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BYD 3Q 2014 CONFERENCE CALL NOTES

Takeaway: Our positive regional call is likely to extend a little longer with decent October #s coming out and, of course, the REIT euphoria

Consistent with our earnings preview, another regional operator beats. Stock should be on steroids tomorrow due to the conference call REIT discussion

 

 

CONF CALL

  • Southern Nevada economy continues to strengthen
  • Gold Coast/the Orleans did particularly well
  • Las Vegas:  Non-gaming amenities demand is increasing
  • Downtown:  seeing benefits from Fremont Street and new Zipline experience; also benefited from increased Hawaii visitation
  • Regionals:  margins were up at 9 of 12 properties.  YoY revenue declines are narrowing.  
  • Delta Downs:  record 3Q EBITDA (beating previous record by 10% and gained share).  While there will be an impact from Golden Nugget Lake Charles later in 2014, they remain confident Delta Downs EBITDA will grow 6% YoY.
  • IP EBITDA operating margins grew 170bps.  Blue Chip grew market share in each month in 3Q.  Strong visitation growth (+5%) for Blue Chip.  
  • Kansas Star EBITDA down 5% on lower revenues.  43% operating margin. Spend per visit up slightly but declines from visitation from casual players.
  • Par-a-dice impacted by the new 18k VLTs
  • Borgata:  hotel business also strong driven by cash rates.  Closure of competitors have resulted in a bigger customer database.  Also saw additional convention business and better occupancy since early Sept.
  • Borgata online:  profitable throughout 3Q.  Expect further improvement in 4Q.
  • Goals:  1) Reduce debt,  2) target property initiatives (e.g. opened sports bar at SunCoast, in December will update 400 rooms at SunCoast, new Asian restaurant in Downtown hotel, hotel work in IP will be done by January 2015, Kansas Star expansion will be done by end of 2014 - drive higher visitation by 2015), 3) long-term shareholder value (REIT conversion/spin study) 
  • Reduced debt by $70m in 3Q; solidly on track to repay $200m debt in 2014 (YTD: $165m).  Have reduced debt by $700mm since 2013.
  • Potential REIT possibility: have spent $3m studying this....it's possible with certain circumstances.
  • 3Q capex: $41m - $9m (peninsula), $3m borgata); YTD: $95m
  • FY2014 capex: $110m (Boyd/Peninsula), $25m (Borgata)
  • FY 2014 EBITDA guidance: $590-600m (high end of previous guidance)
    • under Borgata deconsolidated basis, FY EBITDA guidance:  $576-586m
  • Guidance assumptions:
    • Normal weather
    • Current trends continue
    • Normal hold at Borgata (low hold in 4Q 2013)
    • No Downtown $2m favorable tax items seen in 4Q 2013),
    • No Midwest/South $9.3m tax benefit for Blue Chip in 4Q 2013
    • Adverse Golden Nugget Lake Charles impact.  Previously, had not included its impact 
    • Peninsula:  expect YoY EBITDA trends in 3Q to continue in 4Q
    • Borgata:  4Q ($7m property tax reductions)
    • Borgata items not in guidance:  2 remaining tax appeals (one-time $88m (2011-2013 property tax settlement- will be used to reduce debt), 2010 tax refund being appealed by city of AC

 

Q & A

  • Regional trends:  still more of the same consumer environment but getting less bad.
  • Las Vegas Locals:  all the growth came from non-gaming, broad-based across the properties.  Gaming revenue was flattish.
  • Resorts World Genting haven't started construction yet.  
  • There are not enough construction workers available for some of the Vegas projects.
  • Atlantic City strategy: picking up business in conventions and nightlife.  Will not overspend to capture new customers as a result of the closures
  • REIT:  not saying yes or no at this point; it would be obvious if we are going to go in a different direction
  • How did 3Q compare to BYD's internal guidance?  Generally performed in the middle of the range.
  • Sept 2014 was less bad than Sept 2013
  • December was very weak last year
  • Possible Revel re-opening?  Would bring more customers to the market.
  • Pokerstars entering NJ I-gaming?  no comment. Pokerstars is involved with NJ authorities.
  • Lower gas prices impact:  historically, have seen fairly quick reactions but people react less nowadays
  • AC bond issue for tax refund:  expect by at year-end
  • Delta Downs impacted by lower oil prices?  Too early to tell.  Oil price changes are transitory.
  • IP:  market is flat/up a little bit but the property is competing better. Focused on EBITDA.
  • As managing partner, BYD would recommend to MGM to refinance 9% 7/8 Borgata debt. 
  • Tribal/Native gaming opportunities:  a few years into the future



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HILTON: TRICK OR TREAT - A LITTLE OF BOTH

CALL TO ACTION

Hilton Worldwide will report Q3 2014 results tomorrow and we expect another beat and raise event (the treat).  However, we also very shortly expect a Halloween surprise – a secondary equity offering of 90 million shares by Blackstone (the trick). We reiterate our positive view on Hilton and the lodging sector but remind investors to be sensitive to event timing.

 

Please see our note 

http://docs.hedgeye.com/HE_HILTON_TrickOrTreat_10.30.14.pdf


FLASHBACK: Hedgeye's Keith McCullough Warns About the Return of Deflation In This 2-Minute Video

Takeaway: #Quad4 is one of the most important macro trends we have identified for the quarter.

FLASHBACK: Hedgeye's Keith McCullough Warns About the Return of Deflation In This 2-Minute Video - 45

 

Before formally introducing #Quad4 as one of our top Q4 macro themes, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explained during an institutional call in September why we were likely heading into Quadrant 4 of his model. That’s when both growth and inflation slow.

 

For the record, during this call McCullough also advised getting long Utilities (XLU) which is up well over 6% since this video first aired, versus the S&P 500 which is down -1%.

#Quad4 is one of Hedgeye's Q4 2014 Macro Themes. In other words, it's one of the most important macro trends our macro team has identified for the quarter.

  • · #Quad4: Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.

Will There Be An October Surprise? Call with renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen

Will There Be An October Surprise?  Call with renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen - HE M octobersurprise

 

We will be hosting a conference call on Monday, November 3rd at 11:00am EDT with renowned pollster Scott Rasmussen to discuss the upcoming midterm elections.  

 

Mr. Rasmussen will provide a 30 minute presentation on potential election outcomes followed by an open Q&A moderated by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.

 

Mr. Rasmussen was referred to by the Washington Post as "a driving force in American politics" and been called "America's insurgent pollster". He has widely been considered one of the more accurate pollsters in the nation and the one who is most in touch with subtle opinion shifts in the electorate.

 

 

KEY QUESTIONS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE 

  • What are the probable outcomes nationwide for both the Senate and House of Representatives?
  • Which races are most likely to end in surprise?
  • What are the implications of this election for politics, economics, and policy?
  • Post the results, what are the implications for the President and both parties in various outcome scenarios?

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 399212#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE(slides will be available

    approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)

Ping for more information.

 

ABOUT SCOTT RASMUSSEN

Founder and president of Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen is a political analyst, New York Times bestselling author, public speaker and independent public opinion pollster. 

 

In 2012, Rasmussen became a New York Times bestselling author with his book The People's Money. His earlier books include Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System and In Search of Self-Governance.

 

Rasmussen and his firm have developed a reputation for delivering reliable, newsworthy and actionable public opinion data. Slate.com's Mickey Kaus declared in 2009, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen." The Washington Examiner's Michael Barone calls him "one of America's most innovative pollsters." Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, say that Scott has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

 

In 2008, Rasmussen projected then-Senator Barack Obama would win the presidential election by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen was within half a percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both President Bush and Senator Kerry.

 


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