THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 25, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 1.08% downside to 1967 and 0.43% upside to 1997.                              

                                                                                                 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.89 from 1.91
  • VIX closed at 11.47 1 day percent change of -2.47%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):           

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Natl, July, est. 0.20 (prior 0.12)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Composite PMI, Aug. prelim (prior 60.6)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Services PMI, est. 58.0 (prior 60.8)
  • 10am: New Home Sales, July, est. 429k (prior 406k)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Mfg, Aug., est. 12.8 (prior 12.7)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $29b 3M bills, $24b 6M bills

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out on August recess
    • FCC deadline for comments on proposed Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger
    • 1pm: Atlantic Council briefing on “Mexico’s Energy Reform: Ready to Launch” report

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Roche to buy InterMune for $8.3b, adding lung drug
  • Roche said to have decided against bidding for rest of Chugai
  • CME opens electronic futures trading after 4-hour delay
  • Burger King mulls Tim Hortons deal in tax-saving Canada move
  • Occidental talks to Mubadala on $3b asset, PIW reports
  • Jackson Hole theme is labor markets can’t take higher rates
  • Pershing, Valeant say Allergan investors demand mtg on deal
  • Wal-Mart said to move India COO Mediratta to U.S. ops
  • Advaxis, Merck enter clinical trial pact for cancer treatment
  • Goldman’s new partner class unlikely to grow from 2012: WSJ
  • California quake to cost insurers up to $1b, Eqecat says
  • German business confidence drops for 4th month as risks rise
  • China urges U.S. to halt close air surveillance
  • Friends Life said to hire Goldman for sale of intl unit

 

EARNINGS:

    • OSI Systems (OSIS) 8:30am, $1.17
    • Prospect Capital (PSEC) 4pm, $0.32
    • Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 5pm, $0.67
    • Renren (RENN) 6pm, ($0.08)

               

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent, WTI Oil Prices Reverse Decline as Libya Tensions Persist
  • China Gold Imports Drop for Fifth Month on Weak Consumer Demand
  • Speculators Lower Gold Bull Wagers on Rate Outlook: Commodities
  • Soybeans Slump to Lowest Since 2010 as U.S. Crop Seen at Record
  • CME Opens Electronic Trading on Futures After Four-Hour Delay
  • Copper in New York Swings Near 3-Week High After Trading Delay
  • Palm Oil Prices Seen Rebounding in 4Q on Demand, CIMB’s Ng Says
  • Hedge Fund Crude Bets Tumble Amid Surging Global Supply: Energy
  • Kurdish Oil Shipments From Turkey Said to Resume as Tanker Loads
  • TOP Oil Market News: Brent Rebounds on Libya to Iraq; WTI Steady
  • Rhodium Rally Pushes Price Past Platinum, Gold: Chart of the Day
  • BNP Paribas Recommends Selling Oct. Singapore Fuel Oil Crack
  • California Quake Crumples Buildings With Scores Injured in Napa
  • Gold Falls as Dollar Advances on Fed Outlook; Silver Halts Drop

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more