The Hedgeye Daily Outlook

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 20, 2014

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or 1.49% downside to 1952 and 0.27% upside to 1987.                                                                                                                             



The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 1 Macro risk ranges


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 2 ETF Risk Ranges




The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 3 Equity Sentiment




  • YIELD CURVE: 1.97 from 1.97
  • VIX closed at 12.21 1 day percent change of -0.89%


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):




• Argentina to pay foreign-currency bonds locally

• GE to invest $3.5b in aircraft engine operations: Nikkei

• Samsung developing smartphone chip to replace Qualcomm: Maeil

• Chinese hackers use Heartbleed to enter Community Health

• Apple rises to record amid optimism around new products

• Citigroup said to weigh sale of Japan consumer bank unit

• U.K. FCA seen unlikely to cap fund manager pay

• AT&T seeks to offer faster high-speed Internet vs Google

• Walgreens CFO pressured to exit after forecast error: WSJ

• Dodgers TV blackout fuels unease over Comcast-Time Warner

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX says not raising private capital

• Softbank’s Son says considering next move after T-Mobile

• Amazon may start drone delivery in India: Economic Times

• Petsmart exploring options including possible sale

• U.S. Coast Guard responds to Duke Energy diesel spill in Ohio





• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 15 (prior -2.7%)

• 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories

• 2pm: Fed releases July FOMC minutes




  • President Obama on vacation on Martha’s Vineyard
  • Senate, House out on August recess
  • 2pm: Brookings Institution discussion “Ukraine Crisis and Russia’s Place in the Intl Order”
  • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Reid on Mont., S.D.; Alaska; Obamacare




• Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $1.03 - Preview

• Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.12

• GasLog (GLOG) 6:02am, $0.11

• JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.37

• Madison Square Garden (MSG) 7:30am, $0.18

• Target (TGT) 7:30am, $0.78 - Preview

• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 8am, $0.00 - Preview

• Eaton Vance (EV) 8:45am, $0.62

• Raven Industries (RAVN) 9am, $0.26




• Hain Celestial (HAIN) 4pm, $0.89

• L Brands (LB) 4pm, $0.62 - Preview

• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 4:05pm, $0.89

• Synopsys (SNPS) 4:05pm, $0.60

• Semtech (SMTC) 4:30pm, $0.39




  • India Seen Passing China as World’s Biggest Cotton Producer
  • European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine: Energy
  • Putin Turns Poles Into Cider Lovers as Russia Food Ban Bites
  • 3-D Printed Jets and Bicycles Spur Demand for Metal: Commodities
  • Gold Little Changed Near 2-Week Low on Dollar as Platinum Falls
  • China Port Seen as Economic Barometer Set for Record Supply
  • Glencore Says Commodities Outlook from Copper to Zinc Improving
  • Zinc Paces Metals Advance as Glencore Cites Tightening Market
  • Cotton Crop in India Estimated at Near Record 39.6 Million Bales
  • Operations at Mongolia’s Tavan Tolgoi Mine Halted, Macmahon Says
  • Steel Rebar Falls to Record Low Before China PMI as Output Gains
  • Fortescue CEO Says Co. Expects Iron Ore Price to ’Drift Up’
  • Gabelli’s Bryan Tops Gold Funds as Miners Rally: Riskless Return
  • Russian Grain Trader Beating Cargill to Olam as Exports Surge

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 4 Commodities



The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 5 Currencies




The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 6 Global Per. 1D

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 7 Global Perf. 1Y




The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 8 Europe




The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 9 Asia




The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 10 middle east


The Hedgeye Macro Team


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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

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"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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