TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 18, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 1.08% downside to 1980 and 0.27% upside to 2007.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.03 from 2.05
- VIX closed at 12.65 1 day percent change of -0.63%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. 13, est. 305k (pr 315k)
- 8:30am: Housing Starts m/m, Aug., est. -5.2% (prior 15.7%)
- 8:45am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sept. 14 (prior 36.5)
- 10am: Philly Fed Business Outlook, Sept., est. 23.0 (pr 28)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 3M/6M bills, 2Y/5Y/7Y notes, 2Y FRN
- 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 2Q (prior $1.490t)
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 10Y TIPS in reopening
- 5pm: Fed’s Richard Fisher speaks in Dallas
GOVERNMENT:
- Senate, House in session
- Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko meets with Obama, Congress
- House Speaker John Boehner delivers speech on economy
- Congress cmtes hold hearings on threat from Islamic State
- 8am: House Intelligence cmte hearing
- 11:15am: Defense Sec. Chuck Hagel at House Armed Services Cmte
- 11:30am: Sec. of State John Kerry House Foreign Affairs
- 8:15am: FDIC Chairman Gruenberg among speakers at FDIC’s Center for Financial Research/Journal of Fin. Services Research
- 9am: Institutes of Mfg Innovation briefing w/ Sen. Brown, D-Ohio; Rep. Kennedy, D-Mass.; Rep. Reed, R-N.Y.; Commerce Secretary Pritzker on strategy for dealing with Islamic State
- 8:30am: Sen. Energy and Natl Resources ranking member Sen. Murkowski, R-Alaska; Sen. Scott, R-S.C. conf. on energy security
- 8:45am: Fed Chair Yellen prerecorded video: “Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households” at Corp. for Enterprise Development’s 2014 Assets Learning Conf.
- 10am: FERC holds monthly public meeting
- 10am: CDC news conf. on 2014-2015 flu outlook w/ Dir. Frieden
- 11am: House Oversight Cmte hearing on Obamacare
- 2:15pm: Boehner speech on economy
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Ad Dispute in Ga.; Polls; Cotton’s Thesis
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Scotland decides on U.K. independence; vote too close to call
- Alibaba IPO expected to price post-mkt; $66-$68/shr range
- Bayer to float material-science unit, focuses on life sciences
- Dresser-Rand, Sulzer in talks about potential combination
- ECB says banks take EU82.6b in targeted long-term loans
- SNB keeps franc ceiling of 1.20 vs euro, may step up defense
- Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko meets with Obama, Congress
- Sony may be cut to below investment grade at S&P
- China home price drop spreads to more cities as demand weakens
- Henkel agrees to buy Minnesota-based Bergquist Co.
- German e-tailer Zalando to raise as much as $815m in Oct. IPO
- Apple delays HealthKit software after discovering early flaw
- Costco stores in Canada to stop accepting American Express
- Amazon unveils new tablet lineup for kids, readers, businesses
- U.K. retail sales climbs most in 4 months, matches est.
EARNINGS:
- ConAgra Foods (CAG) 7:30am, $0.35
- IHS (IHS) 6am, $1.44
- Oracle (ORCL) 4:01pm, $0.64 - Preview
- Red Hat (RHT) 4:05pm, $0.38
- Rite Aid (RAD) 7am, $0.06
- Tibco Software (TIBX) 4:05pm, $0.18
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- China Opens Gold Market to Foreigners Amid Pricing Ambition
- Brent Crude Futures Pare Loss with WTI Amid Risks to OPEC Supply
- Silver ETP Buyers Defy Hedge Fund Exit During Slump: Commodities
- Rebar in Shanghai Closes Near Record Low as Home Prices Weaken
- Gold Trades Little Changed After Drop to Eight-Month Low on Fed
- Billionaire’s Wheat Farmers Unbowed in Russia as Sanctions Bite
- Wheat Slides With Corn on Outlook for Surging Crop Supplies
- Cocoa Extends Gains in London to Three-Week High as Sugar Falls
- Panama Canal Expansion in 2016 May Spur U.S. LNG Exports to Asia
- Switzerland Imported 126.2 Tons of Gold Last Month: Swiss Data
- Billionaire Branson’s NGO Sees CO2-Fighting Ports Gain Fivefold
- Rubber Declines as China Home Prices Raise Demand Concerns
- Gold Least Tempting Versus Stocks Since Lehman: Chart of the Day
- OPEC Supply Risks Grow as Biggest Libyan Oilfield Is Halted
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
