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THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK

Takeaway: Our Macro Playbook is a daily 1-page summary of our core ETF recommendations, investment themes and proprietary quantitative market context.

CLICK HERE to view the document. In today’s edition, we highlight:

 

  1. How the recent spate of domestic economic data suggests you should continue to remain overweight Treasuries and munis as we await mass capitulation from both buy-side and sell-side consensus on bonds
  2. Adding ultra long-term Treasuries (EDV) to our Top-5 global macro long ideas in lieu of the Japanese yen, which is not providing us with the counter-cyclical exposure we had originally anticipated (inflation instead of deflation in Japan = lower real interest rates = less defensive when cross-asset volatility spikes)

 

Best of luck out there,

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed

Takeaway: With this [soon-to-be-revised-down, pre-election Q3 GDP print], the U.S. economy is squarely in #Quad4 and should remain there throughout Q4

This note was originally published October 30, 2014 at 08:49 in Macro

QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed - growth cartoon 10.08.2014

It’s busy morning for our Macro Team here at Hedgeye with Keith live on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo for the 9am hour, this Q3 GDP release and a busy day of customer meetings in New York. Fortuitously, we have a #process that allows us to quickly and appropriately contextualize this Q3 GDP “beat”:

 

QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed - 23

 

Yes, that’s #Quad4, and yes, #Quad4 is bearish for asset prices:

 

QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed - GIP Model Backtest

 

The good news for growth bulls is that the YoY number (i.e. the one 20 years of backtest data suggests the market actually cares about) came in above our +1.9% estimate at +2.3%. The bad news is that that figure is still down from +2.6% in Q3.

 

#GrowthSlowing, in rate-of-change terms.

 

Refer to our note from last night titled, “NERVOUS ABOUT GROWTH AND CAN’T SLEEP? WE DON’T BLAME YOU…” for more details on why the U.S. economy is set to slow further here in Q4. The 20 charts in that note are very easy to consume and startling, to say the least.

 

Best of luck out there!

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


Retail Callouts (10/30): RL, HBI, Apple Pay, Marc Jacobs, TGT, KATE, M

Takeaway: We saw what we needed to from RL. HBI is flirting with the penalty box. TGT free shipping math is perplexing.

EVENTS TO WATCH

 

Thursday (10/30)

COLM - Earnings Call: 5:00pm

 

 

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

RL - 2Q15 Earnings

This wasn't a perfect quarter by any means. Regardless of the EPS beat (off sandbagged guidance) the company deleveraged +4.1% revenue growth into a (-3.4%) EBIT decline, and 1.3% EPS growth.  Hardly something we'd expect from one of the preeminent companies in retail. But we moved the name from our Long Bench to our Core Longs last week, and we're glad we did.  Our rationale is that this is a quality name that is investing in both the P&L and balance sheet to reaccelerate growth in a Brand that probably has room to double globally.  Not many companies have that kind of opportunity. When we see a depressed multiple on a quality company that is doing the right thing to grow its footprint in a profitable way, we definitely get interested. We saw enough in the quarter that gives us confidence that RL earns at least $10/share next year suggesting a 16x p/e on a name that should have accelerating sales, margins and cash flow.

Retail Callouts (10/30): RL, HBI, Apple Pay, Marc Jacobs, TGT, KATE, M - 10 30 chart1

  

HBI - 3Q14 Earnings

Takeaway: We've had HBI on our Long Bench -- not because we like the base business -- but because the company has such meaningful upside in earnings and cash flow due to its acquisitions. We'll rarely laud a company that is a serial acquirer, but the reality is that it is diversifying away from a business with fierce competition, commodity pricing, and an unstable distribution base (at least on the department store side). But with consolidated EBIT growth slowing from 34% in 1Q, to 27% in 2Q, and now 23% in 3Q -- we're definitely less enthused. The DBA deal should accelerate in the upcoming quarter -- though it appears that this at least partially in company guidance. If there's one reason we're hanging in and doing more work, it's that we should soon start to see the positive impact of the 34% draw down in cotton costs over the past five months.

