TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 4, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or 0.64% downside to 1988 and 0.31% upside to 2007.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.89 from 1.88
- VIX closed at 12.36 1 day percent change of 0.90%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: Bank of England seen maintaining bank rate of 0.5%
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts y/y, Aug. (prior 24.4%)
- 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Sept. (prior 51.5)
- 7:45am: ECB seen maintaining refinancing rate of 0.150%
- 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Aug., est. 220k (prior 218k)
- 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi hold news conference in Frankfurt
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, July, est. -$42.4b (prior -$41.5b)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Aug. 30, est. 300k (prior 298k)
- 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, 2Q final, est. 2.4% (prior 2.5%)
- 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Aug. final, est. 58.5 (pr 58.5)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 31 (prior 37.3)
- 10am: ISM Non-Mfg Composite, Aug., est. 57.7 (prior 58.7)
- 10:30am: EIA Natgas storage change
- 11am: DOE Energy Inventories
- 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 3M/6M bills, 3Y/10Y notes, 30Y bonds
- 12:30pm: Fed’s Mester speaks in Pittsburgh
- 7pm: Fed’s Powell speaks on Libor in New York
- 8:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Dallas
- 9pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Helena, Mont.
GOVERNMENT:
- Obama attends NATO summit, meeting of NATO-Ukraine Commission, attends dinner on security challenges at Cardiff castle
- Senate, House out on final week of summer recess
- 11am: Investors, activists hold news conf. on 1m comments filed in support of political spending petition to SEC “to expose the hidden influence of corporate money”
- 11am: FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler delivers remarks on future of broadband
- Noon: Treasury Sec. Jack Lew delivers remarks commemorating Treasury Dept’s 225th anniversary
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Ballot Initiatives; Ads Pulled in Alaska
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Tibco said to pitch sale to private equity amid strategic review
- Manulife strengthens Canada hold with Standard Life purchase
- Commerzbank said near $650m settlement on Iran violations
- August U.S. comp. sales seen in line on school shopping
- Home Depot working with Symantec to investigate suspected breach
- Samsung unveils wraparound Note to counter large-screen iPhones
- Draghi push for ECB easing intensifies as ABS plan in focus
- Germany’s factory orders rebound in sign of returning growth
- BOJ keeps record easing as Kuroda aims to sustain recovery
- Computers for hire said to send stolen JPMorgan data to Russia
- Export-Import plan said to leave companies without loan clarity
- PVH rises after second-quarter profit tops analysts’ estimates
- China said to limit foreign TV content on streaming websites
AM EARNS:
- Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $0.29 - Preview
- Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) 9:15am, $0.09 - Preview
- Joy Global (JOY) 6am, $0.84 - Preview
- Mattress Firm (MFRM) 6am, $0.60
- UTi Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, $0.01
- VeriFone Systems (PAY) Bef-mkt, $0.35 - Preview
PM EARNS:
- Ambarella (AMBA) 4:05pm, $0.28
- Cooper Cos (COO) 4pm, $1.90
- Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.32
- Infoblox (BLOX) 4:05pm, $0.01
- Quiksilver (ZQK) 4:04pm, $0.03
- Seachange Intl (SEAC) 4:02pm, $(0.21)
- Verint Systems (VRNT) 4:05pm, $0.60
- Zumiez (ZUMZ) 4pm, $0.23
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Nickel Rises to Seven-Week High on Philippine Ore-Export Concern
- Iron Ore Slump No Bar to Supply as China Mines Shut: Commodities
- WTI Crude Declines on Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories; Brent Falls
- Philippine Ore Ban May Almost Triple Nickel Deficit: Bull Case
- Gold Trades Little Changed Above 11-Week Low on Demand to Dollar
- Corn Holds Near Lowest Since 2010 as U.S. Harvest Seen at Record
- Vegetable Oil Prices Seen Recovering, Oil World’s Mielke Says
- LME to Start Aluminum Premium Contract Early 2Q15: Chamberlain
- U.K. Power Jumps as EDF Delays Start of Four Nuclear Reactors
- Christie in Mexico Calls for U.S. to End Oil Export Restrictions
- Saudi Arabia Selling Oil to U.S. Imperiled by Shale Boom: Energy
- Rio’s Andrew Woodley to Take Over Oyu Tolgoi Mine Amid Disputes
- Bean-Hoarding Epidemic Deepens Dollar Shortage: Argentina Credit
- Philippine Ore Ban Wins Support While Implementation Far Off
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team