Takeaway: This is going to get really ugly.
Takeaway: Putin's got some major problems.
Russia remains one of our preferred country shorts on Oil Deflation. We shorted it last Thursday in Real-Time Alerts. Russian equities are in full-blown crash mode now down -22% year-to-date.
Our macro team is doing a lot of work right now on whether or not Japan and Europe opting to devalue will ultimately result in eventual Russian economic collapse.
It’s an important question to ask as oil trades below $80, and Vladimir Putin’s Russian budget is reportedly based on oil trading at $100.
We will be hosting a conference call today at 11:00am EDT with renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen to discuss the upcoming midterm elections.
Mr. Rasmussen will provide a 30 minute presentation on potential election outcomes followed by an open Q&A moderated by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.
Mr. Rasmussen was referred to by the Washington Post as "a driving force in American politics" and been called "America's insurgent pollster". He has widely been considered one of the more accurate pollsters in the nation and the one who is most in touch with subtle opinion shifts in the electorate.
KEY QUESTIONS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE
- What are the probable outcomes nationwide for both the Senate and House of Representatives?
- Which races are most likely to end in surprise?
- What are the implications of this election for politics, economics, and policy?
- Post the results, what are the implications for the President and both parties in various outcome scenarios?
- Toll Free Number:
- Direct Dial Number:
- Conference Code: 399212#
- Materials: CLICK HERE (slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)
ABOUT SCOTT RASMUSSEN
Founder and president of Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen is a political analyst, New York Times bestselling author, public speaker and independent public opinion pollster.
In 2012, Rasmussen became a New York Times bestselling author with his book The People's Money. His earlier books include Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System and In Search of Self-Governance.
Rasmussen and his firm have developed a reputation for delivering reliable, newsworthy and actionable public opinion data. Slate.com's Mickey Kaus declared in 2009, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen." The Washington Examiner's Michael Barone calls him "one of America's most innovative pollsters." Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, say that Scott has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
In 2008, Rasmussen projected then-Senator Barack Obama would win the presidential election by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen was within half a percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both President Bush and Senator Kerry.
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10/27/14 Monday Mashup: BWLD, BJRI and More
10/28/14 New Best Idea: Short CHUY
10/31/14 SBUX: Short Thesis Firmly Intact
Events This Week
Monday, November 3rd
- TXRH earnings call 5:00am EST
Tuesday, November 4th
- BKW earnings call 8:30am EST
- BLMN earnings call 9:00am EST
- ARCO earnings call 10:00am EST
- RRGB earnings call 10:00am EST
- FRGI earnings call 4:30pm EST
- JMBA earnings call 5:00pm EST
- PBPB earnings call 5:00pm EST
- CHUY earnings call 5:00pm EST
Wednesday, November 5th
- PZZA earnings call 8:00am EST
- DAVE earnings call 8:30am EST
- TAST earnings call 8:30am EST
- THI earnings call 10:30am EST
- RUTH earnings call 4:30pm EST
- NDLS earnings call 4:30pm EST
Thursday, November 6th
- WEN earnings call 9:00am EST
- LOCO earnings call 4:30pm EST
- BBRG earnings call 5:00pm EST
Chart of the Day
SBUX global traffic has now decelerated for five consecutive quarters, coming in at 1% in 4QF14.
Recent News Flow
Monday, October 27th
- DIN upgraded to buy from neutral at Longbow.
- DIN increased its quarterly cash dividend by 17% to $0.875 per share of common stock; share repurchase authorization increased to $100 million.
- PLKI announced the launch of its new Buttermilk Biscuit Butterfly Shrimp.
Tuesday, October 28th
- CAKE announced the opening of its newest restaurant (8,000 sq. ft.) at the Fayette Mall in Lexington, Kentucky.
- BWLD upgraded to outperform at RW Baird with a $180 PT.
Wednesday, October 29th
- DIN downgraded to market perform at Telsey Advisory Group.
- JMBA upgraded to outperform from neutral at Wedbush with a $17 PT.
- LOCO names Mark A. Belanger, CFE, as Vice President, Franchise. Belanger will oversee the company's franchising efforts, including sales and franchisee relations.
Thursday, October 30th
- EAT declared a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share which will be payable Dec. 26, 2014 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 5, 2014.
The XLY (+2.6%) underperformed the SPX (+2.7%) with both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, outperforming the SPX.
XLY Quantitative Setup
From a quantitative setup, the sector remains bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.
Casual Dining Restaurants
Quick Service Restaurants
Note: Using the z-score in the tables below as a coefficient of variation for standard error helps us flag the relative market positioning of the commodities in the CRB Index. It is not intended as a predictive signal for the reversion to trailing twelve month historical averages. For week-end price data, please refer to “Commodities: Weekly Quant” published at the end of the previous week. Feel free to ping us for additional color.
1. CFTC Net Futures and Options Positioning CRB Index: The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases “Commitments of Traders Reports” at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday. The release usually includes data from the previous Tuesday (Net Positions as of Tuesday Close), and includes the net positions of “non-commercial” futures and options participants. A “Non-Commercial” market participant is defined as a “speculator.” We observe the weekly marginal changes in the overall positioning of “non-commercial” futures and options positions to assess the directionally-biased capitulation risk among those with large, speculative positions.
The SOYBEANS, COTTON, AND WHEAT markets experienced the most BULLISH relative positioning change in the CRB week-over-week
The SUGAR, COCOA, AND HEATING OIL markets experienced the most BEARISH relative positioning change in the CRB week-over-week
2. Spot – Second Month Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward looking prices in the near-term.
- The ORANGE JUICE, CORN, AND WHEAT markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES near-term
- The COTTON, LIVE CATTLE, AND HEATING OIL markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES near-term
3. Spot – 1 Year Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward-looking prices between spot and the respective contract expiring 1-year later.
- The SUGAR, CORN, AND WHEAT markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES in 1-year
- The LEAN HOGS, LIVE CATTLE, AND SOYBEANS markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES in 1-year
4. Open Interest: Aggregate open interest measures the amount of opened positions in all actively traded futures contract months. Open interest can be thought of as “naked” or “directionally-biased” contracts as opposed to hedgers scalping and providing liquidity. Most of the open interest is created from large speculators or participants who are either: 1) Producers/sellers of the physical commodity hedging their cash market exposure or 2) Large speculators who are directionally-biased on price.
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