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Takeaway: With this [soon-to-be-revised-down, pre-election Q3 GDP print], the U.S. economy is squarely in #Quad4 and should remain there throughout Q4

This note was originally published October 30, 2014 at 08:49 in Macro

QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed - growth cartoon 10.08.2014

It’s busy morning for our Macro Team here at Hedgeye with Keith live on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo for the 9am hour, this Q3 GDP release and a busy day of customer meetings in New York. Fortuitously, we have a #process that allows us to quickly and appropriately contextualize this Q3 GDP “beat”:

QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed - 23

Yes, that’s #Quad4, and yes, #Quad4 is bearish for asset prices:

QUICK HIT | Peeling Back the Q3 GDP Onion: #Quad4 Is Confirmed - GIP Model Backtest

The good news for growth bulls is that the YoY number (i.e. the one 20 years of backtest data suggests the market actually cares about) came in above our +1.9% estimate at +2.3%. The bad news is that that figure is still down from +2.6% in Q3.

#GrowthSlowing, in rate-of-change terms.

Refer to our note from last night titled, “NERVOUS ABOUT GROWTH AND CAN’T SLEEP? WE DON’T BLAME YOU…” for more details on why the U.S. economy is set to slow further here in Q4. The 20 charts in that note are very easy to consume and startling, to say the least.

Best of luck out there!

DD

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team