THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 1, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 0.78% downside to 1957 and 0.70% upside to 1986.                                               

                                                                                

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.92
  • VIX closed at 16.31 1 day percent change of 2.07%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Sept. 26 (prior -4.1%)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Sept., est. 205k (prior 204k)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Mfg PMI, Sept. final, est. 57.9 (prior 57.9)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Sept., est. 58.5 (prior 59)
  • 10am: Construction Spending m/m, Aug., est. 0.5% (prior 1.8%)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out of session
    • 9:30am-1pm: Energy Sec. Moniz speaks at energy security event
    • Panel afterwards incl. IHS Vice Chair Yergin, White House counselor Podesta
    • 10:30am: Former President Bill Clinton  World Energy Engineering Congress keynote address
    • 2pm: SEC Commissioner Gallagher speaks at mkt structure conf.
    • 2:45pm FINRA CEO Richard Ketchum and SEC head of trading, Steve Luparello, also speak
    • 2:45pm: SEC Chair White speaks at panel at Intl Organization of Securities Commissions meeting in Rio De Janeiro
    • 4pm: Sec. of State Kerry to meet with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi at State Dept
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Latino No-Shows; Senate Control Consensus

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Pershing Square Raises Size of IPO to $2.73b From About $2b
  • Eurozone Sept. Manufacturing PMI 50.3; Est. 50.5
  • First Ebola Case Diagnosed in U.S. Confirmed in Dallas: CDC
  • Japan Stock Orders of $617b Scrapped in Trading Error
  • Bristol-Myers Transfers $1.4b of Pension Risk to Prudential
  • Nomura, Goldman Sachs Among Firms to Lead Japan Post IPO
  • FAA Orders New Pilot Displays for 1,300 Boeing Jets: WSJ
  • Oracle Seeks Partners in China to Expand Cloud Service Business
  • Fannie, Freddie Investors Lose Suits Over Profits Taken by U.S.
  • Wal-Mart Judge Says Retailer Must Face Mexican-Bribe Probe Suit
  • Apple Said to Add Gold Option to IPad in Effort to Boost Sales
  • BNY Mellon to Shutter Its Derivatives Sales, Trading Group
  • U.S. Said to Reach Accord With Brazil Ending Cotton Trade Fight
  • Hong Kong Leader Jeered by Protesters on China National Day
  • President Obama meets with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
  • GM, Chrysler, Ford Sept. Auto sales; SAAR may drop vs Aug.

 

EARNINGS:

    • Acuity Brands (AYI) 8:56am, $1.22

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Corn Extends Drop to Five-Year Low as U.S. Supply Tops Estimates
  • Goldman Sees Corn to Soybeans Extending Losses on U.S. Supplies
  • WTI Crude Rebounds Before U.S. Stockpile Report; Brent Climbs
  • Nickel Declines to Six-Month Low as Stockpiles Expand to Record
  • Arabica Coffee Rises on Outlook for Brazil’s Crop; Cocoa Falls
  • Platinum Drops to 5-Year Low as Palladium Declines on Car Sales
  • Top Cotton Trader Says Prices Need to Fall More to Cut Surpluses
  • U.S. Oil Exports Seen Breaking 1957 Record as Traders Dodge Ban
  • Palm Oil Declines After Posting Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2009
  • Marubeni Offloads $1 Billion Canadian Coal Mine for a Buck
  • Gas Allure in U.K. Power Poised to Extend Into Winter on Outages
  • Worst Seen Over for Global Oil Prices as Saudis Cut Output
  • Shanghai-London Parity Signals Aluminum Rally: Chart of the Day
  • Mideast Turmoil Keeps Gasoline at 45 Cents in Oil States: Energy

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more