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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 18, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 1.08% downside to 1980 and 0.27% upside to 2007.                                                     

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.03 from 2.05
  • VIX closed at 12.65 1 day percent change of -0.63%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. 13, est. 305k (pr 315k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts m/m, Aug., est. -5.2% (prior 15.7%)
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sept. 14 (prior 36.5)
  • 10am: Philly Fed Business Outlook, Sept., est. 23.0 (pr 28)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 3M/6M bills, 2Y/5Y/7Y notes, 2Y FRN
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 2Q (prior $1.490t)
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 10Y TIPS in reopening
  • 5pm: Fed’s Richard Fisher speaks in Dallas

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House in session
    • Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko meets with Obama, Congress
    • House Speaker John Boehner delivers speech on economy
    • Congress cmtes hold hearings on threat from Islamic State
    • 8am: House Intelligence cmte hearing
    • 11:15am: Defense Sec. Chuck Hagel at House Armed Services Cmte
    • 11:30am: Sec. of State John Kerry House Foreign Affairs
    • 8:15am: FDIC Chairman Gruenberg among speakers at FDIC’s Center for Financial Research/Journal of Fin. Services Research
    • 9am: Institutes of Mfg Innovation briefing w/ Sen. Brown, D-Ohio; Rep. Kennedy, D-Mass.; Rep. Reed, R-N.Y.; Commerce Secretary Pritzker on strategy for dealing with Islamic State
    • 8:30am: Sen. Energy and Natl Resources ranking member Sen. Murkowski, R-Alaska; Sen. Scott, R-S.C. conf. on energy security
    • 8:45am: Fed Chair Yellen prerecorded video: “Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households” at Corp. for Enterprise Development’s 2014 Assets Learning Conf.
    • 10am: FERC holds monthly public meeting
    • 10am: CDC news conf. on 2014-2015 flu outlook w/ Dir. Frieden
    • 11am: House Oversight Cmte hearing on Obamacare
    • 2:15pm: Boehner speech on economy
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Ad Dispute in Ga.; Polls; Cotton’s Thesis

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Scotland decides on U.K. independence; vote too close to call
  • Alibaba IPO expected to price post-mkt; $66-$68/shr range
  • Bayer to float material-science unit, focuses on life sciences
  • Dresser-Rand, Sulzer in talks about potential combination
  • ECB says banks take EU82.6b in targeted long-term loans
  • SNB keeps franc ceiling of 1.20 vs euro, may step up defense
  • Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko meets with Obama, Congress
  • Sony may be cut to below investment grade at S&P
  • China home price drop spreads to more cities as demand weakens
  • Henkel agrees to buy Minnesota-based Bergquist Co.
  • German e-tailer Zalando to raise as much as $815m in Oct. IPO
  • Apple delays HealthKit software after discovering early flaw
  • Costco stores in Canada to stop accepting American Express
  • Amazon unveils new tablet lineup for kids, readers, businesses
  • U.K. retail sales climbs most in 4 months, matches est.

EARNINGS:

    • ConAgra Foods (CAG) 7:30am, $0.35
    • IHS (IHS) 6am, $1.44
    • Oracle (ORCL) 4:01pm, $0.64 - Preview
    • Red Hat (RHT) 4:05pm, $0.38
    • Rite Aid (RAD) 7am, $0.06
    • Tibco Software (TIBX) 4:05pm, $0.18

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • China Opens Gold Market to Foreigners Amid Pricing Ambition
  • Brent Crude Futures Pare Loss with WTI Amid Risks to OPEC Supply
  • Silver ETP Buyers Defy Hedge Fund Exit During Slump: Commodities
  • Rebar in Shanghai Closes Near Record Low as Home Prices Weaken
  • Gold Trades Little Changed After Drop to Eight-Month Low on Fed
  • Billionaire’s Wheat Farmers Unbowed in Russia as Sanctions Bite
  • Wheat Slides With Corn on Outlook for Surging Crop Supplies
  • Cocoa Extends Gains in London to Three-Week High as Sugar Falls
  • Panama Canal Expansion in 2016 May Spur U.S. LNG Exports to Asia
  • Switzerland Imported 126.2 Tons of Gold Last Month: Swiss Data
  • Billionaire Branson’s NGO Sees CO2-Fighting Ports Gain Fivefold
  • Rubber Declines as China Home Prices Raise Demand Concerns
  • Gold Least Tempting Versus Stocks Since Lehman: Chart of the Day
  • OPEC Supply Risks Grow as Biggest Libyan Oilfield Is Halted

 

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CURRENCIES


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GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST

 

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The Hedgeye Macro Team