Retail Callouts (10/30): RL, HBI, Apple Pay, Marc Jacobs, TGT, KATE, M - 10 30 chart2

 

Apple Pay Rival CurrentC Hacked During Test of Payments Tech

(http://www.wwd.com/business-news/technology/apple-pay-rival-currentc-hacked-during-test-of-payments-tech-8013198?module=hp-wirestories)

 

  • "CurrentC, the retailer-backed mobile-payment system touted as an alternative to Apple Inc.’s platform, was hacked during a test of the technology, resulting in some e-mail addresses being stolen."

 

Takeaway: Unfortunately, when your credibility is entirely based on delivering a secure payment mechanism and you get hacked during your maiden voyage, it's potentially terminal.

 

Marc Jacobs, for Marc Jacobs, by Marc Jacobs

While this is hysterical at face value, Jacobs -- who is likely to go public at some point -- occasionally does satirical things like this with product. This was a particularly good one. "Jacobs by Marc Jacobs for Marc Jacobs in collaboration with Marc Jacobs for Marc by Marc Jacobs"

 Retail Callouts (10/30): RL, HBI, Apple Pay, Marc Jacobs, TGT, KATE, M - 10 30 chart3

 

TGT - Shipping Pencils

Takeaway: We already know that Target fired the first shot across competitors' bow with free shipping this holiday on everything -- with no spending threshold. So we tested it out. Here's an order for a package of pencils for $1.22. The company claims to pay the $5.49 for shipping. In reality, the real shipping charge is nowhere near that.  It's probably closer to $1.50. But do the math. $1.22 at a 30% GM = $0.37 in gross profit. There's the labor cost to handle the order -- but let's give TGT the benefit of the doubt that this is included in the $1.50 shipping charge. We're talking a loss of ($1.13) on an order of $1.22. Not good. We're not exactly concerned about mass ordering of pencils, hair scrunchies, and cheap lipstick. It's not financially material. But we are very concerned that this sets a precedent for future discounting behavior. Retailers are realizing that free shipping (and ultimately free returns) is a (temporary) competitive advantage. We still think that shipping charges will be a distant memory to consumers within 2 years. Bad for retailers with a low basket size like TGT and KSS.

Retail Callouts (10/30): RL, HBI, Apple Pay, Marc Jacobs, TGT, KATE, M - 10 30 chart4

 

 

OTHER NEWS

 

KATE - THE KATE SPADE GAP KIDS COLLECTION HAS US BASICALLY ALL WISHING WE COULD BE A KID AGAIN

(http://www.bustle.com/articles/46529-the-kate-spade-gap-kids-collection-has-us-basically-all-wishing-we-could-be-a-kid)

 

  • "Big things are once again happening in the Spade family world. Kate Spade New York and Jack Spade have partnered up with Gap Kids to launch a holiday line exclusively for the little ones. On Oct. 30, kiddos can shop the collection during its two-week run. The collaboration is a pretty big deal for the Spades — it’s the first time the husband-and-wife duo have paired up to design a line and marks their debut into the children’s world."

 

M - Macy’s introduces Holiday Arcade in-store shops

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/macy%E2%80%99s-introduces-holiday-arcade-store-shops)

 

  • "For the upcoming holiday season, Macy’s is introducing the Holiday Arcade---in-store gifting shops that will launch at six Macy’s locations from late October through mid-November, including Macy’s South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, Calif., Macy’s Union Square in San Francisco, Calif., Macy’s Dadeland in Miami, Fla., Macy’s State Street in Chicago, Macy’s Herald Square in Manhattan, N.Y., and Macy’s Center City in Philadelphia."
  • "Holiday Arcade gifting items will include: Build-A-Bear Workshop shop-in-shops at the Costa Mesa, San Francisco, Chicago, Manhattan and Philadelphia locations, as well as Seedling stocking stuffers, a Paddington Bear toy and apparel collection, Harry Barker dog gifts, Curious George merchandise, Madame Alexander dolls, Lionel trains, and Boo & Grumpy Cat toys from Gund."

 

KATE - Study: Kate Spade provides best online customer service in September

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/study-kate-spade-provides-best-online-customer-service-september)

 

  • "Kate Spade provided the best overall customer service in Sept. 2014. This marks the retailer’s first time topping Stella Benchmarks from customer service research firm Stella Service in 2014. The retailer ranked in every area measured across fulfillment and customer care."

 

LOW - LOWE’S TESTS CUSTOMER SERVICE BOTS IN THE U.S.

