LV STRIP: JULY EXPECTATIONS

Takeaway: We expect that July was solid with gaming revenues up 6-10% assuming normal hold.

Nevada should release gaming revenues this week

With another easy comparison, we are projecting YoY growth of 6-10% for Strip gaming revenues in July.  McCarran airport traffic increased 1.9% YoY, slightly below the year-to-date average, while taxi trips increased 2.4% in July.  Both statistics have proven to be significant predictors of gaming revenue growth.  

The comparison is easy as July 2013 experienced a 14% Yoy decline in GGR as baccarat volume dropped 16%.  The wildcard, as always, will be baccarat volume and table hold percentage.  For this analysis, we are using normal slot and table hold and baccarat volume growth of 20%.  

July growth should be in line with investor expectations but we would caution that the August comparison is difficult, up 20% in 2013.  August 2014 could show a meaningful decline in gaming revenues.

LV STRIP: JULY EXPECTATIONS - july