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CORELOGIC HPI DATA - THE DILEMMA

Takeaway: Corelogic data shows 1-month of stabilization amid what has been a steadily decelerating trend.

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume. 

 

CORELOGIC HPI DATA - THE DILEMMA - Compendium 090214

 

Today's Focus: July/August CoreLogic Home Price Report

CoreLogic released its monthly home price report for July/August earlier this morning. Unlike S&P/Case-Shiller, which is a rolling 3-month average repeat sales index,CoreLogic is a single month index released on almost no lag. Essentially, it gives you information three months more current than what you get from Case-Shiller. 

 

The Data:  Home price growth accelerated +10bps to 7.4% in July vs downwardly revised June figures (June revised from +7.5% to +7.3%).  The forward looking projection for August estimates a MoM increase of +0.6%, which equates to flat sequential year-over-year growth of +7.3%. 

 

The Dilemma(s): 

  • Revision to HPI estimate methodology:  Back in February, CoreLogic revised the methodology underpinning its month ahead HPI estimate from one based on hard, MLS price data to an econometric model consistent with its intermediate and long-term HPI projections.  Subsequent to the February methodology change, the volatility and magnitude of revisions seems to have increased significantly.  In short, the forward 1-month estimate has become a less reliable indicator of real-time HPI trends
  • June/July – A Tale of Shifting Slope:  Last months (June) release was consistent with the post-February HPI deceleration trend with home price growth slowing from 8.3% in May to 7.5% in June to +7.0% in July.  However, the estimate revisions in the July release completely shifted the slope in HPI – instead of consistent, ongoing 50-80bps deceleration in the rate of HPI change, the latest release shows a positive inflection in July and the expectation for 3-months of stable growth through August.   

 

The Decision:   Its worth re-highlighting our base conceptual framework for housing as its been effective across cycles:

 

(1) Demand leads HPI (& we know housing demand trends in real-time) ... (2) Home price growth follows the slope of demand on an 12-18mo lag ... (3) housing related equities follow the slope of home price growth

 

We have anchored on the 2nd derivative move in HPI trends as a key signal because, historically, equity prices across the housing complex have followed the slope in home price growth. 

 

This same dynamic has played out again in 2014 with housing related equities posting negative returns and significantly underperforming alongside the 4 months of discrete deceleration since home price growth peaked in February.   

 

Headfake or Inflection:  So, what do we do with a fledgling inflection in home price growth?  

 

Tactically, to the extent the market is discounting zero or low-single digit price growth into 1Q15, a flattening or slowdown in the rate of home price deceleration would be a positive catalyst for housing equities. 

 

The July HPI data is certainly a notable counter-trend shift but with just a single month of data, steepening comps in the back half of the year, and our demand model signaling an imminent peak in HPI, we’re hesitant to pivot on our bearish intermediate term outlook on housing.  Bottoms (& tops) are processes, not points, and, at present, we’re content to await confirmatory data.

 

It's worth noting that while sales comps ease through 2H14, price comps don’t begin to ease until Feb 2015 (hardest near-term comp is Oct which was +11.9% YoY). As such, we think the next 6 months of pricing data will continue weigh on the housing complex.

 

 

CORELOGIC HPI DATA - THE DILEMMA - Corelogic Aug YoY TTM

 

CORELOGIC HPI DATA - THE DILEMMA - Corelogic Ex Distressed Aug YoY TTM

 

CORELOGIC HPI DATA - THE DILEMMA - Pending vs Corelogic 15Mo lag

 

 

About CoreLogic:

CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 55 million observations sourced from CoreLogic's property information database. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming), and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, which provides a more accurate constant-quality view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI covers 6,208 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 572 Core Based Statistical Areas (85 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,027 counties (82 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake


Why Semiconductor Stocks May Run Even Higher: Hedgeye’s Berger


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8 Quick Takeaways on #Nike's Gut Punch to #UnderArmour (Courtesy of #KevinDurant)

Takeaway: UA will come back heavy within six months' time and endorse someone big.

8 Quick Takeaways on #Nike's Gut Punch to #UnderArmour (Courtesy of #KevinDurant) - kd1

 

NKE, UA - Durant spurns Under Armour to return to Nike

  • "With Durant's seven-year contract with Nike expiring, Under Armour offered him a 10-year deal worth $265 million to $285 million. According to ESPN, Nike exercised its right to match any rival shoe company's offer to the All-Star guard. Nike officials told Durant and his representatives at Jay Z's Roc Nation Sports on Saturday that they would match Under Armour's offer."
  • "Based on the ESPN report, Durant stands to make more money from Nike over the next two years than the $41.2 million the Thunder will owe him during that span."

