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Invite | Ebola Forecasting & Containment Call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman

Invite | Ebola Forecasting & Containment Call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman - 1

 

Hedgeye will be hosting a specialist call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman on Tuesday, October 28th at 1:00pm EDT to learn more about  the real and perceived risks of the current ebola virus situation.

 

Dr. Shaman will provide his informed perspective to better understand recent developments, including the global response in Africa, the handling of confirmed cases in the U.S., as well as what we should expect in the immediate future.

 

We will discuss Dr. Shaman's research on forecasting and containment of the ongoing ebola outbreak in Africa, the probability of a significant outbreak outside of Africa, and the timeline for bringing the disease under control, which Dr. Shaman estimates will take another 12 to 18 months.   

 

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Date/TIme: Tuesday, October 28th 1:00pm EDT
  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 651216#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

 

ABOUT JEFFREY SHARMAN, PhD

Dr.Shaman is an Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, a junior faculty fellow of the Earth Institute, a faculty fellow of the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, and a member of the Center for Environmental Health in Northern Manhattan. He is also affiliated with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.  Dr.Shaman received a BA in biology from the University of Pennsylvania,and an MA,M.Ph.and PhD in climate science from Columbia University.  He was a NOAA post-­-doctoral fellow in climate and global change at Harvard University.

 

His research interests include: infectious disease, vector and pathogen ecology, health in the indoor and built environment,large-­-scale climate dynamics,the hydrologic cycle, and climate and disease forecast. Much of his present research focuses on developing model-­-inference systems for the forecast of infectious diseases, including influenza, West Nile virus and Ebola. 

 


Invite | Ebola Forecasting & Containment Call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman

Invite | Ebola Forecasting & Containment Call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman - 1

 

Hedgeye will be hosting a specialist call with Dr. Jeffrey Shaman on Tuesday, October 28th at 1:00pm EDT to learn more about  the real and perceived risks of the current ebola virus situation.

 

Dr. Shaman will provide his informed perspective to better understand recent developments, including the global response in Africa, the handling of confirmed cases in the U.S., as well as what we should expect in the immediate future.

 

We will discuss Dr. Shaman's research on forecasting and containment of the ongoing ebola outbreak in Africa, the probability of a significant outbreak outside of Africa, and the timeline for bringing the disease under control, which Dr. Shaman estimates will take another 12 to 18 months.   

 

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Date/TIme: Tuesday, October 28th 1:00pm EDT
  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 651216#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

 

ABOUT JEFFREY SHARMAN, PhD

Dr.Shaman is an Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, a junior faculty fellow of the Earth Institute, a faculty fellow of the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, and a member of the Center for Environmental Health in Northern Manhattan. He is also affiliated with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.  Dr.Shaman received a BA in biology from the University of Pennsylvania,and an MA,M.Ph.and PhD in climate science from Columbia University.  He was a NOAA post-­-doctoral fellow in climate and global change at Harvard University.

 

His research interests include: infectious disease, vector and pathogen ecology, health in the indoor and built environment,large-­-scale climate dynamics,the hydrologic cycle, and climate and disease forecast. Much of his present research focuses on developing model-­-inference systems for the forecast of infectious diseases, including influenza, West Nile virus and Ebola. 


**NEW Materials Link: YELP Flash Call

 

Participant Dialing Instructions

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 349752#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

**NEW Materials Link: YELP Flash Call - HE IM YELP death

 

Hedgeye's Internet & Media Team, led by Sector Head Hesham Shaaban, will be hosting an update call to their SHORT Yelp (YELP) Best Idea.  YELP's business model is broken; we're already seeing signs of deterioration, which will only get worse in 2015.

    

Join us as we update our bearish thesis and why we see an additional 30%+ downside from here today Friday, October 24th at 1:00pm EDT.

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE  

  • Extreme Attrition Rate: It will only get worse from here
  • Insufficient TAM: YP.com is not the low-hanging fruit, it's a pipe dream
  • 2015 Will Be Much Worse: Consensus estimates are unattainable

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EVENT: YELP Flash Call at 1pm EDT

Takeaway: Dial-in Info below

EVENT: YELP Flash Call at 1pm EDT - HE IM YELP death

Hedgeye's Internet & Media Team, led by Sector Head Hesham Shaaban, will be hosting an update call to their SHORT Yelp (YELP) Best Idea.  YELP's business model is broken; we're already seeing signs of deterioration, which will only get worse in 2015.

