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Call Today | Ebola is in New York City; Should We Be Worried?

Takeaway: Our Healthcare team has extended the invite for this event. Feel free to call in today at 1pm EDT

Call Today | Ebola is in New York City; Should We Be Worried? - HE H ebolanyc

The Hedgeye Healthcare team will be hosting a specialist call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman today at 1:00pm EDT to learn more about  the current Ebola virus situation in the U.S. and specifically New York.  

  

What are the real versus perceived risks? Will things get worse? How will we know when its getting better?   

 

Dr. Shaman will provide an informed perspective to better understand recent developments, including the global response in Africa, the handling of confirmed cases in the U.S. and Spain, the naming of a Ebola Czar, as well as what we should expect in the immediate future. We'll discuss Dr. Shaman's research on forecasting and controlling the ongoing outbreak in Africa, the probability of a significant outbreak outside of Africa, and the timeline for bringing the disease under control, which Dr. Shaman estimates will take another 12 to 18 months.   

 

 

CALL DETAILS

In the interest of public service, this call will be open and free of charge.

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 651216#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (the slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)

Contact for more information.

 

 

ABOUT JEFFREY SHAMAN, PhD

Dr. Shaman is an Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at Colombia University, a junior faculty fellow of the Earth Institute, a faculty fellow of the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, and a member of the Center for Environmental Health in Northern Manhattan. He is also affiliated with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.  Dr. Shaman received a BA in biology from the University of Pennsylvania, and an MA, M.Ph. and PhD in climate science from Columbia University. He was a NOAA post-­-doctoral fellow in climate and global change at Harvard University.

 

His research interests include: infectious disease, vector and pathogen ecology, health in the indoor and built environment, large-­-scale climate dynamics, the hydrologic cycle, and climate and disease forecast. Much of his present research focuses on developing model-­-inference systems for the forecast of infectious diseases, including influenza, West Nile virus and Ebola. 


Daily Trading Ranges, Refreshed [UNLOCKED]

Editor's note: This unlocked edition of Daily Trading Ranges was originally sent to subscribers on October 28, 2014 at 07:44. Click here to learn more and to subscribe.

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REAL COST OF PRODUCING TIGHT OIL AND SHALE GAS: FACT VS. FICTION W/ SPECIALIST LEONARDO MAUGERI

REAL COST OF PRODUCING TIGHT OIL AND SHALE GAS: FACT VS. FICTION W/ SPECIALIST LEONARDO MAUGERI - Marketing Image vF

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team will be hosting a conference call TODAY (Tuesday, October 28th at 11:00am EDT) on two misunderstood but heated topics in the energy space:

  1. The technological advances in oil and gas extraction from shale resources and its impact on the marginal cost of tight oil and shale gas production
  2. The opportunities and obstacles for U.S. participation in global LNG trade

On the call, we will be joined by specialist Leonardo Maugeri, former executive of Eni S.p.A., Italy's largest energy company. Dr. Maugeri is currently an associate with the Geopolitics of Energy Project and the Environment and Natural Resources Program at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

 

CALL OBJECTIVES

  • Dispel the un-factual conclusions creating the wide variance in perceived production costs associated with U.S. shale plays with an analysis of the wide differences in production costs within just one shale play (regional analysis within Bakken). As a whole, consensus underestimates the technological and logistical advancement of oil and gas extraction from shale resources.
  • U.S. LNG is the most competitive of any non-traditional source globally, but because of all the essential infrastructural and logistical investments that must take place, current natural gas prices are a large burden for private investment.

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 494176#

Ping  for more information.

 

 

ABOUT LEONARDO MAUGERI

Dr. Maugeri is currently an Associate for the Environment and Natural Resources Program at Harvard's Geopolitics of Energy Project. He is also executive director of the board of Vitale&Associati, an Italian investment bank, and chairman of Ironbark Investments, a U.S. based investment fund.

 

Prior to his current post he held the title of Executive Chairman of Polimeri Europa, Eni's Petrochemical Branch, from March 2010-June 2011. Before Polimeri, Dr. Maugeri spent eight years as Senior Executive Vice President of Strategies and Development at Eni S.p.A. from 2000-2010.

 

Dr. Maugeri has gained recognition for researching and predicting the shale gas and tight oil boom In the early 2000s. He has written four books on energy including the following:

  • The Age of Oil: the Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource
  • Beyond the Age of Oil: The Myths and Realities of Fossil Fuels and Their Alternatives

In addition to his involvement in the Geopolitics of Energy Project, he is a member of MIT's External Advisory Board, an International Counselor of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.), a member of the Global Energy Advisory Board of Accenture, and a senior fellow of the Foreign Policy Association (New York). 

 

Macro Team


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%

Call Today | Ebola is in New York City; Should We Be Worried?

Call Today | Ebola is in New York City; Should We Be Worried?  - HE H ebolanyc

 

The Hedgeye Healthcare team will be hosting a specialist call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman today at 1:00pm EDT to learn more about  the current Ebola virus situation in the U.S. and specifically New York.  

