REVISION - Retail Callouts (9/25): Farah/Burch, RL, KSS, RonJon, AMZN

Takeaway: Farah joins Tory Burch. Genius move as it preps to go public – but what a big black eye to Ralph Lauren – the person and the brand.



Thursday (9/25)

NKE - Earnings Call: 5:00pm


Friday (9/26)

FINL - Earnings Call: 8:30:am




RL - Roger Farah Joins Tory Burch as Co-CEO



"Roger Farah didn’t wait long to make his next move. After stepping down as vice chairman at Ralph Lauren Corp. in May, Farah planned to take the summer off and think about new opportunities in the fall. On Wednesday, he made good on that promise — the second full day of fall."

"Farah, 61, has been named co-chief executive officer of Tory Burch, the privately held sportswear and accessories company, a new post. He was also appointed to the company’s board and took an equity stake in the business. He will report to Tory Burch, who is chairman and co-ceo."


REVISION - Retail Callouts (9/25): Farah/Burch, RL, KSS, RonJon, AMZN - 9 25 chart1 

Image Source: Women's Wear Daily George Chinsee


Takeaway:  This is a major surprise. If you didn't know that Tory Burch planned to go public, well now you know. Putting Roger Farah in the co-CEO role alongside Tory is genius. Tory's brand is clearly at the size where the eccentric/visionary founder can no longer rely on design and merchandising to take the company to the next level. But there is nobody in retail that has a more defined track record in doing this than Roger Farah (even though he was a bust in prior jobs at Foot Locker and Federated). Having Roger on board is easily good for 5-10 multiple points when it goes public. The bankers must be salivating. In fact, the bankers probably made this happen. We'd expect a deal in 12-18 months' time.  This is actually good for the space, we think. Coach is caput. Kors is losing its luster. And despite the fact that Kate's fundamentals are stellar, investors are scrutinizing every little word management utters. Having another public brand in Luxury might actually turn this into a real 'space' again. But one thing that is undeniable is that this is a colossal black eye for Ralph Lauren. Roger earned over $100mm in a decade and a half at Ralph Lauren, and then went 'part time' in November 2013. We never really heard of a 'part time' COO -- and that lasted all of six months until Roger officially retired.  RL's explanation was that 'he wants to spend more time with his family.' Either he's tired of his family...or he saw this opportunity coming down the pike all along. 


Former Apple retail chief Ron Johnson to launch gadget delivery service, report says



"According to a report on Tuesday, former Apple SVP of Retail Ron Johnson is looking to open an on-demand delivery service for electronic devices, a sector currently being explored by the likes of Amazon, Google and others."


Takeaway: The funny thing here is that the reporter is referring to RonJon as the former SVP of Apple Retail. In fairness, it's written from an Apple perspective. But how quickly people forget his wrath of value destruction at JC Penney.


KSS - Kohl's Pulls Men's Parka After Humane Society Probe



"In response to an investigation led by The Humane Society of the United States Kohl's has stopped selling a men's R&O parka with fur trim that was being marketed as faux fur."

"Kohl's said 'No such authorization was given here. Once aware that the product was made with real fur, Kohl's immediately removed the product from our website.'"


Takeaway: Nothing to make a big deal about unless you are a red paint thrower. Just another whoops for the quality control team. This is the 2nd time in 2 years that the company peddled mislabeled fur products on its site. The fine for this type of offense = $16,000, that is if someone wants to go to the trouble of bringing a civil suit to court. All in, this is pretty much a non-event.




HBC - Saks Fifth Avenue Heads Downtown



"Hudson's Bay expects to open a 85,000-square-foot Saks Fifth Avenue store at Brookfield Place in spring 2016 and a 55,000-square-foot Saks Fifth Avenue Off Fifth discount outlet in fall 2017 at One Liberty Plaza."


Caroline Brown Said Headed to Donna Karan



"Sources indicated Wednesday that Caroline Brown’s new job will be as chief executive officer of Donna Karan International, succeeding Mark Weber. WWD reported Wednesday that Brown was stepping down as president at Carolina Herrera at the end of the year to take on a new job, which could not immediately be learned."


AMZN - DHL Beats Amazon, Google to First Planned Drone Delivery



"Deutsche Post AG, Europe’s largest postal service, is about to begin deliveries of medication and other urgent goods to the island of Juist using unmanned helicopters after securing approval from state and federal transport ministries and air traffic control authorities to operate in a restricted flight area. The vehicles, called parcelcopters, will operate from tomorrow, weather permitting, and fly for four to six weeks in the pilot project, the Bonn-based company said yesterday."


HAS, DIS, MAT - Hasbro Swipes Disney’s ‘Frozen,’ Princess Licenses


"In a major coup, the company known for Transformers and G.I. Joe announced yesterday that it secured the doll license starting in 2016 for two juggernauts of the girls toy aisle with Walt Disney Co.’s “Frozen” and Princess brands. Even better for Hasbro is that it’s taking the rights to make Elsa and Cinderella figurines from larger rival, Mattel Inc."


AMZN - Amazon’s Twitter E-Commerce Integration Now Adds To Your Wish List With An #AmazonWishList Tweet



"Amazon expanded its Twitter e-commerce integration today, giving users the ability to add to Amazon wish lists using the hashtag #AmazonWishList in a reply to a tweet."

"In May Amazon launched a variant of this feature that enabled customers to drop items they discovered on Twitter into their shopping carts — using #AmazonCart in replies."

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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