THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 8, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 0.26% downside to 1930 and 1.29% upside to 1960.                                                                 

                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.85 from 1.83
  • VIX closed at 17.2 1 day percent change of 11.25%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct. 3 (prior -0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Fed’s Evans speaks in Plymouth, Wis.
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $21b 10Y notes in reopening
  • 2pm: Fed releases minutes from Sept. 16-17 FOMC meeting

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out of session
    • FCC deadline for replies on CMCSA/TWC Deal
    • 10am: Supreme Court to consider arguments on whether workers at Amazon.com warehouses must be paid for time spent in security screenings after they clock out
    • 2:30pm: Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Guangyao Zhu speaks at Peterson Institute talk on China-U.S. economic relations
    • 4:30pm: Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on future of global economy at World Business Forum
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Kansas May Set New Trend; S.D. Crooning

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. Said to Ready Charges Against Banks, Traders in FX Case
  • Symantec Said to Explore Split Into Security, Storage Businesses
  • Valeant Said to Plan Raising Allergan Bid Near December Vote
  • Yum Cuts Profit Forecast as Chinese Food Scare Weighs on Sales
  • Costco Profit Tops Estimates as Same-Store Sales Increase
  • Russia Buys Rubles for a Third Day While Shifting Trading Band
  • Marchionne Says He’s ‘Done’ After 2018 Plan for Fiat Chrysler
  • Kurdish Protests Roil Turkey as Islamic State Attacks Kobani
  • Facebook to Let Advertisers Target Users Based on Locations
  • SolarCity to Finance Rooftop Systems in Shift From Leasing Model
  • Chimerix’s Antiviral Drug Improved Survival in Josh Hardy Study
  • Bard Said to Pay $21 Million in First Big Vaginal-Mesh Accord
  • World Growth Eclipses Dollar as Concern for Lew, Manufacturers
  • 18 Banks Said to Adjust Derivatives Contracts Practices: FT
  • Fed Needs Plan to Sell Mortgage-Backed Assets, Lacker Says: WSJ
  • San Francisco Supervisors Agree to Legalize Airbnb: SFGate

 

AM EARNS:

    • Blackhawk (HAWK) 8:30am, $0.03
    • Jean Coutu (PJC/A CN) 7am, C$0.29
    • Monsanto (MON) 8am, $(0.24) - Preview
    • RPM Intl (RPM) 7:30am, $0.78

 

PM EARNS:

    • Alcoa (AA) 4:03pm, $0.22 - Preview

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • London Metal Exchange Wins Appeal Over Rusal Warehouse Ruling
  • Brent Drops to 27-Month Low on IMF Growth Cut; WTI Declines
  • Gold Climbs on Demand From China After Holiday; Platinum Rallies
  • Corn Retreats in Chicago as U.S. Harvest Seen Exceeding Forecast
  • Narrow Price Gap Opens Door for African Oil Exports to U.S. East
  • Arabica Coffee Slides in New York on Speculation of Brazil Rain
  • China Steel Demand May Slow as Economy Becomes More Sustainable
  • OIL DAYBOOK: EIA Crude Build Fcast; OPEC Basket Drops Below $90
  • Northeast U.S. Homes to Pay Higher Prices for Less Gas in Winter
  • Commodity ETP Outflows Totaled $1.8 Billion in Sept: Blackrock
  • Gold With Iron Ore Seen Least Preferred Metals by Morgan Stanley
  • OPEC Crude Below $90 Won’t Spur Immediate Output Cut: Julian Lee
  • Nickel to Aluminum Decline on Demand Concern as IMF Cuts Outlook
  • Indonesia Seen Losing $20B Mining Investment on Political Risk
  • Rusal Says Will Seek to Appeal U.K. Court Ruling on LME Today

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more