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Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 1

Recent Notes

10/27/14 Monday Mashup: BWLD, BJRI and More

10/28/14 New Best Idea: Short CHUY

10/31/14 SBUX: Short Thesis Firmly Intact

11/02/14 New Best Idea: Long YUM – Vulnerable to Activism

Events This Week

Monday, November 3rd

  • TXRH earnings call 5:00am EST

Tuesday, November 4th

  • BKW earnings call 8:30am EST
  • BLMN earnings call 9:00am EST
  • ARCO earnings call 10:00am EST
  • RRGB earnings call 10:00am EST
  • FRGI earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • JMBA earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • PBPB earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • CHUY earnings call 5:00pm EST

Wednesday, November 5th

  • PZZA earnings call 8:00am EST
  • DAVE earnings call 8:30am EST
  • TAST earnings call 8:30am EST
  • THI earnings call 10:30am EST
  • RUTH earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • NDLS earnings call 4:30pm EST

Thursday, November 6th 

  • WEN earnings call 9:00am EST
  • LOCO earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • BBRG earnings call 5:00pm EST

Chart of the Day

SBUX global traffic has now decelerated for five consecutive quarters, coming in at 1% in 4QF14.

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 2

Recent News Flow

Monday, October 27th

  • DIN upgraded to buy from neutral at Longbow.
  • DIN increased its quarterly cash dividend by 17% to $0.875 per share of common stock; share repurchase authorization increased to $100 million.
  • PLKI announced the launch of its new Buttermilk Biscuit Butterfly Shrimp.

Tuesday, October 28th

  • CAKE announced the opening of its newest restaurant (8,000 sq. ft.) at the Fayette Mall in Lexington, Kentucky.
  • BWLD upgraded to outperform at RW Baird with a $180 PT.

Wednesday, October 29th

  • DIN downgraded to market perform at Telsey Advisory Group.
  • JMBA upgraded to outperform from neutral at Wedbush with a $17 PT.
  • LOCO names Mark A. Belanger, CFE, as Vice President, Franchise.  Belanger will oversee the company's franchising efforts, including sales and franchisee relations.

Thursday, October 30th

  • EAT declared a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share which will be payable Dec. 26, 2014 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 5, 2014.

Sector Performance

The XLY (+2.6%) underperformed the SPX (+2.7%) with both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, outperforming the SPX.

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 3

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 4

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative setup, the sector remains bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 5

Casual Dining Restaurants

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 6

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 7

Quick Service Restaurants

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 8

Monday Mashup: CHUY, SBUX and More - 9

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Fred Masotta