*Short CHUY Call Today @11AM

Takeaway: We recently added CHUY to our Best Ideas list as a short. We'll be hosting a call today @11AM EST to review our thesis and field questions.

Call Details:

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 974734#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE


*Short CHUY Call Today @11AM - 10 29 2014 7 50 07 AM

Our short thesis focuses on the following:

  • Disappointing new unit productivity
  • Cash burn necessitates the current new unit growth rate
  • Rampant support from the biased bulls (read: high expectations, aggressive estimates)
  • Significant insider selling
  • Strong sell-side sentiment and unjustified premium multiple
  • Significant food inflation (dairy, beef, avocados, produce)
  • Overly optimistic consensus food and labor cost assumptions in 2H14
  • A lack of leverage in the business model considering higher year-over-year G&A, D&A and pre-opening spend
  • Aggressive 2H14 and 2015 EPS estimates
  • Approximately 30-40% downside to the name


Howard Penney

Managing Director


Fred Masotta



Takeaway: Not a bad Q3 - luck helped - but management tone confirms our thesis that estimates need to come down

Our suspicions were correct on Q3 but that doesn't change the outlook



Please see our note:

Japan, Europe and U.S. Small Caps

Client Talking Points


The Nikkei is +1.5% to -3.1% year-to-date and signals immediate-term TRADE overbought – we’ve been waiting to add this and more European equity shorts to Real Time Alerts and we’re going to see those selling opportunities now.


The DAX is +0.6%, but Italy, Spain, and Russia have all turned red, which is weird, because we thought ECB President Mario Draghi said he has banned deflation. As Europe’s economy slows, we think gravity wins this time – sell European Equities.


Big bounce in the Russell 2000 to immediate-term TRADE overbought within its bearish TREND. The Russell 2000 would have to close > 1181 to recapture intermediate-term TREND support; still -5% from her all-time #bubble high and no support to 1067.

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.


We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).


Restoration Hardware remains our Retail Team’s highest-conviction long idea. We think that most parts of the thesis are at least acknowledged by the market (category growth, real estate expansion), but people are absolutely missing how all the pieces are coming together to drive such outsized earnings growth over an extremely long duration. The punchline of our real estate analysis is that a) RH stores could get far bigger than even the RH bulls seem to think, b) Aside from reconfiguring 66 existing markets, there’s another 19 markets we identified where the spending rate on home furnishings by people making over $100k in income suggests that RH should expand to these markets with Design Galleries, and c) the availability and economics on large properties for all these markets are far better than people think. The consensus is looking for long-term earnings growth of 28% -- we’re looking for 45%.  

Three for the Road


COPPER: bangs the top-end of her 2.95-3.10 immediate-term risk range #sell



Are you gonna bark all day, little doggy, or are you gonna bite?

-Reservoir Dogs


864 million,  the number of daily active Facebook users as reported by the company Tuesday night. That represents a 19% increase compared to the prior year.

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Takeaway: Our Macro Playbook is a daily 1-page summary of our core ETF recommendations, investment themes and proprietary quantitative market context

CLICK HERE to view the document. In today’s edition, we highlight:


  1. The continued breakdown in Commodities as a primary asset class and what we view as the directional drivers from here
  2. Sell the news on Ebola? That's certainly what the cocoa market is telling us; this crowded trade (i.e. net long of cocoa) is screening as a short across our compendium of quant signals


Best of luck out there,


Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

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