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Takeaway: Our Mass Deceleration thesis is in full play and the stocks are all down. There is precedent for lower, however.

Chart of the day

The chart below displays the indexed 52 week trading range for the major stocks with Macau exposure:

  • Our Mass Deceleration thesis unfolded faster than we expected, driving the last two legs of the 6 month Macau bear market.
  • Yes the stocks are beat up but there is precedent for even lower prices – looking over the past 12 months, not all stocks are on their backs.
  • From this view, MPEL and SJM look the most beat up while WYNN, Wynn Macau, and MGM are still trading above the midpoint of their respective 52 week range.
  • We’re not there yet, but when we see fundamental stabilization or a catalyst emerge, Galaxy (0027HK) and LVS look the most interesting to us on the long side.

MACAU STOCK RANGES - stock prices