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September 29, 2014

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BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 29, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.05% downside to 1962 and 0.56% upside to 1994.                                     

                                                                                          

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.93 from 1.95
  • VIX closed at 14.85 1 day percent change of -5.05%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Aug., est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9am: Fed’s Evans speaks in Chicago
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales m/m, Aug., est. -0.5% (prior 3.3%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Mfg Activity, Sept. est. 10.5 (prior 7.1)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $24b 3M, $24b 6M bills

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out of session
    • President Obama attends DNC event, India’s Prime Minister Modi attends dinner at White House
    • Sen. Ted Cruz addresses National Security Action Summit
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Nunn Calls Perdue Ad ‘Lie’; Cotton Donors

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Yahoo’s Mayer Says Will Review Starboard Letter Carefully
  • Pimco Suffers $10b of Outflows After Gross’s Departure: WSJ
  • Allianz Won’t Sell Pimco After Gross Departure: FT
  • Encana Schedules Conference Call Before U.S. Market Open
  • Stock Exchanges Plan to Meet Deadline for SEC Audit System
  • U.S. Judge Rules U.S. Bank Must Face Some Peregrine Claims
  • DreamWorks Animation Studio Said Weighing Sale to SoftBank
  • Family Dollar: State AGs to Probe Dollar General Share Deals
  • Ex-Apple CEO Sculley Says IPhone Rollout Drama Overstated
  • Russia Oil Chief Says Sanctions No Bar to Work in Arctic
  • Greenberg Team to Grill Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner on AIG
  • Commerzbank Said to Face Probe of Money-Laundering Controls
  • Oracle Cloud Product to Match Amazon.com’s Pricing: Ellison
  • Alibaba Said to Pay Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley Top IPO Fees
  • U.S. Iraq Strikes are ‘Not America Against ISIL’: Obama
  • ‘Equalizer’ Tops Box Office; Washington Shows His Worth

 

EARNINGS:

    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 6:30am, $1.17
    • Cantel Medical (CMN) 8am, $0.27
    • Cintas (CTAS) 4:15pm, $0.75
    • Ferrellgas (FGP) 7am, $(0.28)
    • Synnex (SNX) 4:05pm, $1.48

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Crude Set for Biggest Loss in a Week With Brent Before Data
  • ICE Europe Takes Liffe Commodities Markets After 18 Years
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Cocoa Bets on Ebola Risk: Commodities
  • Nickel Heads for Bear Market on Record Inventories Even With Ban
  • Gold Rises on Demand for Alternative Investment as Stocks Drop
  • LME Introducing One-Off Membership Application Fee as of Jan. 1
  • Iron Ore’s ‘Credible Guy’ Albanese Says Weak Prices Will Endure
  • Singapore Bourse to Start Kilobar Gold Trading to Lure Investors
  • Soybeans Drop to Four-Year Low as China Suspends Import Approval
  • Raw Sugar Rises for Fifth Session Before Expiry; Cocoa Advances
  • ABN Amro Commits to China Commodity Finance Growth Post Qingdao
  • Peanut Butter in Maple-Bacon Sandwiches as Prices Tumble: Retail
  • Rebar in Shanghai Falls to Record Low as Iron Ore Price Plunges
  • LME Raises Average Transaction Fees by 34% to Cover Investment

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


FLASH CALL TODAY 2PM: CRUISE LINES - EUROPEAN RISK

We are hosting a Flash Call at 2PM TODAY as we walk through our thesis on European slowdown risk and how it will impact CCL/RCL.

 

 


THESIS OVERVIEW:

 

  • Hedgeye cruise survey points to weakening European pricing
  • Fragile consumer environment in the Eurozone e.g. Germany, Italy, and France projected by Hedgeye Macro team
  • RCL and CCL share appreciation, overly bullish sentiment, and relatively high valuations suggest reaction to negative European pricing pivot could be sharp

 

CALL DETAILS:


Attendance on this call is limited.  Ping  for more information.


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CCL/RCL – RISK WHERE YOU LEAST EXPECT IT

Takeaway: Cruise pricing survey and Macro suggest European winds shifting against RCL and CCL

Takeaways:

 

  • Hedgeye cruise survey points to weakening European pricing
  • Fragile consumer environment in the Eurozone e.g. Germany, Italy, and France projected by Hedgeye Macro team
  • RCL and CCL share appreciation, overly bullish sentiment, and relatively high valuations suggest reaction to negative European pricing pivot could be sharp

 

Please see our in-depth report HERE.



Commodities: Weekly Quant

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart1 divergences

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart2 deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart3 USD Correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart4 S P correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart5 volume

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 6 implied vol

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart7 sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart8 1 moth correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 9 3 mth correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart10 6mth correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart11 1YR correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart12 3YR correls

 

 

Ben Ryan 

Analyst


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 29th of September through the 3rd of October is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - 09.26.14 Week Ahead

 


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