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Takeaway: Still soft - projecting down mid single digit August (YoY). Margin pressure may be escalating.

Last week's numbers finally in

We just obtained last week’s numbers (Augusts 18-24) and still nothing to be positive about. Daily table revenues averaged HK$819 million, down 8% from the same week in August of 2013.  Month to date, ADTR is tracking down 5%.  Indeed, full month gross gaming revenues (includes slots) should come in down mid-single digits or maybe worse.


Softness in VIP volumes, compounded by a lower hold % particularly at the larger Cotai casinos, weighed on last week's results. Volumes could end the month lower than that seen in July.  

Mass growth appears to be decelerating through the month and our low 20s% growth projection could prove aggressive.  Remember that Mass grew only 17% in July.  We're hearing entry requirements for high commission rebates may have been relaxed which could further pressure margins. We know labor has been running meaningfully higher but it now appears that Mass reinvestment rates are escalating as well.

LVS continues to outperform here in August and although its market share moderated somewhat this past week, it remains well above trend.  LVS’s gain was SJM’s loss as all other concessionaires are tracking close to recent trend.