  

What are the real versus perceived risks? Will things get worse? How will we know when its getting better?   

 

Dr. Shaman will provide an informed perspective to better understand recent developments, including the global response in Africa, the handling of confirmed cases in the U.S. and Spain, the naming of a Ebola Czar, as well as what we should expect in the immediate future. We'll discuss Dr. Shaman's research on forecasting and controlling the ongoing outbreak in Africa, the probability of a significant outbreak outside of Africa, and the timeline for bringing the disease under control, which Dr. Shaman estimates will take another 12 to 18 months.   

 

 

CALL DETAILS

In the interest of public service, this call will be open and free of charge.

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 651216#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (the slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)

Contact for more information.

 

 

ABOUT JEFFREY SHAMAN, PhD

Dr. Shaman is an Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at Colombia University, a junior faculty fellow of the Earth Institute, a faculty fellow of the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, and a member of the Center for Environmental Health in Northern Manhattan. He is also affiliated with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.  Dr. Shaman received a BA in biology from the University of Pennsylvania, and an MA, M.Ph. and PhD in climate science from Columbia University. He was a NOAA post-­-doctoral fellow in climate and global change at Harvard University.

 

His research interests include: infectious disease, vector and pathogen ecology, health in the indoor and built environment, large-­-scale climate dynamics, the hydrologic cycle, and climate and disease forecast. Much of his present research focuses on developing model-­-inference systems for the forecast of infectious diseases, including influenza, West Nile virus and Ebola. 


LEISURE LETTER (10/28/2014)

Tickers:  SGMS, GTCH.MI, MAR

EVENTS

  • Oct 28:
    • HEDGEYE EBOLA CALL 1 pm , code 651216#
    • GLPI Q3 earnings 10 am
    • HOT Q3 earnings 11:30 am , code 10325720
    • WYNN Q3 earnings 4:30 pm , pw 16870074
    • MAR Q3 earnings 5 pm , ID 59390131
  • Oct 29: H Q3 earnings 11:30 am code 95150754
  • Oct 30:
    • HST Q3 earnings 10 am
    • NCLH Q3 earnings 10 am
    • MGM Q3 earnings 11 am , pw 6307991
    • BYD Q3 earnings 5 pm , pw 8021592
  • Nov 3:
    • BEE Q3 earnings 11 am , pw 37266467
    • SHO Q3 earnings 12n , ID 75906336
  • Nov 4: RHP Q3 earnings 10 am
  • Nov 6:
    • PNK Q3 earnings 10 am , code 27759617
    • BEL Q3 earnings 10 am , ID 12457691

COMPANY NEWS

SGMS(Bloomberg) Scientific Games Banks Said to Put Off $3.19bn Bridge Loan Sale.  JPMorgan, BofA and DB, which were hired by SGMS to underwrite and sell the bridge loan, failed to gather interest from investors by an Oct. 3 deadline.  According to sources, the bridge loan debt includes a $485 million seven-year secured portion that pays interest at 5.75 percent, a $2.2 billion eight-year unsecured bridge slice that pays 7.25 percent and a $500 million 10-year unsecured loan that pays at least 7.75 percent.  The rate on all three loans would increase by 0.5% every 90 days until the acquisition is closed or the debt is repaid with bonds.  Interest rates would have been capped at 7.5 percent on the secured bridge loan and 9.75 percent on the 10-year unsecured loan.

Takeaway:  Junk yields have been rising. Higher interest expense for SGMS coming.

 

GTECH – will provide the Washington Lottery with a central system based on its Enterprise Series platform, 3,800 Altura® GT1200 lottery terminals, Gemini® Touch self-service machines, in-store multimedia technology and support services.  GTK expects to receive $150 million in revenue during the 10-year contract.

Takeaway:  solid system sale

 

TRUMP – (northjersey.com) is asking a bankruptcy court in Delaware for permission to sell the last 353 of its slots to Patriot Gaming & Electronics, a New Jersey firm that sells new and used slot machines and parts.  The machines would be sold for just under $150,000.

 

MAR – Construction of Lapita Hotel started in February 2014, with the opening scheduled for 2016.  The 503-key Lapita Hotel will form part of the Autograph Collection, an exclusive ensemble of independent luxury hotels, within the Marriott International brand portfolio

Takeaway: Marriott building its luxury presence in Dubai

 

MSC (ANSA) Judicial authorities on Monday seized assets worth 33 million euros from MSC Cruises CEO Pierfrancesco Vago and from Francesco Zuccarino, the president of the board of directors of the cruise company.  Vago is suspected of failure to declare earnings, while Zuccarino is suspected dishonest earnings declarations, the sources said.

Takeaway: Troubling development for MSC

 

 

INDUSTRY NEWS

Graftbuster – chief discipline inspector of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Wang Qishan said no inner-Party cliques are allowed, and all members must abide by Party rules.  

Takeaway:  More rules and regulations for Chinese political officials

MACRO

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  We're seeing bottoms up slowing in Europe cruise pricing in our monthly survey. Europe has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely. Following CCL's earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis. 

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.



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