Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, +

Takeaway: SIGMA review for companies reporting this week. Definitely worse on the margin, with very few exceptions.

SIGMA SUMMARY

Takeaway:

Here's a SIGMA review of every retailer that reported earnings this week. As a reminder, the analysis triangulates sales, inventories and margins. The vertical axis is the spread between sales and inventories -- the higher on the scale, the better.  The horizontal axis is the y/y change in EBIT margin. In effect, you want to be either in the upper right hand quadrant, or headed there. The opposite holds true for the lower left.

We've done this summary over the past few weeks, and the trends have been overwhelmingly positive -- with most companies improving inventories relative to sales and/or margins significantly. But this week, we're definitely looking at a different picture. The only companies that showed any material improvement were WSM and ANF -- and both of those names clearly had issues of their own that took the stocks down.  Interesting to see that the companies reporting so late in the season (i.e. taking longer to close their books) are the ones that are putting up the worst directional trends.

WSM - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart1

GES  - 2Q15 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart2

ANF - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart3

DG - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart4

CHS - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - chart5 8 29

PSUN - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - chart6 8 29

BWS - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - chart7 8 29

WTSL - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - chart8 8 28

TLYS - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - chart9 8 29

BBY - 2Q15 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart10

TIF - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart11

DSW - 2Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (8/29): SIGMAs - WSM, GES, ANF, DG, TIF, BBY, DSW, + - 8 29 chart12

OTHER NEWS

WMT - Wal-Mart Looks Online for Chinese Growth

(http://online.wsj.com/articles/wal-mart-looks-online-for-chinese-growth-1409249529)

  • "As Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. courts investors for a highly anticipated public offering next month in the U.S., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is busy trying to win over online shoppers in the Chinese e-commerce company's backyard."
  • "Wal-Mart's online arm in China—called Yihaodian, meaning No. 1 Store—has recently increased the number of products sold on its site, built up its supply chain and streamlined its mobile site in a push to boost sales. Wal-Mart owns a 54% stake in Yihaodian."

TGT - How Target Aims To Turn Instagram Into Shopping Spree

(http://news.investors.com/08265-target-nordstrom-seek-instagram-shopping-spree.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo)

  • "Target on Wednesday adopted Curalate's software Like2Buy for its Target and Target Style Instagram feeds, in the hopes that users will turn a casual scroll into a shopping spree."
  • "Target has 319,000 Instagram followers and Target Style has 375,000, which means nearly 700,000 potential online customers."

APP - Robert Mintz appointed to American Apparel B.O.D.

(https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1336545/000089375014000041/sch13da.htm)

  • "On August 26, 2014, Lion/Hollywood designated Robert Mintz to be a director of the Issuer pursuant to its rights under the Investment Agreement, as amended to date."

GPS - Gap Files Report on Myanmar Factories

(http://www.wwd.com/business-news/government-trade/gap-files-report-on-myanmar-factories-7853489?module=hp-topstories)

  • "Through the U.S. Responsible Investment Reporting Requirements, U.S. companies making significant investments in Myanmar must be fully transparent about payments made to the government and about how they respect human rights in their business operations. Gap Inc., the first U.S. retailer to reenter Myanmar since sanctions were eased, submitted a report to the U.S. State Department this week on conditions it found at the first two factories it engaged to produce clothing for its Old Navy and Banana Republic factory stores."

GPS - Gap returning to television with ‘Dress Normal’ campaign

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/gap-returning-television-%E2%80%98dress-normal%E2%80%99-campaign?ad=news)

  • "Gap is returning to television. The brand debuted four commercials that will air on TV, in cinema, in stores and online. Created by Academy Award-nominated director David Fincher, the films were created with Wieden+Kennedy New York as part of Gap's new marketing campaign, Dress Normal. The TV campaign launches in the United States and United Kingdom in the week of Sept. 1."

JWN - SNEAK PEEK: Inside Canada’s first Nordstrom store

(http://globalnews.ca/news/1532192/sneak-peek-inside-canadas-first-nordstrom-store/)

  • "It’s just three weeks until American retailer Nordstrom opens their first store in Canada, but there’s still lots of work to be done."
  • "Shelves in the 140,000 square foot retail space at Chinook Centre remain bare, as hundreds of newly hired employees work to assemble racks and get familiar with the high-end merchandise they’ll soon be selling."

Analysis: Holt Renfrew to Close its Smaller Stores Amid Increased Competition

(http://www.retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2014/8/holt-renfrew-analysis)

  • "Holt Renfrew has announced that it will close its small Ottawa and Quebec City locations early next year, and we think that more Holt Renfrew store closures could follow. The company will instead concentrate on operating larger locations in just five Canadian cities. This strategy could be in response to expected competition from Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom, both opening Canadian locations over the next several years. "