 8 Quick Takeaways on #Nike's Gut Punch to #UnderArmour (Courtesy of #KevinDurant) - niked

8 Quick Takeaways on the Nike/Durant deal:  

 

  1. The extra $20 million dollars in endorsement spend per year needs to generate an incremental $150mm in footwear sales in order to make it margin accretive for NKE. 
  2. In other words, KD needs to eclipse King James as the leader in the basketball footwear marketplace. 
  3. For NKE that translates to 0.9% growth in its footwear business - for UA to make the $28.5mm deal margin accretive it would need to grow the footwear category by 76%. 
  4. Uner Armour's bid did not have much to do with ROI. 
  5. The reality is that Under Armour is big enough now that it probably needs a mega-star to grow its footwear business and elevate its brand. 
  6. Tom Brady (UA's biggest name currently) won't cut it. 
  7. When the brand was in its infancy, it could simply put basketball shoes on "C" players in the NBA, and it was enough to boost the brand. Those days are over. 
  8. Our sense on this loss is that UA will come back heavy within six months' time and endorse someone big. It already has Board approval for the capital outlay, and it won't let that money go unspent.  

Nike's video "THE BADDEST" from this spring.


Retail Callouts (9/2): NKE, UA, LULU, DG, FDO, DLTR, JCP

Takeaway: NKE gut punches UA by overspending on KD. Latest DG bid still too little. Interesting insight on Yoga/ LULU addressable market in China.

HEDGEYE RETAIL IDEA LIST

 

Retail Callouts (9/2): NKE, UA, LULU, DG, FDO, DLTR, JCP - chart1 9 2

 

EVENTS TO WATCH

 

Wenesday (9/3)

  • GII - Earnings Call: 8:30am
  • VNCE - Earnings Call: 9:00am

 

Thursday (9/4)

  • PVH - Earnings Call: 9:00am
  • BEBE - Earnings Call: 4:30pm
  • ZQK - Earnings Call: 4:30pm
  • ZUMZ - Earnings Call: 5:00pm

 

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

NKE, UA - Durant spurns Under Armour to return to Nike

(http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-kevin-durant-nike-20140901,0,5469465.story)

 

  • "'Excited and humbled to sign back with the swoosh!' Durant tweeted late Sunday, referring to the Nike logo."
  • "'We are pleased to extend our relationship with Kevin Durant, one of the most exciting players in the game,' said Heter Myers, a spokesman for Nike."
  • "With Durant's seven-year contract with Nike expiring, Under Armour offered him a 10-year deal worth $265 million to $285 million. According to ESPN, Nike exercised its right to match any rival shoe company's offer to the All-Star guard. Nike officials told Durant and his representatives at Jay Z's Roc Nation Sports on Saturday that they would match Under Armour's offer."
  • "Based on the ESPN report, Durant stands to make more money from Nike over the next two years than the $41.2 million the Thunder will owe him during that span."

 

Takeaway: Going from $8.5mm to $28.5mm per year is a nice pay day for KD. The extra $20 million dollars in endorsement spend per year needs to generate an incremental $150mm in footwear sales in order to make it margin accretive for NKE. Meaning KD needs to eclipse King James as the leader in the basketball footwear marketplace. For NKE that translates to 0.9% growth in its footwear business - for UA to make the $28.5mm deal margin accretive it would need to grow the footwear category by 76%. But for UA, its bid did not have much to do with ROI. The reality is that the company is big enough now that it probably needs a mega-star to grow its footwear business and elevate its brand. Tom Brady (UA's biggest name currently) won't cut it. When the brand was in its infancy, it could simply put basketball shoes on C players in the NBA, and it was enough to boost the brand. But those days are over. Our sense on this loss is that UA will come back heavy within six months' time and endorse someone big. It already has Board approval for the capital outlay, and it won't let that money go unspent. 

 

DG - Dollar General Enhances Proposal to Acquire Family Dollar

(http://investor.shareholder.com/dollar/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=868438)

 

  • "Dollar General Corporation today announced that it has sent an enhanced acquisition proposal to the Board of Directors of Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Under the terms of the revised proposal, Dollar General would increase its all-cash proposal for all outstanding shares of Family Dollar to $80.00 per share."
  • "To provide even greater certainty of consummation to the Family Dollar Board, Dollar General also increased the number of stores that it would be willing to agree to divest to 1,500 if ordered by the Federal Trade Commission and, as further evidence of its confidence in its ability to obtain antitrust approval, has agreed to pay a $500 million reverse break-up fee to Family Dollar relating to antitrust matters. All other terms and conditions of the proposal remain unchanged."

