I get a tremendous amount of feedback (mostly positive) about staying with this important macro call that we established in Q2. Initially we coined it Breaking The Buck. In Q3 we changed it to Burning The Buck (we update our 3 core Global Macro Themes quarterly). I understand that macro inverse correlations like this aren’t perpetual. But they sure are profitable while they last.
In the chart below, Andrew Barber and I have shown what the last 7 weeks have looked like from the perspective of this simple 2-factor setup (SP500 versus the USD Index). For economists, hindsight like this is always crystal clear – but we wanted to show it in to your inbox this morning so that you can put it in front of the next economist/strategist that comes into your office and tells you this can’t be this simple.
In chaos theory, you take a dynamic/complex system and find deep simplicity in underlying patterns. That’s all this is – its math. As soon as the crowding out effect starts to erode the returns associated with a US Government sponsored Dollar devaluation, I will change my stance. For now… Monkey see, Monkey do…
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer