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The Hedgeye Daily Outlook

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 20, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or 1.49% downside to 1952 and 0.27% upside to 1987.                                                                                                                             

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 1 Macro risk ranges

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 2 ETF Risk Ranges

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 3 Equity Sentiment

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.97 from 1.97
  • VIX closed at 12.21 1 day percent change of -0.89%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

 

• Argentina to pay foreign-currency bonds locally

• GE to invest $3.5b in aircraft engine operations: Nikkei

• Samsung developing smartphone chip to replace Qualcomm: Maeil

• Chinese hackers use Heartbleed to enter Community Health

• Apple rises to record amid optimism around new products

• Citigroup said to weigh sale of Japan consumer bank unit

• U.K. FCA seen unlikely to cap fund manager pay

• AT&T seeks to offer faster high-speed Internet vs Google

• Walgreens CFO pressured to exit after forecast error: WSJ

• Dodgers TV blackout fuels unease over Comcast-Time Warner

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX says not raising private capital

• Softbank’s Son says considering next move after T-Mobile

• Amazon may start drone delivery in India: Economic Times

• Petsmart exploring options including possible sale

• U.S. Coast Guard responds to Duke Energy diesel spill in Ohio

 

 

ECONOMY:

 

• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 15 (prior -2.7%)

• 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories

• 2pm: Fed releases July FOMC minutes

 

GOVERNMENT:

 

  • President Obama on vacation on Martha’s Vineyard
  • Senate, House out on August recess
  • 2pm: Brookings Institution discussion “Ukraine Crisis and Russia’s Place in the Intl Order”
  • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Reid on Mont., S.D.; Alaska; Obamacare

 

AM EARNINGS:

 

• Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $1.03 - Preview

• Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.12

• GasLog (GLOG) 6:02am, $0.11

• JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.37

• Madison Square Garden (MSG) 7:30am, $0.18

• Target (TGT) 7:30am, $0.78 - Preview

• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 8am, $0.00 - Preview

• Eaton Vance (EV) 8:45am, $0.62

• Raven Industries (RAVN) 9am, $0.26

 

PM EARNINGS:

 

• Hain Celestial (HAIN) 4pm, $0.89

• L Brands (LB) 4pm, $0.62 - Preview

• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 4:05pm, $0.89

• Synopsys (SNPS) 4:05pm, $0.60

• Semtech (SMTC) 4:30pm, $0.39

                                                                                                                               

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

  • India Seen Passing China as World’s Biggest Cotton Producer
  • European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine: Energy
  • Putin Turns Poles Into Cider Lovers as Russia Food Ban Bites
  • 3-D Printed Jets and Bicycles Spur Demand for Metal: Commodities
  • Gold Little Changed Near 2-Week Low on Dollar as Platinum Falls
  • China Port Seen as Economic Barometer Set for Record Supply
  • Glencore Says Commodities Outlook from Copper to Zinc Improving
  • Zinc Paces Metals Advance as Glencore Cites Tightening Market
  • Cotton Crop in India Estimated at Near Record 39.6 Million Bales
  • Operations at Mongolia’s Tavan Tolgoi Mine Halted, Macmahon Says
  • Steel Rebar Falls to Record Low Before China PMI as Output Gains
  • Fortescue CEO Says Co. Expects Iron Ore Price to ’Drift Up’
  • Gabelli’s Bryan Tops Gold Funds as Miners Rally: Riskless Return
  • Russian Grain Trader Beating Cargill to Olam as Exports Surge

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 4 Commodities

 

CURRENCIES


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 5 Currencies

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 6 Global Per. 1D

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - Chart 7 Global Perf. 1Y

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 8 Europe

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 9 Asia

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 10 middle east

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS

Takeaway: Purchase demand declined for a 3rd week, holding below the 170- level for a 6th consecutive wk – the longest such soft streak since Aug '95

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume

 

*Note - to maintain cross-metric comparability, the purchase applications index shown in the table below represents the monthly average as opposed to the most recent weekly data point

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Compendium 082014

 

Today's Focus: MBA Mortgage Applications

The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended August 15th.

 

The Composite index gained 1.4% WoW, buttressed fully by refi activity, which was higher by 2.7%, while Purchase activity declined -0.4%. 

