen." The Washington Examiner's Michael Barone calls him "one of America's most innovative pollsters." Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, say that Scott has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."


In 2008, Rasmussen projected then-Senator Barack Obama would win the presidential election by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen was within half a percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both President Bush and Senator Kerry.


Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 1


Recent Notes

10/27/14 Monday Mashup: BWLD, BJRI and More

10/28/14 New Best Idea: Short CHUY

10/31/14 SBUX: Short Thesis Firmly Intact

11/02/14 New Best Idea: Long YUM – Vulnerable to Activism


Events This Week

Monday, November 3rd

  • TXRH earnings call 5:00am EST

Tuesday, November 4th

  • BKW earnings call 8:30am EST
  • BLMN earnings call 9:00am EST
  • ARCO earnings call 10:00am EST
  • RRGB earnings call 10:00am EST
  • FRGI earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • JMBA earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • PBPB earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • CHUY earnings call 5:00pm EST

Wednesday, November 5th

  • PZZA earnings call 8:00am EST
  • DAVE earnings call 8:30am EST
  • TAST earnings call 8:30am EST
  • THI earnings call 10:30am EST
  • RUTH earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • NDLS earnings call 4:30pm EST

Thursday, November 6th 

  • WEN earnings call 9:00am EST
  • LOCO earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • BBRG earnings call 5:00pm EST


Chart of the Day

SBUX global traffic has now decelerated for five consecutive quarters, coming in at 1% in 4QF14.


Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 2


Recent News Flow

Monday, October 27th

  • DIN upgraded to buy from neutral at Longbow.
  • DIN increased its quarterly cash dividend by 17% to $0.875 per share of common stock; share repurchase authorization increased to $100 million.
  • PLKI announced the launch of its new Buttermilk Biscuit Butterfly Shrimp.

Tuesday, October 28th

  • CAKE announced the opening of its newest restaurant (8,000 sq. ft.) at the Fayette Mall in Lexington, Kentucky.
  • BWLD upgraded to outperform at RW Baird with a $180 PT.

Wednesday, October 29th

  • DIN downgraded to market perform at Telsey Advisory Group.
  • JMBA upgraded to outperform from neutral at Wedbush with a $17 PT.
  • LOCO names Mark A. Belanger, CFE, as Vice President, Franchise.  Belanger will oversee the company's franchising efforts, including sales and franchisee relations.

Thursday, October 30th

  • EAT declared a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share which will be payable Dec. 26, 2014 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 5, 2014.


Sector Performance

The XLY (+2.6%) underperformed the SPX (+2.7%) with both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, outperforming the SPX.


Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 3

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 4


XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative setup, the sector remains bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.


Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 5


Casual Dining Restaurants

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 6

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 7


Quick Service Restaurants

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 8

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 9


Howard Penney

Managing Director


Fred Masotta


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.