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Commodities: Weekly Quant

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart1 deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart2 deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart3 USD correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart4 S P correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart5 Volume

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart6 implied vol

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart7 sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart8 1m correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart9 3m correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart10 6m correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart11 1 year correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart12 3 year correls

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

 


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 20th of October through the 24th of October is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - 10.17.14 Week Ahead

 


Real Conversations: Hanke, McCullough Talk Macro, Money Supply and More

 

In this edition of Real Conversations, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has a wide-ranging conversation with Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at  Johns Hopkins University and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

OC: Removing Owens Corning from Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are removing OC from our high-conviction stock idea list.

We will take the hit here in OC.  We have been wrong on the name and don’t want to compound that error by holding it in a volatile market that is inhospitable to underperforming smaller capitalization names.  While our long-term research view on OC remains favorable, we expect 3Q 2014 results to be poor and are not sure if the company will lower 2014 guidance.  In a less volatile market, we would assume that the weak 3Q numbers had already been priced in.  In the current volatile market, that could prove a risky assumption.

 

We are pulling OC right as the company implements price increases in its roofing and insulation businesses.  It will take a couple of quarters for those price increases to be reflected in financial results, however.  As a result, we do not see a rush and expectations for 4Q 2014 are still elevated.

 

We do expect to re-enter OC and this might be viewed as a trading call.  Those who have invested during (or traded in) periods of high volatility may agree that OC will likely have poor top-down risk style factors for such an environment.  We could be wrong in pulling the name, but can also return to OC once the storm has passed – even if the shares are higher. 

 

OC: Removing Owens Corning from Investing Ideas - owens


Video Replay: #Bubbles Or Bottom?

Earlier today the Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, hosted a Flash Call #Bubbles or Bottom? On the call Keith highlighted the best places to "hide out in" in order to weather the market volatility.  

 

We encourage you to check out the Video Replay (click on the image below).

*This video is available for Hedgeye Macro Subscribers only.

 

To access the presentation referenced in this call CLICK HERE.

 

Our industry-leading fundamental macro research and proprietary quantitative risk management systems suggest a heightened probability of a market crash over the intermediate term. When juxtaposed against the consensus narrative of, "where do I buy the dip?", we think this is a call no one can afford to miss.  



Cartoon of the Day: Beware the Bounce

Cartoon of the Day: Beware the Bounce - bounce cartoon 10.17.2014

 

Don’t let today’s bounce in the markets fool you. This won’t end well.

 

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