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Draghi Drugs and the S&P 500

Client Talking Points

DRAGHI

ECB President Mario Draghi, poor guy is “frustrated” now that neither the economic data (SEP Services PMIs slowing in Europe) nor the equity markets are cooperating with his “communication tools” – this may very well be how this epic central planning experiment ends – when people realize that 0 + moarrr 0 doesn’t = something greater than 0.

EUROPE

Germany’s stock market is closed today but got slammed -2% on the Draghi Drugs being impotent – inclusive of this morning’s no-volume bounce, now we have all of the major European Equity Indices (EuroStoxx600, DAX, FTSE, CAC, MIB Index) signaling bearish TREND @Hedgeye w/ #EuropeSlowing.

S&P 500

Maybe bad news would be good for spooz today, who knows – but what was intermediate-term TREND support of 1963 SPX is now resistance and there is no support to the 1910-1915 range if the market decides that bad is bad; employment reports are lagging indicators anyway.

Asset Allocation

CASH 60% US EQUITIES 2%
INTL EQUITIES 8% COMMODITIES 4%
FIXED INCOME 24% INTL CURRENCIES 2%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
EDV

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). Now that we have our first set of late-cycle economic indicators slowing in rate of change terms (ADP numbers and the NFP number), it's time to really think through the upcoming moves of this bond market. We are doubling down on our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

Fixed income continues to be our favorite asset class, so it should come as no surprise to see us rotate into the Shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) on the long side. In conjunction with our #Q3Slowing macro theme, we think the slope of domestic economic growth is poised to roll over here in the third quarter. In the context of what may be flat-to-decelerating reported inflation, we think the performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities may actually be set to widen over the next two to three months. This view remains counter to consensus expectations, which is additive to our already-high conviction level in this position.  Fade consensus on bonds – especially as growth slows. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove.

RH

Restoration Hardware remains our Retail Team’s highest-conviction long idea. We think that most parts of the thesis are at least acknowledged by the market (category growth, real estate expansion), but people are absolutely missing how all the pieces are coming together to drive such outsized earnings growth over an extremely long duration. The punchline of our real estate analysis is that a) RH stores could get far bigger than even the RH bulls seem to think, b) Aside from reconfiguring 66 existing markets, there’s another 19 markets we identified where the spending rate on home furnishings by people making over $100k in income suggests that RH should expand to these markets with Design Galleries, and c) the availability and economics on large properties for all these markets are far better than people think. The consensus is looking for long-term earnings growth of 28% -- we’re looking for 45%.  

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

TREASURIES: 10yr 2.44% = down 9bps on the wk, -59bps for the YTD - crusher yr to be long the Long Bond $TLT

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Continuous effort -- not strength or intelligence -- is the key to unlocking our potential.

-Liane Cardes

STAT OF THE DAY

The UK Services PMI slows to 58.7 in SEP vs 60.5 in AUG and France's Services PMI slows to 48.4 SEP vs 49.4 AUG.


CHART OF THE DAY: Need. Moarr. Drugs. $DXY

CHART OF THE DAY: Need. Moarr. Drugs. $DXY - Chart of the Day

 

Mario Draghi’s Drugs proved to be impotent in yesterday’s real-time market voting session. Germany’s DAX closed down -2% on the day. That puts every major European Equity market index in bearish TREND signal mode @Hedgeye.


Moving Onward

“I move onward, the only direction – can’t be scared to fail in search of perfection.”

-Jay-Z

 

If that isn’t a great thought for someone running their own business, fund, or money, I don’t know what is. You are going to make mistakes out there. The way to win in business, over time, is to not let your big mistakes ride. Moving on matters.

 

I’ve been writing a lot more about demographics and generations  this year. And I think I’m onto something #behavioral with that. Many of the problems you see in the political economy today are being perpetuated by the policies of one generation (Baby Boomers) trying to maintain its indebtedness to another (GI generation). If we don’t learn from these mistakes, we’ll fail.

 

Shawn Carter (Jay-Z) isn’t a boomer. He’s a 44 year old GenX guy who built himself up from nothing and absolutely crushed it. That’s why another successful GenX guy, Ben Horowitz, cites Jay-Z in The Hard Thing About Hard Things (pg 39). That’s how a lot of guys my age think. For the first 15-25 years of our adult lives, we’ve seen a lot of mainstream thinking fail.

