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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 23, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 118 points or 5.04% downside to 1830 and 1.08% upside to 1948.                                                           

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.86 from 1.86
  • VIX closed at 17.87 1 day percent change of 11.13%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Natl Activity, Sept., est. 0.15 (pr -0.21)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. 18, est. 281k (pr 264k)
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Aug., est. 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Mfg PMI, Oct. prelim., est. 57 (prior 57.5)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct. 19 (prior 36.2)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10am: Leading Index, Sept., est. 0.7% (prior 0.2%)
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity, Oct., est. 6 (prior 6)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans to auction 2Y/5Y/7Y notes, 2Y FRN
  • 1pm: U.S. to auction $7b 30Y TIPS in reopening

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out of session
    • FEC filing deadline for congressional, some PACs, candidates for Oct. 1-15
    • 10am: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “Disrupting ISIL’s Money Trail” w/ Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David Cohen
    • 12pm: Conn. Democrats Rep. Joe Courtney, Rep. Rosa DeLauro press conf. at Daniels Energy on CFTC’s ability to rein in energy speculation tied to consumer price fluctuations
    • 1:30pm: Secretary of State John Kerry, Defense Sec. Chuck Hagel co-host Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, Minister of National Defense Han Min-Koo
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: ‘Coin Toss’ Whether Sen. Control Set Nov.4

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Euro-Area Manufacturing Unexpectedly Revived in October
  • Goldman, Citigroup Said Wary of Ergen as He Mulls T-Mobile Bid
  • Ocwen Backdating Probe Draws Attention of Attorneys General
  • Alibaba’s Ma Said Headed to Hollywood in Push for Content
  • Honda Air-Bag Deaths Draw Congress Scrutiny as Recalls Widen
  • Gundlach With Pimco See Dollar Extending Best Rally Since 2008
  • Twitter’s New Developer Tools Put Company Deeper Into China
  • Tesla to Start Selling Cars Through Australian Outlets: AFR
  • AT&T Cuts 2014 Forecast, Misses Estimates Amid Price Battles
  • Parliament Attack Drags Canada Into Terror Era as Nation Reels
  • Auto Lending Puts Canada’s Banks at Risk in Slump, Moody’s Says
  • China Factory Gauge Rises as Workers Weather Slowdown
  • Publicis’s Levy Pledges Turnaround After Cutting Sales Forecast
  • Unilever 3Q Underlying Sales Growth Misses Estimates
  • Credit Suisse Profit More Than Doubles as Trading Improves

AM EARNS:

    • 3M Co (MMM) 7:30am, $1.96 - Preview
    • Airgas (ARG) 7:30am, $1.30
    • Alaska Air (ALK) 6:01am, $1.42
    • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) 6:30am, $1.16 - Preview
    • AllianceBernstein  (AB) 7:15am, $0.44
    • American Electric Power (AEP) 6:57am, $1.01
    • Avnet (AVT) 8am, $0.97
    • BankUnited (BKU) 7:30am, $0.45
    • Bemis (BMS) 7am, $0.67
    • Brunswick (BC) 7:36am, $0.58
    • Cameron Intl (CAM) 7:30am, $1.09
    • Caterpillar (CAT) 7:30am, $1.34 - Preview
    • Celgene (CELG) 7:33am, $0.95 - Preview
    • Cenovus Energy (CN) 6am, $0.42 - Preview
    • CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30am, $0.39
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 7:30am, $0.88
    • Colfax (CFX) 6am, $0.61
    • Comcast (CMCSA) 7am, $0.71 - Preview
    • Corus Entertainment (CJR/B CN) 7am, C$0.42
    • Dana Holding (DAN) 7am, $0.51
    • Diamond Offshore (DO) 6am, $0.79 - Preview
    • Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) 8am, $0.88
    • Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) 6am, $0.47
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) 6:30am, $0.67 - Preview
    • EQT (EQT) 7am, $0.50
    • General Motors (GM) 7:30am, $0.95 - Preview
    • Hercules Offshore (HERO) 7am, ($0.06)
    • Husky Energy (HSE CN) 7am, C$0.58 - Preview
    • Janus Capital (JNS) 7am, $0.22
    • Jarden (JAH) 7:05am, $1.16
    • JetBlue Airways (JBLU) 7:30am, $0.26
    • KKR & Co (KKR) 8am, $0.45
    • Lazard (LAZ) 7am, $0.65
    • Lorillard (LO) 7am, $0.89 - Preview
    • Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) 7:30am, $0.90
    • Nielsen (NLSN) 7am, $0.65
    • Nucor (NUE) 9am, $0.75 - Preview
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 7am, $1.59
    • Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) 6am, $0.47
    • Potash of Saskatchewan (POT CN) 6am, $0.42 - Preview
    • PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30am, $0.36 - Preview
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 7am, $1.08
    • Raytheon (RTN) 7am, $1.60
    • Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 8:50am, $1.35
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 6:57am, C$0.88 - Preview
    • Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) 8:36am, $2.19
    • Shaw Communications (SJR/B CN) 8am, C$0.37
    • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8am, $1.06
    • Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) 6am, $0.48
    • Sonus Networks (SONS) 7:01am, $0.01
    • Southwest Airlines (LUV) 8:30am, $0.53 - Preview
    • TRowe Price (TROW) 7:30am, $1.15
    • Under Armour (UA) 7am, $0.40 - Preview
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $1.51 -Preview
    • United Continental (UAL) 7:30am, $2.70
    • USG (USG) 8:30am, $0.46
    • Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) 7am, $1.30