(http://www.marketingmag.ca/brands/lowes-tests-customer-service-bots-in-the-u-s-128647)

 

  • "The robots are coming. Lowe‘s is testing whether new bots on wheels can improve its customer service, like helping a shopper find a match for something as simple as a nail."
  • "Four robots are being tested an Orchard Supply Hardware store owned by Lowe’s Companies Inc. in San Jose, California."
  • "The robots dubbed OSHbots look like white columns with two large black screens on either side of them, and wheels to help them move. They are equipped with 3D cameras so they can scan and identify items. And customers can research items they want to buy on their screen. Then the robot can lead them to the aisle where an item is located."

 

RSH - RadioShack Hires Ex-Treasury Adviser to Help With Comeback

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/radioshack-names-ex-treasury-adviser-as-revitalization-officer-.html)

 

  • "RadioShack Corp. (RSH) named former U.S. Treasury Department adviser Harry Wilson as its chief revitalization officer, enlisting a turnaround expert who helped restructure General Motors and Chrysler."
  • "Wilson, founder of the advisory firm Maeva Group, will report to RadioShack’s board and Chief Executive Officer Joe Magnacca, the Fort Worth, Texas-based company said today in a statement."

 

JWN - Study: Nordstrom--online and in-store--top luxury retailer

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/study-nordstrom-online-and-store-top-luxury-retailer)

 

  • "According to the group's 2014 Luxury Multichannel Engagement Index, Nordstrom had the highest incidence of customers spending online (26%) and in-store (45%). It also led in its share of total fashion spend (17%)."
  • "Bergdorf Goodman was the top-rated luxury retailer for in-store engagement with an in-store LMEI score of 8.17 out of 10. Ranking second for in-store engagement is Barneys New York (7.90), and Neiman Marcus (7.85) ranked third."

 

Boohoo Opening First Physical Store

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/specialty-stores/boohoo-gets-physical-8014255?module=hp-topstories)

 

  • "With prices mirroring Forever 21, production cycles similar to those of Zara and a focus on content production à la Asos, Boohoo.com is in a prime position to take on the U.S. market."

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QUICK HIT ON Q3 GDP: #Quad4 CONFIRMED

Takeaway: With this [soon-to-be-revised-down, pre-election Q3 GDP print], the U.S. economy is squarely in #Quad4 and should remain there throughout Q4

It’s busy morning for our Macro Team here at Hedgeye with Keith live on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo for the 9am hour, this Q3 GDP release and a busy day of customer meetings in New York. Fortuitously, we have a #process that allows us to quickly and appropriately contextualize this Q3 GDP “beat”:

 

QUICK HIT ON Q3 GDP: #Quad4 CONFIRMED - UNITED STATES

 

Yes, that’s #Quad4, and yes, #Quad4 is bearish for asset prices:

 

QUICK HIT ON Q3 GDP: #Quad4 CONFIRMED - GIP Model Backtest

 

The good news for growth bulls is that the YoY number (i.e. the one 20 years of backtest data suggests the market actually cares about) came in above our +1.9% estimate at +2.3%. The bad news is that that figure is still down from +2.6% in Q3.

 

#GrowthSlowing, in rate-of-change terms.

 

Refer to our note from last night titled, “NERVOUS ABOUT GROWTH AND CAN’T SLEEP? WE DON’T BLAME YOU…” for more details on why the U.S. economy is set to slow further here in Q4. The 20 charts in that note are very easy to consume and startling, to say the least.

 

Best of luck out there!

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed

Takeaway: The most recent ICI fund flow survey produced the first robust domestic equity fund result in 5 months with taxable fixed income in outflow

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

 

The most recent ICI mutual fund survey showed a reprieve from the drastic domestic equity fund outflows of the past 5 months with a solid $4.6 billion inflow coming into U.S. stock funds last week. Despite this one week uptick, domestic stock funds have had outflow in 24 of the past 26 weeks with over $57 billion lost which continues to be supportive of our underweight recommendations on the U.S. equity asset managers. In other important trends, the bleeding in taxable bond funds continued with another $5.1 billion redemption being yanked from the category. This dislocation in taxable fixed income has largely come about with the transfer of Bill Gross from PIMCO to Janus Capital and in aggregate has put over $35 billion in motion over past 4 weeks. Fixed Income ETFs have been a direct beneficiary with over $17 billion picked up in those products during the same time. In addition, BlackRock has been mentioned in several media outlets as also having picked up new assets-under-management (AUM). There still has been di minimus mention of any new Janus gains with the Gross addition however the October Simfund report will be out next week which will highlight AUM wins at the manager level. We are still skeptical that the magnitude of any Janus wins will match the market cap rise in shares of the company (see our ongoing view on Janus in the research link enclosed). In ETF trends detailed below, we highlight that the Basic Materials ETF (XLB) took in $328 million of new money last week or a 9% gain in total AUM. Conversely, investor interest waned in the XLU or the Utilities Sector SPDR, with a 5% net redemption in that ETF. In addition, despite all the noise around the energy patch over the past several months, the XLE or the Energy Sector SPDR has still added 34% to its total AUM in 2014 which could mean the blood letting in that group could continue.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 1