 

Moving Onward - j1

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Thinking from another generation’s perspective is not easy. That’s why I read so many #history books. It helps me at least try to walk in other people’s shoes, and learn from their collective experience.

 

Writing about markets and economies is relatively easy when I compare it to my day job (running a company). That’s where I have to constantly remind myself to not react emotionally to other people’s perspectives. Empathizing with them matters.

 

Looking at the world through such different prisms helped me separate facts from perception… I learned to look at alternative narratives and explanations coming from radically different perspectives to inform my outlook.” –Ben Horowitz

 

Hopefully our Q4 Macro Themes call yesterday helped inform your outlook too.

 

Since we’d been working on the content side of the slide deck for the last few weeks (which is really just a cumulative update on what we’ve been writing about every day), the investor feedback to yesterday’s call is what mattered most to me.

 

The most contested points of the presentation were:

 

  1. US Dollar – if the Dollar is strong and commodities are deflating, why not buy consumer stocks?
  2. #Quad4 - how can you say the setup is like Q3 of 2008? that was a once in a lifetime event.
  3. #Bubbles – a series of questions that basically implied it’s different this time.

 

(We will have video of the Q&A portion of the call available later today.)

 

My answers graze the surface on what I am thinking right here and now. Obviously with time and price, my answers should and will change. But, in summary, the main takeaways are as follows:

 

  1. Dollar Up, Rates Down = #Quad4, and that’s deflationary for both Energy (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks
  2. #Quad4 happens. In rate of change terms, that is. Because it’s 1 of 4 places you eventually traverse during a cycle.
  3. And on #Bubbles, I don’t think it’s different this time.

 

In other news, Yodlee (a financial apps company) is going to raise $75M in an IPO today. Love #apps. But seriously.

 

Back to the real world, both the market reaction and economic news has apparently “frustrated” another one of these un-elected men (Draghi) that God put on earth to centrally plan the business cycle.

 

Put another way, Mario Draghi’s Drugs proved to be impotent in yesterday’s real-time market voting session. Germany’s DAX closed down -2% on the day. That puts every major European Equity market index in bearish TREND signal mode @Hedgeye.

 

Not surprisingly, our #EuropeSlowing Theme was not contested. That’s the thing about markets. Sometimes they move downward, fast. And when they do, the search for research perfection in explaining the alternative narrative gets a lot easier.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now (my Top 12 daily risk range callouts (with intermediate-term TREND overlay) are in my Daily Trading Range product – just math – ask to trial it):

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.39-2.51%

SPX 1

RUT 1081-1134

France (CAC) 4

USD 84.47-86.39

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Moving Onward - Chart of the Day


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Scottish Independence Squashed

This note was originally published at 8am on September 19, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Every human has four endowments - self awareness, conscience, independent will, and creative imagination. These give us the ultimate human freedom... The power to choose, to respond, to change.”

-Stephen Covey

 

As of early this morning the vote is in:  the Scots squashed independence and with it the 307 year old union with England remains intact… at least for now.  The vote was 55% NO to 45% YES.

 

And did Pound Sterling ever bounce on the outcome, rising as high as $1.65, and currently is settling in at $1.64!   We were positioned long the GBP/USD (via the etf FXB) ahead of the event (we added it on 9/8 to our Real-Time Alerts) with a succinct thesis:

 

A NO vote leads to a relief rally (see the chart below) and a YES vote leads currency traders to assess the United Kingdom’s fiscal health without Scotland as much improved, which leads to a long term tail wind for the Pound.

 

 In effect, a win-win situation. And we didn’t even have to use our crystal ball!

 

Scottish Independence Squashed - hed

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

In some sense the Scottish independence vote felt like another Greece moment during the thralls of the Eurozone crisis. There were many ways to interpret what was the “best” outcome.: Greece in or out of the union?   And what prevailed was politicians fear mongering on the consequences of a breakup and impressing how the whole is stronger than the sum of its parts – and so Eurocrats quelled the Greek urge for self-determination outside of the Eurozone.

 

It appears that in Scotland, like Greece, the more rational perception of economic wellbeing (along with the fear of myriad uncertainties associated with independence) won over the emotion of nationalism.

 

But is economic wellbeing in Scotland, like Europe, a myth?

