TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 17, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 1.10% downside to 1977 and 0.40% upside to 2007.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.04 from 2.06
- VIX closed at 12.73 1 day percent change of -9.84%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Sept. 12 (prior -7.2%)
- 8:30am: CPI m/m, Aug., est. 0.0% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: Current Account Bal., 2Q, est. -$113.4b (pr -$111.2b)
- 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Sept., est. 56 (prior 55)
- 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
- 2pm: Fed seen maintaining overnight bank lending rate target between 0% and 0.25%, reducing QE purchases by $10b
- 2:30pm: Fed’s Yellen holds news conference on FOMC
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama in Tampa to attend briefings at Centcom
- 10am: Benghazi Select Cmte hearing
- 10:15am: Senate Finance Cmte hearing on energy tax incentives, revising the U.S. energy tax code
- 10:30am: Senate Judiciary Cmte holds hearing on open Internet, net neutrality debate
- 10:30am: Sen. Armed Services Cmte leaders to hold news briefing to release newly declassified report on yr-long investigation of cyber hacking into computer networks of some defense contractors
- 1pm: Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf talks about role of financial services in economy at National Press Club
- 2pm: CFTC holds meeting to consider rule on margin requirements and final rule on utility special entities
- 2pm: House Oversight panel holds hearing on IRS, missing e-mails
- 2:30pm: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte hears from Sec. of State John Kerry on U.S. strategy to defeat Islamic State
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Fed Decision Day Guide: considerable debate on forward guidance
- China joins ECB in adding stimulus as Fed scales back
- Microsoft’s Nadella raises dividend, changes 2 board members
- Citigroup embraces derivatives risk as deals surge
- Endo offers $2.2b for men’s health drugmaker Auxilium
- Sony widens full-year net loss forecast to 230b yen vs 50b yen
- Credit Suisse loans said to draw regulatory scrutiny: WSJ
- Scots independence campaigns make final appeals ahead of vote
- U.K. “bad bank” said to prefer JPMorgan as bidder: Telegraph
- Barclays hid trader role after questions, Schneiderman says
EARNINGS:
- Clarcor (CLC) 5:08pm, $0.79
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL) 7am, $1.56
- FedEx (FDX) 7:30am, $1.96 - Preview
- General Mills (GIS) 6:55am, $0.69 - Preview
- Herman Miller (MLHR) 4pm, $0.47
- Lennar (LEN) 6am, $0.67 - Preview
- Pier 1 Imports (PIR) Aft-Mkt, $0.13
- United Natural Foods (UNFI) 4:05pm, $0.65
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Iron Ore Seen Stabilizing by Australia as High-Cost Mines Close
- Cattle Viewed as Last Bull After Herds Dwindled: Riskless Return
- Brent Crude Rebounds as Libya’s Sharara Field Shut; WTI Steady
- Copper Trades Near One-Week High as Top User China Adds Stimulus
- France’s Panic Over Wheat Supplies Seen Easing as Harvest Ends
- Record Corn Fills Silos While Eroding Farmer Prices: Commodities
- Gold Is Little Changed Near Eight-Month Low as Fed Ends Meeting
- Rubber Gains for 3rd Day on Bets China Stimulus May Boost Demand
- Nigeria Seeks to Avert Oil Terminal Halt Amid Strike Action
- U.S. LNG No Panacea as Asia and Europe to Boost Imports, BG Says
- NOREXECO Gets License for Forestry to Paper Derivatives Exchange
- Russian Grain Demand Seen by Grain Union Rising on Refugees
- Fracking Study Spurs Call for Rules to Leakproof U.S. Gas Wells
- Steel Rebar in Shanghai Halts Decline as China Boosts Stimulus
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team