It looks like average daily table revenues (ADTR) fell 30% YoY in the first days of October and not the 40% as some initial reports indicated. Either way, ADTR of only HK$1.17 billion vs. HK$1.68 billion for the first 6 days of October 2013 was disappointing. The 2nd half of this October will be quite volatile as there were placeholder weeks in October 2013. We are estimating full month October GGR to fall 15-20% YoY.
High rollers continue to be relatively sparse during Golden Week, affecting VIP volumes. It doesn't help that hold was below average as well; Grand Lisboa saw negative hold for a few days and WYNN/GALAXY/Four Seasons also had bad luck during Golden Week.
Some smoking tidbits we're hearing:
SCL had designated the Four Seasons Plaza entire casino Premium mass but because no smoking parlors are set up, the place is entirely non-smoking. Construction of yet to be approved smoking parlors may disrupt the small casino floor.
COD smoking rooms operational but not officially approved by Health Bureau
In terms of market share, we think low hold may have played a small role – Wynn Macau held poorly – but volumes were the main culprit overall. Wynn Macau also held low in Golden Week 2013.