 

Our macro team has been making a call for growth slowing in Europe these last months (we’ve recommended shorting Eurozone equities (EZU), France (EWQ), and the EUR/USD (FXE) throughout the quarter), as Eurozone GDP rolled over in Q2 and everything from confidence figures to industrial production and retail sales fell across most European countries over the last 3-6 months.

 

In recent weeks, and in classic lagging fashion, we’ve seen confirmation of this descent in the form of numerous European central banks, countries, and economic organizations revising down their economic expectations for the year:

  • The ECB revised down its 2014 Eurozone GDP projections to 0.9% vs 1.0% in June
  • The Swiss National Bank cut its 2014 GDP projection to 1.5% vs 2% previously forecast
  • Italy’s 2014 GDP projection was cut to 0.4% by the OECD vs the government forecast of 0.8%
  • France’s Finance Minister cut 2014 GDP projection to  0.4% vs 1.7% initially forecast
  • Sweden’s Riksbank cut 2014 GDP projection to 1.7% vs 2.2% forecast in July

Additionally, when we evaluate “health” at the country level based on unemployment rates, it appears that the crisis in Europe has hardly passed. The Eurozone unemployment rate is elevated at a sticky 11.5%, almost double the U.S. at 6.1%. Moreover, when you look at unemployment for people under the age of 25 the numbers are staggering:

  • Spain 53.8%
  • Greece 51.5%
  • Italy 42.9%
  • Ireland 25.1%
  • France 22.5%

Now while it’s plenty easy to push back on these figures and say we’ve mostly cherry-picked the weakest countries (well, France is the 2nd largest economy of the Eurozone), or that there’s no merit in the way unemployment rates are calculated (possibly fair, but the European figures here all come from Eurostat), the point we’re making is that there will be generational TAILs from what some have call this “lost” generation of youth that cannot or will not find a job/establish a career and will rely even more heavily on state support throughout their lives.

 

As the ugly equation of declining growth + high unemployment + low and deflating inflation comes home to roost, the ECB’s newest response is to lever up its balance sheet (ECB President Mario Draghi has indicated the willingness to increase it by €1Trillion) and extend QE as the “elixir” to inflect weak and declining fundamentals across the region. 

 

As Keith mentioned in yesterday’s Early Look:

 

“When it comes to central planning limits, there are none (yet). And that’s making your job as a Risk Manager all the more challenging. No matter what you think the Fed, ECB, and BOJ should do, you have to operate within the paradox of what they will do.”

 

Our view on the impact of ECB policy and the direction of Eurozone fundamentals remains decidedly bearish; here’s a look at how we’ve sized up the latest actions since the ECB’s last meeting on Sept 4th:

  • While QE has proven to put a floor in equities in the past, QE is far from the elixir to inflect weak and declining fundamentals across the region.  Witness Japan’s failed efforts with QE!
  • While on the margin Draghi’s credit easing programs should help to encourage lending and therefore growth to the real economy, the failure of past LTROs to improve lending conditions are fresh in memory. This time the TLTROs may in fact not be different. Interestingly, the first TLTRO tranche yesterday saw take-up by the banks of only €82.6B, well below consensus estimates of €150B
  • We reiterate that inflation (via currency debasement) is not growth, even if Draghi showers us with QE
  • From here our proprietary GIP model (growth, inflation and policy) for assessing economies suggests the Eurozone economy will land in the ugly quads #3 and #4 in 2H, representing growth slowing as inflation decelerates/accelerates (see the chart of the day below)

 

Don’t forget that a full 45% wanted Scottish independence. Certainly some significant percentage of this group’s thinking also anchored on the hope that a vote for independence would benefit their personal stead. But interestingly it appears that this camp was not favored by a youth presence (today’s vote included age 16 and above). In fact, a poll by TubeMogel ahead of the vote asked 16-18 year olds their preference and 57% selected NO.

 

And this actually makes some sense: the life of this group has been so influenced by the global recession and impacts from the Eurozone crisis on slower growth and joblessness (if not for them directly, then their parents and others around them) that their highest priority for this vote was limiting future economic uncertainty.

 

While Scotland is not Catalonia and France is not Greece, there remain many cracks across Europe, economic and cultural alike. We suspect these cracks are here to stay and that even the mighty Draghi QE wand can’t fix them. 

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.36-2.63%

SPX 1996-2016

FTSE 6759-6885

USD 83.78-84.69

EUR/USD 1.28-1.30

Pound 1.62-1.65

 

Have a great weekend!