 

 

Hedgeye Research - Mantaining Shorts on the Equity Asset Managers After Earnings 

 

 

In the most recent 5 day period ending October 22nd, total equity mutual funds put up solid inflows with $6.0 billion coming into the category according to the Investment Company Institute. The composition of the inflow for the first time in over 7 months was weighted towards Domestic stock funds which had a $4.6 billion inflow supporting the $1.3 billion which came into International stock funds. The two equity categories have been a tale of two cities all year with International stock funds having had inflow in 41 of the past 42 weeks. Conversely, domestic trends have been very soft with inflow in just 14 weeks of the 42 weeks thus far year-to-date and have been drastically negative the past 6 months with just 2 weeks of inflow in the past 26 weeks. While one week does yet make a trend, it will be worth watching if the current equity rally spurs domestic investors to change their recent risk aversion. The running year-to-date weekly average for all equity fund flow continues to decline however and now settles at a $1.1 billion inflow, now well below the $3.0 billion weekly average inflow from 2013. 

 

Fixed income mutual fund flow had another drawdown in the most recent ICI data succumbing to more net selling from the dislocation at large bond fund manager PIMCO. Total bond funds lost another $4.9 billion last week with the distribution focused within the taxable bond fund category which lost another $5.1 billion in the most recent 5 days. This brings the "money in motion" or the taxable outflow to over $35 billion in the past 4 weeks. Municipal or tax-free bond funds put up a $139 million inflow, making it 40 of 41 weeks with positive subscriptions. The 2014 weekly average for fixed income mutual funds now stands at a $900 million weekly inflow, an improvement from 2013's weekly average outflow of $1.5 billion, but still a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly average inflow from 2012 (our view of the blow off top in bond fund inflow). 

 

ETF results were very mixed during the week with substantial outflows in equity funds but subscriptions in passive fixed income products mopping up the ongoing redemption in taxable bond funds. Equity ETFs suffered a $9.4 billion redemption while fixed income ETFs put up a $6.6 billion subscription, the biggest inflow in 9 months (undoubtedly taking in some of that taxable fixed income fund money in motion). The 2014 weekly averages are now a $1.5 billion weekly inflow for equity ETFs and a $1.0 billion weekly inflow for fixed income ETFs. 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative $5.0 billion spread for the week (-$3.3 billion of total equity outflow versus the $1.6 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $3.3 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $27.2 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.5 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). The 52 week moving average chart displays the declining demand for all equity products (funds and ETFs) for the safety and security of fixed income. 

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the running weekly year-to-date average for 2014 and the weekly quarter-to-date average for 4Q 2014:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 2

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 3

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 4

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 5

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 6

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow Within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI) and the running weekly year-to-date average for 2014 and the weekly quarter-to-date average for 4Q 2014. The third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 7

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 8

 

Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In specific callouts, the Basic Materials ETF (XLB) took in $328 million of new money last week or a 9% gain in total AUM. Conversely, investor interest waned in the XLU or the Utilities Sector SPDR, with a 5% net redemption in that ETF. In addition, despite all the noise around the energy patch over the past several months, the XLE or the Energy Sector SPDR has still added 34% to its total AUM thus far in 2014 which could mean the blood letting in that group could continue.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 9

 

 

Net Results:

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative $5.0 billion spread for the week (-$3.3 billion of total equity outflow versus the $1.6 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $3.3 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $27.2 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.5 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). The 52 week moving average chart displays the declining demand for all equity products (funds and ETFs) for the safety and security of fixed income. 