 

Takeaway: At $80 the new offer is now a 7.5% premium to the DLTR offer on the table up from 5.5%. To us, these seem like baby steps. In addition, DG's comment that it will divest up to 1,500 stores if required to do so by the FTC seems pretty ridiculous. It will divest EVERY store that the FTC mandates. It should have said what it means, which is that "we won't walk away form this deal as long as the FTC mandates 1,500 stores or less."

 

On the whole topic of anti-trust, we're sticking to what we said when the bid was announced. We can debunk FDO's reasoning with just one word: Walmart. We have a hard time seeing how the FTC would be overly concerned with a dollar store monopoly. First, there's not a single thing inside a Dollar Store that is proprietary to that format. Second, FDO and DG have both been shifting increasingly to consumables. The combined company could not have monopolistic qualities in that regard even if it tried. But most importantly, as noted above, all DG's lawyers have to do is utter one word to the FTC -- WalMart. Even if WMT wasn't rolling out a neighborhood market concept, it would be so hard to prove that a merged DG/FDO is bad for the consumer. FDO's tactics are a head-scratcher if it's goal is to maximize shareholder value.

 

We still think DG wins at a price of $85 or more, implying 12.5x LTM EBITDA. #expensive (even more so if it includes shrinking its core -- which will presumably be among its better locations)

 

LULU - Lululemon's Asian Push

(http://www.wwd.com/markets-news/intimates-activewear/lululemons-asian-push-7855149)

 

  • "Lululemon Athletica Inc.’s new general manager for Asia said this year and next will lay the groundwork for the yogawear company’s global expansion plans as the brand tries to tap into China’s growing interest in the sector."
  • "The brand already has seven 'showrooms' in Asia — four in Hong Kong, two in Singapore and one in Shanghai…the brand is looking to open its first full-fledged store in Asia, either in Hong Kong or Singapore, possibly as soon as the end of this year. The company is also working on rolling out a Chinese-language Web site by mid-2015. After the Chinese site’s launch, Lee hopes to set up a shop in Alibaba’s Tmall."
  • "Lee said there are feasibility studies under way for Japan and South Korea but the company’s focus is setting up shop in China. He declined to give sales figures, but said that Lululemon’s China sales have the potential to double those of the brand in America, adding that the profile of the company’s typical customer in China is a professional woman aged 25 to 40."
  • "Unofficial estimates suggest 10 million people are practicing yoga in China...Yan said China’s yoga industry is growing three times faster than the U.S. and she is optimistic that foreign labels such as Lululemon will do well if their marketing is done right."

 

Takeaway: Some interesting color on the Yoga market in China. According to this article, about 10mm people practice Yoga in China (0.7% of the population) compared to 20mm in the US (6.5% of the population). In the US, the average Yogi spends on average $505 per year on yoga - $325 of which is spent on apparel and equipment. If we do some back of the envelope math and extrapolate that to China we get to a $3.25bil addressable market, which according to the owner of the largest studio network in the country is growing at a clip 3x that in the US. LULU is in print saying it would have 20 stores in Asia by 2017, but perhaps the more interesting play here is the online T-Mall store. Brands like NKE, AdiBok, and GPS already have store fronts on Alibaba's marketplace giving the brands a reach far beyond what current retail footprints allow. LULU would be wise to follow suit.

 

OTHER NEWS

 

JCP - J.C. Penney Opens Brooklyn Store

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/mass-off-price/jc-penney-opens-brooklyn-store-7855184)

 

  • "'We’ve got to keep evolving this company. We are not going back to 2011,' Ullman said during an interview at the grand opening of Penney’s in Brooklyn on Friday, showcasing the company’s most advanced vision on interior design and merchandise display."
  • “'Despite all the turnaround issues, we are using this store as a laboratory,” Ullman said. 'By far, this is the most impressive and best expression of J.C. Penney.'”
  • "Ullman said he expects the Brooklyn store to rank among the chain’s top 10 performers...Ullman made the decision to open at Gateway during his first stint at Penney’s. He declined to project a volume for the store, though one official said that, since the soft opening a week before the official opening, business was 12 percent ahead of plan."

