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Tickers: CZR, GLPI, LVS, MGM, PEB, CCL

EVENTS

  • Oct 23:
    • RCL Q3 earnings 10 am
    • PENN Q3 earnings 10 am
    • LHO Q3 earnings 10 am "LaSalle Hotel Properties"
  • Oct 24: PEB Q3 earnings 9 am

COMPANY NEWS

CZR – Caesars Entertainment Operating Company a subsidiary of Caesars Entertainment received a notice of default from holders purporting to own at least 30% in principal amount of the subsidiaries outstanding second-priority senior secured notes issued under the Indenture, dated December 24, 2008. 

Takeaway: Debt pressures continue to increase.

CZR – Caesars Entertainment Corporation and its subsidiary Caesars Entertainment Operating Company, Inc. announced they executed non-disclosure agreements with certain beneficial holders of debt issued by CEOC, including senior secured term loans, pursuant to the third amended and restated credit agreement, dated as of July 25, 2014, enabling the commencement of formal discussions with the Bank Lenders. On September 12, 2014, Caesars Entertainment and CEOC announced that they executed non-disclosure agreements with certain beneficial holders of CEOC's 11.25% senior secured notes due 2017, 8.5% senior secured notes due 2020 and 9% senior secured notes due 2020.

  

GLPI – Moody's recently downgraded Cannery Casino's outlook from stable to negative and noted declining EBITDA will pressure Cannery's covenant cushion.  More importantly, Moody's noted the decline at Cannery's Meadows Casino has caused its leverage to rise to 8x and interest coverage ratio to fall to 1.2x.

Takeaway: Maybe not such a great acquisition for GLPI and this could be the reason why no has operator surfaced.

LVS – is looking at a site near Taoyuan International Airport in Taiwan. Business leaders in the area are advocating the legalization of a casino there as part of that area’s commercial development.

Takeaway:  Add Taiwan to the list of opportunities for LVS.

MGM & 2282.HK – Pansy Ho speaking at the Global Tourism Economy Forum commented that labor costs and a shortage of construction workers could put back the opening of MGM Cotai, scheduled for 2016.

Takeaway: A delay in the opening looking more like a reality.

PEB – announced that it has successfully amended and restated its senior unsecured revolving credit facility. The amended credit facility has been increased to $600 million and is composed of a $300 million unsecured revolving credit facility, an extension of the Company’s existing $100 million unsecured term loan, and a 180-day option to draw down an additional $200 million in unsecured term loan proceeds. The pricing on the amended credit facility has been significantly reduced, the revolving credit facility now matures in January 2019 with options to extend the maturity date to January 2020, and the term loan now matures in January 2020

Takeaway: Capital markets increasing appetite to lend to the lodging industry.

CCL (cruisebusiness.com) Costa Cruceros announced the cancellation of its four planned departures of Costa Pacifica from Buenos Aires, citing “commercial difficulties” and “economic situation of the region” as the main reasons for this decision. The company also refers to the growing demand in the Mediterranean as a reason for this strategic move. It is cancelling cruises departing from Buenos Aires on February 27 and March 7, 10 and 18, so that the ship may return to Europe earlier than expected.

Takeaway: Managing the deployments for higher profitability and returns.


CCL – Princess is offering a $149 five-night inside-cabin Caribbean sailing over Thanksgiving while a balcony cabin is quoted at $249 for the itinerary aboard the Caribbean Princess departing Ft. Lauderdale to Costa Maya and Cozumel.

Takeaway: Less expensive than a Thanksgiving feast - book now!

RCL (TTG Digital) – Celebrity Cruises 'game-changing' agent incentive  

Celebrity Cruises has launched a new “game-changing” loyalty program starting Nov 1 for the trade, allowing agents to choose their prizes rather than the cruise line. It enables the trade to earn points when they sell cruises, which they can then redeem for luxury gifts such as iPads, or put towards a cruise with Celebrity.

Takeaway: Not really game-changing.

CRUISERS/EBOLA

  • Released new Ebola guidelines for all brands which includes a public health questionnaire that all adults must complete prior to check-in. 
  • Carnival Magic disembarks in Galveston, blood test clears Ebola lab worker
  • Cruise Lines International Association recommends additional 'contact screening,' on top of travel history screening, and denial of boarding for anyone who had physical contact with, or helped care for, a person with Ebola within 21 days before embarking a cruise.

Takeaway: A relief to cruisers that Ebola tests came out negative but we have been hearing cancellations due to the Ebola fear. More Ebola screenings now being taken on the ships.

INDUSTRY NEWS

Japan Gaming Likely Delayed (Reuters) Japan's plan to legalize casino gambling has likely been delayed again, a senior official said on Monday. Parliament was unlikely to have enough time to pass the controversial law during the current session of parliament, the coalition official said. The hurdle is quite high for both lower and upper houses to enact it during the current session which ends on Nov. 30, according to Keiichi Ishii, policy chief of Komeito, the junior partner in Abe's coalition government.

Takeaway:  This is disappointing news. Some sources say Japan is now or never. 

 

Deputy PM Support(Kyodo News) The deputy prime minister of Japan, Taro Aso said he was in favor of allowing casinos to operate in the country with the aim of promoting tourism and boost economic growth.  But Mr Aso also emphasized the importance of developing legislation to prevent the opening of casinos from causing law and order problems and increasing gambling addiction,

 

Delta Bridge Accident – Early Sunday morning, an accident at a construction site for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (Delta Bridge) in Chek Lap Kok, Hong Kong resulted in the death of a worker and four injuries. Local media reported that five workers at a 15-meter high pier were operating a crane machine to lift construction materials, when the pier collapsed and two workers fell to the ground. One of them, a 43-year-old, died after being rushed to hospital. Among the four injured, three of them are still in hospital, with one in critical condition.

Takeaway: We hope this does not lead to a broader investigation and construction delays. However, no private casino companies to blame here.

Ho Tram Strip – The Grand Ho Tram Strip casino resort in Vietnam on Saturday added another major attraction to its roster with the opening of The Bluffs, a new 18-hole golf course designed by Greg Norman.

Takeaway: The programming of Ho Tram continues, but infrastructure improvements to get to Ho Tram are still needed. 

Las Vegas Gran Prix(The Independent) Formula One executive Bernie Ecclestone is in discussions about hosting a grand prix on the streets of Las Vegas, including The Strip.  Mr. Ecclestone indicated the race circuit "would include The Strip for sure". A senior source in the US racing scene added that F1’s track designer Hermann Tilke had visited Las Vegas several times to work on the layout of the course, showing that the project is at an advanced stage. 

Takeaway: We have seen and experienced first hand the energy, excitement and success of the F1 in Singapore and we believe an F1 Grand Prix in Las Vegas would surely bring significant interest from sponsors, fans, as well as media. Would be a good draw to international visitors.

Colorado Ski Season– Ski season is officially starting in Colorado with the opening of Arapahoe Basin. Some skiers were lined up before dawn on Friday to make turns on the single intermediate tail opening at 9 a.m. A-Basin began making snow Oct. 2 and, over the course of several days, created the 18-inch base necessary for opening. The ski area also received about a foot of natural snow in the past several weeks. Vail Resorts says Keystone plans to open on Oct. 31. Breckenridge will follow on Nov. 7, Vail on Nov. 21 and Beaver Creek on Nov. 26.

Takeaway: Let it snow!

MACRO

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  We're seeing bottoms up slowing in Europe cruise pricing in our monthly survey. Europe has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely. Following CCL's F3Q 2014 earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis. 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.