PM EARNS:

    • Align Technology (ALGN) 4:01pm, $0.43
    • Altera (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.37
    • Amazon.com (AMZN) 4:05pm, ($0.75) - Preview
    • BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) 4:01pm, ($0.24)
    • Cerner (CERN) 4:01pm, $0.42 - Preview
    • Chicago Bridge (CBI) 4:05pm, $1.39
    • Chubb (CB) 4:01pm, $1.95
    • Compuware (CPWR) 4:10pm, $0.07
    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 4:05pm, $1.03 - Preview
    • DeVry Education (DV) 4:05pm, $0.29
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4:01pm, $0.72
    • Federated Investors (FII) 4:01pm, $0.35
    • Flowserve (FLS) 4:08pm, $0.99
    • Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) 4:05pm, $0.42
    • Greenhill (GHL) 4:01pm, $0.60
    • Hancock Holding (HBHC) 5pm, $0.58
    • Informatica (INFA) 4:05pm, $0.33
    • Ingram Micro (IM) 4:03pm, $0.62
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05pm, $0.36
    • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 4:15pm, $0.46
    • LogMeIn (LOGM) 4:08pm, $0.28
    • Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) 4:01pm, $0.37
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 4:02pm, $0.55
    • Minerals Technologies (MTX) 5:01pm, $1.07
    • NetSuite (N) 4:08pm, $0.04
    • Olin (OLN) 4:30pm, $0.42
    • Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, $0.08
    • Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB) 4:01pm, $0.63
    • PolyOne (POL) 4:05pm, $0.48
    • Principal Financial (PFG) 4pm, $1.06
    • Qlik Technologies (QLIK) 4:05pm, $0.00
    • ResMed (RMD) 4:05pm, $0.58
    • Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05pm, $0.30
    • Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) 5pm, $0.45
    • Southwestern Energy (SWN) 4:10pm, $0.52
    • Spectranetics (SPNC) 4:01pm, $(0.30)
    • Stericycle (SRCL) 4:02pm, $1.06
    • SVB Financial (SIVB) 4:12pm, $1.23
    • Swift Transportation (SWFT) 4:11pm, $0.35
    • Synaptics (SYNA) 4:15pm, $1.20
    • Valmont Industries (VMI) 5:30pm, $2.18
    • VeriSign (VRSN) 4:05pm, $0.69
    • VeriSign (VRSN) 4:05pm, $0.69
    • Washington REIT (WRE) 5:15pm, $0.42
    • WR Berkley (WRB) 4:01pm, $0.91

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Climbs as Chinese Manufacturing Growth Exceeds Estimates
  • Wheat Climbs as Russian Cold Spell Threatens Newly Planted Crops
  • Cocoa Falls After Decline in Asian Grind; Coffee Extends Drop
  • Manhattan’s Mr. Chocolate Proves Cost Not a Problem: Commodities
  • Gold Falls for Second Day on Economic Growth, ETP Demand Drops
  • Rio Extends CEO Tenure as Miner Builds Defenses Against Glencore
  • African Barrick Sees Potential for Big Gold Deal in 2015
  • Cocoa Processing Drops 5.9% in Asia as Higher Prices Curb Demand
  • Potash Corp. Earnings Disappoint as Nutrient Prices Decline
  • Nestle Says Ebola Outbreak Spurs Faster Africa Cocoa Shipments
  • Soybeans Extend Gains in Chicago, Erasing Earlier Decline
  • Rebar Falls to 2-Week Low as Demand Seen Weak in Rest of 2014
  • Asia’s 3Q Cocoa Grindings Drop 5.9% to 151,643 Tons
  • Libya OPEC Governor Calls for Crude Output Cut Amid Bear Market

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team