 

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 10

 

Exposures: The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey - Domestic Equity Funds Perk Up with Taxable Fixed Income Still Getting Grossed - ICI chart 11 

 

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA


"Ebeta"

This note was originally published at 8am on October 16, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

Let them eat debt.”

-Dan Alpert

 

That’s how my friend Dan Alpert starts chapter 4 of a non-perma-bull book I have been reviewing as of late – The Age of Oversupply. It’s a play on Marie Antoinette telling those who were plundered by central planners in France to eat cake.

 

Ironically enough, it was on this day in 1793 that Marie was guillotined at the epicenter of the French Revolution. The People will only put up with negative real incomes and the all-time highs in cost of living for so long…

 

Right in the middle of our new bear cave (Hedgeye Headquarters in Stamford, CT), we have an office I painted pink (with fluffy white couches) that we call the Marie Antoinette Room. There’s a guillotine painted in black on the wall.

 

"Ebeta" - EL chart 2

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Yep, we do things a little differently over here. And thank God for that. If anyone who works for me bought the “bounce” in the Russell #Bubble (into yesterday’s close), we’d be having a little chat in the pink room today.

 

Newsflash: the world changed yesterday.

 

And I can’t for the life of me understand why money managers who haven’t been positioned for it for the last, say 3-6 weeks, wouldn’t respect that. There has never been a % move like that in the Treasury market (in that compressed window of time), ever. I call that part of the phase transition of market risk, The Waterfall.

 

The Waterfall isn’t ebola (or whatever bulls want to blame next). It’s levered-long hedge fund beta.

 

And until I get at least a dozen shorter-term hedge funds calling/emailing me (at the same time) and telling me we’re going to crash, we’re probably going lower.

 

“We”, in market terms – dammit I hate that word. This market isn’t we. That would include me, Mucker, as having some ownership in being long the US equity market. To be clear, I am long the Treasury Bond market – Long Bond style!

 

Back to the #behavioral point on fund manager positioning and sentiment…

 

Understand that this entire way down (-11.2% for the Russell 2000, -32% for the 10yr bond yield, -7.4% for the SP500), I have generally been asked about where “we bounce.”

 

The reason for that is pretty simple. In the Chart of The Day (exhibit 45 in our Q4 Macro Themes deck) you can see Hedge Fund Correlation to SP500 and Average Relative Performance (using a 60 month trailing correlation).

 

Punch-line: forget ebola – correlation to Ebeta for the levered-long beta chasing trade = +0.90-0.95

 

When the US equity market goes down, for real… that’s more dangerous than almost any data point you can give me other than the following 3-factor #Bubble chart (exhibit 52 in our Q4 Macro Themes deck) – Spread Risk:

 

  1. All-time low in credit spreads
  2. All-time low in cross-asset class volatility
  3. All-time high in debt outstanding

 

No, I didn’t need a one-on-one meeting with my favorite stock picker to come up with that… I am pretty sure that the CFO of the only company I hit the buy button on as of late in Real-Time Alerts (HCA) wouldn’t know what to do with it anyway.

 

Q: Who does?

 

A: No one

 

How could anyone tell you, with a straight face that, even though, they “don’t do macro”, they just know that buying the damn dip is going to work, in spite of coming off the all-time lows in volatility and highs in, well, everything?

 

To review why our call on rates really matters to cross asset class expectations (risk):

 

  1. Long-term rates shock consensus to the downside
  2. Yield Spread (leading indicator for US #GrowthSlowing) crashes -34% (10yr minus 2yr yield)
  3. Small caps, bank stocks, and anything illiquid credit junk gets slammed

 

In the non-it’s-different-this-time playbook, this is what is called an early-cycle slowdown. And from the all-time highs in debt outstanding, I don’t think piling on more of what hasn’t worked (Qe4) is going to make this better.

 

I am not trying to scare you, or be “not nice” about this. I like to be right as much as you do. “So”, I say, let whoever bought yesterday’s intraday bounce in the Russell #Bubble eat beta.

 

Tomorrow at 1PM EST I’ll be hosting a Hedgeye Flash Call#Bubble Or Bottom”, updating our Q4 Macro Themes. Ping sales@Hedgeye.com if you’d like to participate.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.01-2.22%

SPX 1833-1889

RUT 1038-1080

VIX 19.55-27.99

USD 84.76-85.79

Gold 1220-1251


Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

"Ebeta" - Chart of the Day


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