 

  • Lower Lows: Purchase demand declined for a 3rd consecutive week, sliding -0.4% to 164.1 on the index, down from 164.8 last week.  This marks the 6th consecutive week below the 170-level on the index – out “soft-ing” the February, weather distortion lows and the longest such streak since August of 1995.  Purchase demand is currently running -5.7% QoQ  and tracking at its lowest level since 2Q95. 
  • Refi & Rates:  Refinance activity increased +2.7% WoW with rates on the 30Y FRM contract declining a notable -6bps in the latest week to 4.29%.  Rates currently sit just north of the lowest level since May of last year while Refi activity remains down -31% YoY and continues to improve as we traverse through the easiest 2013 comps. 

 

Cash sales remain elevated and the regulation-catalyzed shift in the origination channel may be a challenge to intertemporal reliability and dampening reported demand as measured by the MBA survey, but the broader takeaway remains unchanged:

 

Multi-decade lows in purchase demand (modestly distorted or not) is not the stuff accelerating housing recoveries are made of.   We remain inclined to maintain our bearish on the housing complex until the slope of HPI deceleration inflects.

 

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Purchase Qtrly

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Purchase 4wk Rolling Ave

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Purchase LT w Summary Stats

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Composite LT w Summary Stats

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Refi   Purchase YoY

 

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - 30Y Rates

 

 

About MBA Mortgage Applications:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis. 

 

Frequency:

The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake

 


Diffusive Thoughts

This note was originally published at 8am on August 06, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.

-Thomas Edison

 

I recently picked up a new book called, “A Mind for Numbers”.  The book is written by Dr. Barbara Oakley, a professor of engineering at Oakland University, who, like many people, struggled with math and sciences while in high school.  Unlike most people with these struggles, she went on to become a very prominent professor in a very math oriented field.

 

The essence of the book is really about how to make a break through while studying any subject.  In doing so, the book proposes on relying on the two modes that our brains naturally work in: focused and diffused.  In focused thinking your brain logically works through problems in a careful and attentive manner. Meanwhile, diffused thinking occurs more in the background, your brain processes while you are doing other things like jogging, driving, playing sports, and so on.

 

Some of the most productive thinkers of our time actually systematically shifted theirs brains between the two modes.  In particular, Thomas Edison had a unique trick for shifting how his brain was operating.  Edison was known for his focus and work ethic, but he would also often take “cat naps” during the day.

 

During these small naps while sitting in a chair in his laboratory, Edison would hold a steel ball in his hands. As he would nod off into a deeper and deeper sleep, Edison would drop the ball and it would fall to the floor and naturally wake him. Thus Edison was able to switch into diffusive thinking, without getting into a much deeper sleep that would potentially make him groggy and slow his efforts.

Now for many of us stock market operators, a mid-day nap on the trading floor is probably not practical, but as Oakley writes in her book:

 

“The key is to do something else until your brain is consciously free of any thought of the problem.”

 

In effect, you need to distract your brain, so you can shift into diffusive thinking, so that the big picture part of your brain can kick into gear and help you solve the problem at hand. 

 

Diffusive Thoughts - EL chart 2

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind . . .

 

Like many of you, we tend to get in early and grind away at Hedgeye, but lately we have also been doing some diffusive thinking. On this front yesterday, my colleague Darius Dale prepared a 50 page presentation yesterday (after some long walks around our office park) that is titled, “Are You Prepared for Quad #4?”

 

As most of you know already, we look at economies based on our propriety GIP model (growth, inflation and policy).  In our view, as supported by historical studies, asset price returns are driven by shifts in growth, inflation and policy within an economy.  In the Chart of the Day, we highlight this graphically with a definition of the four quadrants.  Quad 4 occurs when growth slows and inflation decelerates, which typically elicits a dovish policy response.

 

If you’d like to see the full length presentation, please email your institutional sales contact or simply email sales@hedgeye.com.  Also CLICK HERE for a short video that Darius did on HedgeyeTV going through the key points.

A key catalyst for a shift in our thinking, aside from long walks or baths, has been the break out in the U.S. dollar. As Darius notes in the presentation, the investment conclusions from a shift into Q4 for the domestic economy are as follows:

  • Bonds over stocks;
  • Defensive equities over cyclical equities;
  • Late cycle investments over early cycle investments;
  • Buy U.S. dollar and short commodities.