    

Join us as we update our bearish thesis and why we see an additional 30%+ downside from here today Friday, October 24th at 1:00pm EDT.

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE  

  • Extreme Attrition Rate: It will only get worse from here
  • Insufficient TAM: YP.com is not the low-hanging fruit, it's a pipe dream
  • 2015 Will Be Much Worse: Consensus estimates are unattainable

 

Participant Dialing Instructions

Toll Free Number:

Direct Dial Number:

Conference Code: 349752#

Materials: CLICK HERE


Target: Temporary "Free Shipping" is a Very Bad Precedent For All

Takeaway: Don’t let this ‘free shipping’ promo sneak under the radar. It ushers Retail to a place where few can be profitable. TGT is not one of them.

This note was originally published October 23, 2014 at 07:18 in Retail

Conclusion: Target offering free shipping over the holidays accelerates a trend that we think will play out over two years -- which is that almost all retailers offer free shipping and free returns. Only those with the highest basket size (Nordstrom) can win at this game. Other retailers are likely to follow TGT over the near term. The math does not look good.

 

 

DETAILS

Every year there seems to be a new strategy the retailers embrace to gain share of wallet as the Holiday's approach.  With many stores now open all day on Thanksgiving and staying open 24/7 in the final stretch in December, there's not much more (aside from price) that the retailers can do to get more people to shop at the stores. But Target has an interesting, albeit costly, idea.

 

TGT is offering free shipping on all items in the store for online customers beginning yesterday, and lasting through Dec 20th. This is a huge event for retail -- at least how we see it.  And it does not result in profitability going up, unfortunately.

 

Common perception is that e-commerce margins are higher than brick & mortar. That might be true for content owners like Ralph Lauren, Nike and UnderArmour -- who can side step a wholesaler and capture 100% of the margin. But for retailers like Target, Macy's, Kohl's and JC Penney, e-commerce is not margin accretive.

 

Take KSS, for example. It's e-commerce gross margins are about 25% -- 1,200 basis points below the company average. The big culprit is the triangulation of lower-value (commodity) product, low basket size, and fixed shipping costs.

 

In the example below, you can see that a company like Nordstrom, which is the only retailer that offers free shipping and free returns, has a big enough basket size due to very defendable brands and price/points such that it can still print a superior e-commerce gross margin. Other retailers -- even Macy's, which is known for being a trailblazer in e-commerce (we don't particularly agree) has an extremely high threshold for free shipping ($99), and still does not have a superior e-commerce margin.

Target: Temporary "Free Shipping" is a Very Bad Precedent For All  - TGT 10 23 chart1

 

 

Our concern about this move by TGT is that it currently has a $50 'free shipping' threshold. Over the next two months, if you want to buy a package of q-tips for $3.89, or a package of pacifiers for $5.89, you get them delivered for free.   Unfortunately, the shipping cost on those items is about double the gross profit that Target would otherwise record.

Target: Temporary "Free Shipping" is a Very Bad Precedent For All  - TGT 10 23 chart2

 

 

Another angle on shipping costs is that a by-product of a 'free shipping' threshold is that it causes many consumers with a low basket size to come in to the store to pick up the product to avoid a $5-$10 shipping charge. According to Target, 14% of its digital sales are picked up in stores, and then about 20% of those customers buy additional items. What happens now that shipping is free?

 

We're not as concerned about this event as a negative for Target, but we are definitely concerned that (almost) all retailers are gravitating to a very unprofitable place -- that's free shipping and free returns. Free shipping is kind of like a dividend -- once you give it, you really can't take it away without severe repercussions.

Target: Temporary "Free Shipping" is a Very Bad Precedent For All  - TGT 10 23 chart3


LEISURE LETTER (10/24/2014)

Tickers: WYNN, HLT, PEB, CCL

EVENTS

  • Oct 24:
    • WYN Q3 earnings 8:30 am "wyndham"
    • PEB Q3 earnings 9 am
    • CHH Q3 earnings 10 am , code 86921299
  • Oct 28:
    • GLPI Q3 earnings 10 am
    • HOT Q3 earnings 11:30 am , code "10325720"
    • WYNN Q3 earnings 4:30 pm
    • MAR Q3 earnings 5 pm , ID "59390131"
  • Oct 29: H Q3 earnings 11:30 am code "95150754"
  • Oct 30:
    • HST Q3 earnings 10 am
    • MGM Q3 earnings 11 am , pw "6307991"
    • BYD Q3 earnings 5 pm , pw "8021592"

COMPANY NEWS

 

WYNN (LVRJ) is redesigning its proposed $1.6 billion resort casino in Everett and has scheduled a public meeting to discuss its cleanup plan for the heavily polluted former chemical plant site. The Las Vegas gambling giant said the environmental cleanup meeting will take place Tuesday at Tufts University in Medford. The updates were part of Wynn’s first status report to state regulators since besting Mohegan Sun for the lucrative Boston-area casino license last month.