 

Retail Callouts (9/2): NKE, UA, LULU, DG, FDO, DLTR, JCP - chart2 9 2

 

LUX - Luxottica CEO Guerra Departs After Differences With Founder

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-01/luxottica-ceo-guerra-leaves-ray-ban-maker-after-decade-at-helm.html)

 

  • "Luxottica Group SpA, the world’s largest eyewear maker, said Andrea Guerra stepped down as chief executive officer after a decade at the helm following differences with founder Leonardo Del Vecchio."

 

APP - S&P Downgrades American Apparel

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/financial/sp-downgrades-american-apparel-7854436)

 

  • The ratings agency lowered its corporate credit rating on the Los Angeles-based vertical retailer to 'CCC-minus' from 'CCC' and its rating on the company’s $200 million in senior secured notes due in 2020 to 'CC' from 'CCC-minus.'"

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker

Note: Using the z-score in the tables below as a coefficient of variation for standard error helps us flag the relative positioning of the commodities in the CRB Index. It is not intended as a predictive signal for the reversion to trailing twelve month historical averages. For week-end price data, please refer to “Commodities: Weekly Quant” published at the end of the previous week. Feel free to ping us for additional color.    

------

 

1.       CFTC Net Futures and Options Positioning CRB Index: The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases “Commitments of Traders Reports” at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday. The release usually includes data from the previous Tuesday (Net Positions as of Tuesday Close) and includes the net positions of “non-commercial” futures and options participants. A “Non-Commercial” market participant is defined as a “large speculator.” We observe the weekly marginal changes in the overall positioning of “non-commercial” futures and options positions to assess the directionally-biased capitulation risk among those with large, speculative  positions.

 

  • The Sugar, Copper, and Coffee markets experienced the most BULLISH relative positioning change in the CRB week-over-week.

 

Spot Coffee contracts increased +7.8% last week and are currently +3.7% today in New York. We hosted an expert call with Judith Gaines of J. Gaines Consulting on July 21st. A replay and call summary is included via the link below:

 

Coffee Outlook in 2015 and Beyond

 

To Judy’s credit, front-month Arabica contracts are +11% since we hosted the call:

  • Her thesis is that Brazil, which accounts for more than 1/3rd of global production, is in the middle of a two year- production deficit for the first time ever
  • Price estimate for coffee into next year is a relative range of +40-100% from here
  • The severity of the crop devastation should be realized by the market near-term (next several weeks) into next spring
  • Estimate for aggregate production in Brazil for 2015 is 27M bags vs. 34M from consensus

The CFTC data report shows the market is +5/12/11% longer than its 1/3/6-month averages with the longest overall positioning since March 25th when coffee was previously near YTD highs. The market is net long about 1.7x average 6-month daily trading volume (z-score of +1.5x --> See below).

 

  • The Gold, Soybeans, and RBOB Gas markets experienced the most BEARISH relative positioning change in the CRB week-over-week

 

Because the CFTC data released on Friday reflects those holders through Tuesday, the change in the positioning of the gold market as reported last Friday reflected the market’s reaction post-Jackson Hole Commentary from the BOJ, ECB, and Federal Reserve two weeks ago:

  • Market as a whole took Draghi’s commentary as more dovish than Yellen’s on the margin.   
  • ECB policy statement will come on Thursday and the market is positioned for a pullback in the Euro out of the meeting:
  • Short position in the Euro is -2.6 standard deviations from its trailing 12-month average.

 

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart 1 CFTC Positioning

 

 

2.       Spot – Second Month Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward looking prices in the near-term.

  • The sugar, coffee and wheat markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES near-term
  • The lean hogs, soybeans, and live cattle markets expecting LOWER PRICES near-term

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart 2 spot 2nd year basis

 

 

3.       Spot – 1 Year Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward-looking prices between spot and the respective contract expiring in approximately 1-year.

 

  • The sugar, corn, and wheat markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES in 1-year  
  • The lean hogs, live cattle, and soybeans markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES in 1-year  

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart 3 spot 1 year basisvf

 

4.       Open Interest: Aggregate open interest measures the amount of opened positions in all actively traded futures contract months. Open interest can be thought of as “naked” or “directionally-biased” contracts as opposed to hedgers scalping and providing liquidity. Most of the open interest is created from large speculators or participants who are either: 1) Producers/sellers of the physical commodity hedging their cash market exposure or 2) Large speculators who are directionally-biased on price.

 

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart 4 Open Interest         

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

            


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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