As it relates to translating this directly into what we would recommend selling and owning under this scenario, we’d focus on the following:

  • Long – Long term treasuries (TLT), Muni Bonds (MUB), Healthcare (XLV), and Old China (FXI)
  • Shorts (or Underweights / Sells) – Russell 2000 (IWM), High-yield credit (JNK), Homebuilders (ITB), Regional Banks (KRE), Retailers (XRT), and Eurozone (EZU)

On the last point of selling the Eurozone, over the last month European equities have been getting crushed.  Every major European equity index is down over the last month ranging from the U.K. down -4% to Russia down -14%.  Germany is also clearly in the midst of a World Cup hangover as German benchmark equities are down -9.5% and now down over 5% for 2014.

 

Speaking of Germany, German factory orders were an unmitigated disaster for June.  Consensus expectations were for an increase of 0.9% from May and the actual number came in at -3.2%.  On a year-over-year basis, the numbers were just as abysmal as factory orders that declined -2.4%.  This marked the largest decline since September 2011.  For those long of Germany, hopefully Oktoberfest is a positive catalyst!

 

Switching gears for a second, our Restaurant and Consumer Staples Sector Head Howard Penney has had a very successful alpha generating year within the restaurant sector and after rolling up his sleeves, focusing, and then taking a break (yoga?) to diffuse the thoughts, he has a healthy pipeline of Best Ideas in the Consumer Staples Sector.

 

The next idea he is rolling out will be a short call on Hain Celestial Group (HAIN).  We added the idea to our Best Ideas list as a short on Monday and the deep dive call on the name will occur on Thursday August 14th at 1pm eastern.  If you’d like the materials for the call, please email sales at Hedgeye (this call won’t be pro bono though, alpha doesn’t come cheap!).

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Diffusive Thoughts - Chart of the Day


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%

August 20, 2014

August 20, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

August 20, 2014 - Slide2

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August 20, 2014 - Slide5

August 20, 2014 - Slide6

 

BEARISH TRENDS

August 20, 2014 - Slide7

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August 20, 2014 - Slide10

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Changing Up Our Retail Idea List

Takeaway: We made 10 changes to our Idea List – 7 Shorts/3 Long – and outlined duration for each. NKE, FL, M, DDS, COH, DKS, AMZN, DG, HBI, URBN.

This week, we made several changes to our Retail Ideas list. We also changed the format to address how we see each of these names playing out by duration. In case you’re unfamiliar with how we approach duration…

A) TRADE = 3-weeks or less. This is largely near-term catalyst-driven. Not where we spend the bulk of our time, but need to be aware of what’s coming down the pike nonetheless.

B) TREND = 3 months or more. This is primarily driven by quarterly modeling assumptions 2-3 quarters out.

C) TAIL = 3 years or less. This is the long-term call about market share, margins, and the capital needed to get there. For all names we recommend, we actually go out 5 years.

 

Changing Up Our Retail Idea List - Retail IDeas

 

SHORTS

1) We added Foot Locker to the Short Bench. Trends look fine for FL today, especially in Europe, which is about 25% of sales. Nike and UA are fueling its momentum in the US as well. But the company is putting up a 10%+ EBIT margin on productivity of over $500/ft – 25% higher than historical peak. On top of that we’ve got a 15x p/e (close to peak), and are staring at sentiment scores that are among the highest in retail.

2) We added Macy’s to our Bench, and put it right alongside Nordstrom as names we’ll opportunistically look to get louder on as the research becomes more conclusive, or the price heads higher.

3) We removed Dillard’s from our bench. We originally were cautious on the name as we thought (and still think) that the $100+ real estate values being thrown around the Street were overstated by 3x. What we did not appreciate is the free cash flow story behind DDS. We won’t buy that FCF story here, but we definitely won’t short it.

4) We removed COH from our Top Three shorts. The punchline is that we think that there is at best $5 downside for this name, which is not enough for us given the risk to the upside. As much as we think that this Brand and Financial model are broken, we think COH makes a lousy short here. Here’s the link to our note on the name. (Link: CLICK HERE)

5) We moved DKS in place of COH on the top three. It’ll stay there unless the price corrects or estimates post-quarter come out to be too conservative.