Takeaway: Moving forward in the process, but awaiting the results of the referendum.

 

HLT – Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts announced the launch a global gastronomy-focused program in partnership with the James Beard Foundation (JBF).  The JBF chefs will visit their selected property for one week, spending time with the Waldorf Astoria master chef inside and outside the kitchen. At the end of the week, each chef pairing will have devised a unique recipe. The winning Taste will be included on the menus of Waldorf Astoria's 28 hotels and resorts worldwide.

Takeaway: Hilton attempting to improve the quality of food and guest experience while creating a buzz.

 

PEB – announced very strong Q3 results with same-property RevPAR was 11.4%, well above the high end of guidance +7 to +8% with ADR up 8.5% while occupancy increased 2.6%.  Comparable hotel margins rose 350 bps versus guidance of +175 to +225 bps. New full year RevPAR guidance is now 8.25% to 8.75%, up from 7.25% to 8.0%. 

Takeaway: Another strong Q3 beat for the lodging REIT group as well as results that out performed Smith Travel Research RevPAR. The strong results bode well for Lodging REIT HST as well as BEE and SHO.

 

CCL(Cruise Critic) Princess Cruises canceled calls to West Africa due to the Ebola epidemic. The line has cancelled port calls in Cotonou, Benin; Lome, Togo; Tema, Ghana; and Dakar, Senegal on Ocean Princess' 30-day West Africa Adventure cruise departing May 5, 2015 from Cape Town to Dover. The ship will instead call at Luanda, Angola; Madeira (Funchal), Portugal; Malaga (for Grenada), Spain; and Lisbon, Portugal.

 

Princess Cruises also axed two Ukraine ports of call from 12 Mediterranean cruises. Scheduled port calls to Yalta and Odessa on a Mediterranean cruise scheduled for August were canceled and replaced with calls to Khios, Greece, and Constanta, Romania. Since March, seven other cruise lines -- including Azamara Club Cruises, Oceania, Regent Seven Seas, Siloversea and Windstar -- have cancelled Ukraine port stops. 

Takeaway:  More itinerary reconfigurations given Ukraine unrest and Ebola risk

INDUSTRY NEWS

Macau Smoking Ban Enforcement(GGR Asia) The Macau Gaming Enterprises Staff Association, affiliated with the influential Macau Federation of Trade Unions, has asked the government to have full-time inspectors inside casinos to enforce the full smoking ban on mass floors that was introduced on October 6. Local media this week quoted Leong Sun Iok, deputy director of the association, claiming that some gamblers ignore the no smoking signs and verbal warnings from casino staff if government inspectors are not present.

Takeaway: We've heard of punters ignoring the smoking ban and openly smoking in corridors, restrooms as well as stairwells.

 

Macau GGR Recovery (Macau Daily Times) Francis Tam forecast the city’s drop in casino revenue will worsen this month and a recovery will come in the second half of next year. A new bridge connecting Macau, Zhuhai and Hong Kong, coupled with the new casinos opening next year, will increase the city’s capacity to handle tourists, the official was also cited as saying.

Takeaway: Not exactly stepping out on a limb with that prediction.

 

Macau Boarder Opening(Macau Business) A mainland official has said he is confident that the border between Hengqin Island and Macau will open around the clock this year. The director-general of the Hengqin Administrative Committee, Niu Jing, said the mainland authorities were busy getting the facilities on their side of the border ready.

Takeaway: Long anticipated and anxiously desired, and while a positive event, the border crossing is not likely to meaningfully impact GGR growth.

 

Chinese Communist Party Central Committee on Graft – Approved by the central authority, the 18th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session on Saturday, October 25th. 

Takeaway: Expect more headlines regarding anti-graft and corruption crackdowns - which in turn are near term headwinds for Macau GGR. 

MACRO

China New Home Prices decreased 1% month-to-month as compared to down 1.2% during August.

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  We're seeing bottoms up slowing in Europe cruise pricing in our monthly survey. Europe has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely. Following CCL's earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis. 

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


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