 

Matthew Hedrick

Associate

 

Scottish Independence Squashed - d cod


October 3, 2014

October 3, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide2

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide3

 

BEARISH TRENDS

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide4

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide5

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide6

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide7

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide8

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide9

 

October 3, 2014 - Slide10 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 3, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or 0.42% downside to 1938 and 0.86% upside to 1963.                                                               

                                                                

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.90
  • VIX closed at 16.16 1 day percent change of -3.29%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Aug., est. -$40.8b (prior -$40.5b)
  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Sept., est. 215k (pr 142K)
  • Unemployment Rate, Sept., est. 6.1% (prior 6.1%)
  • Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, Sept., est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Services PMI, Sept. final, est. 58.5 (pr 58.5)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Mfg Composite, Sept., est. 58.5 (pr 59.6)

 

GOVERNMENT:

  • Senate, House out of session
  • 9am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds annual Supreme Court Pre-Term briefing focusing on business cases
  • U.S. chief negotiator Dan Mullaney for Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, EU’s chief negotiator Ignacio Garcia Bercero, hold media briefing on 7th round of talks
  • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Alaska’s Fish Debate; Gun Control Ad Wars

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

    • Jobs-Day Guide: U.S. Payrolls, Participation, Wages and Hours
    • JPMorgan Password Said to Lead Hackers to 76m Households
    • Salix Pharmaceuticals, Cosmo Agree to End Merger Agreement
    • Salix Said in Sale Talks With Actavis as Allergan Deal Fades
    • BP Seeks Revised Negligence Judgment or New Trial Over Spill
    • RadioShack Said to Reach Refinancing Deal With Standard General
    • Fed Lawyer Says AIG Got Billions Without 2008 Bailout Paperwork
    • American Cameraman for NBC News Diagnosed With Ebola in Liberia
    • Apple Encryption Will Slow Not Stop Snooping by Cops, Spies
    • Tobacco CEOs Urge FDA to Move More Quickly With E-Cig Standards
    • Disney Extends Iger’s Term, Keeping Staggs-Rasulo Race Alive
    • UBS Drops on Report of Potential $6.2b Fine in France
    • Iliad Said to Prepare Offer for Bigger Stake in T-Mobile
    • U.K. Services Growth Cools in Sign Recovery Is Losing Momentum
    • Eurozone Aug. Retail Sales Up 1.2% M/m; Est. Up 0.1% M/m
    • Hong Kong Protesters Besiege Government Building Before Talks
    • Trump Entertainment Judge Set to Rule on Dropping Union Pension
    • Goldman Losing Faith in $100 Brent While WTI Discount Seen Wider
    • Cameron Says U.K. Won’t Send Combat Troops Back to Afghanistan
    • American Airlines Asks U.S. for Tokyo Flight Slot Held by Delta
    • Takeda Accused of Putting Actos Profit Ahead of Patient Safety
    • Goldman Considering Setting Up New Infrastructure Fund: Reuters
    • Facebook Explores Plan to Connect Users With Ailments: Reuters
    • IMF, G-20, Fed Minutes, BOE, Brazil, Swaps: Wk Ahead Oct. 4-11

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Crude on Brink of Bear Market Amid Swelling Global Supply
  • Gold Drops Close to Erasing This Year’s Gains on Rising Rates
  • Diamond Hunters Giving Up on Gems Too Hard to Find: Commodities
  • Port Hedland Iron Ore Shipments to China Decline From Record
  • Nickel Advances Before U.S. Payroll Data as Copper Also Gains
  • West Texas Intermediate Crude Seen Falling in Analyst Survey
  • Soybean Meal Poised to Rise 11% After Testing ‘Key Support’
  • Palm Rebounds From Biggest Drop Since August on Demand Outlook
  • Ebola Serious Threat to West African Miners, Deutsche Bank Says
  • Zambia Said to Mull Replacing Mine Tax With Higher Royalties
  • Americas Dominate New Copper Supply as Africa, Asia Trail
  • Rail Jams Snarl Canada Grain Sales Even as Crop Shrinks: Freight
  • Orphaned Russian Oil Heads to U.S. West on Asia Overflow: Energy
  • Nickel Leads Metals Higher Before U.S. Payroll Data: LME Preview

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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