6) We pulled Nike out of the Short side of the ledger and put it on the Long Bench. The name remains ridiculously expensive, but the fact of the matter is that in recent weeks Nike has made some moves that are incredibly rational on the cost side – like passing on Kevin Durant (to UA) and letting Manchester United go to Adidas. Both of those alone save Nike about $100mm/year. Combine that with easier SG&A comps in another 2-3 quarters, and Nike will likely have consensus numbers in the bag – and then some.

7) We added Amazon to the Short Bench. We’re long term believers in the model, but every incredible story has a price. We can’t believe that 300x earnings and 35x EBITDA is the right one for AMZN.

8) We removed DG from the Bench. But then about 30 seconds later we put it back on. We get the excitement around synergies of a deal with FDO. But we think that this bidding war is far from over. It’s already rich at 11.6x EBITDA, but we think it ultimately will have to pay somewhere in the mid-$80s for FDO – or about 13x EBITDA. When it is looking to pay that much for such a poor quality asset, we need to really ask ourselves about the prospects management sees in its core.

 

LONGS

1) Added Nike, as noted above.

2) Added URBN. This is a name we want to be bullish on, but have been wading in slowly. We think the management team is exceptional, we like the unit growth and e-commerce platform, and the problems at the core UO concept are definitely not terminal. The only thing holding us back is that having such highly productive concepts like Urban and Anthropologie that are doing $700/ft and $1,000, respectively are a double edged sword. They’re highly profitable, and very defendable. But turns in the business – both on the upside and downside – take an extremely long time to play out. Our point is that we could be sitting here in a year and people might still be complaining about weakness at UO.  At some point it won’t matter, and that time might be now. But we need to do more research to get the answer.

3) Added HBI. Let’s be clear…we don’t like this company or the business. This is a classic example of a company with a growth-challenged base business that is obfuscating its core by acquiring other companies. It’s track record is amazing…just as one acquisition approaches its 12th month, it goes ahead and buys something else. But whether we like it or not, HBI has a great 12-months ahead. It has year 2 synergies of Maidenform plus a full year of DB Apparel. Growth will look solid, HBI will beat conservative expectations, and investors will get paid with stock repo and dividends in the interim. As a kicker, lower cotton prices start to accrue to HBI in about another two quarters. We think this stock works from here.


Expert Call: COFFEE PRICES MAY MOVE MUCH HIGHER FROM HERE

Expert Call: COFFEE PRICES MAY MOVE MUCH HIGHER FROM HERE - Call Marketing Image

 

Hedgeye Macro is hosting an expert call this Thursday, August 21st at 11:00 a.m. EDT to better understand the developing risks to Brazilian coffee production capacity next year and beyond. Brazil accounts for more than 1/3rd of global coffee production, and the damage from an unprecedented drought in the first three months of 2014 may have caused irreparable damage to a much larger portion of the 2015-16 crop than believed by consensus.

Our expert speaker will be Judith Ganes-Chase, founder and president of Ganes Consulting, an independent agricultural softs commodities research and consultancy firm. Judy worked on the sell-side for 20 years before founding J. Ganes Consulting in 2001.

Call Objective:

  •  With irreparable damage from last winter’s ---(BRAZIL SUMMER) drought already manifest, consensus opinion is much too optimistic on Brazil’s production capacity into next year and 2016
  • Lifecycle of the Tree: The idea that above average rainfall can restore soil moisture and rehydrate the trees allowing the lack of vegetative growth to be offset is simply not true. Production estimates for a 2015-16 crop based on the coffee from trees that have not yet flowered are PREMATURE
  • End users may be able to hedge OTC through financial intermediaries, but the assumption that the crop paid for in the future is locked-in and available is an issue. Scarcity may be a problem à ESPECIALLY OF BETTER GRADES OF COFFEE.
  • Relevant Tickers: CAFE, JO, SBUX, DNKN, MCD, MDLZ, GMCR, THI  

Call Participant Instructions:

Participant Dialing Instructions

Toll Free Number:

Direct Dial Number:

Conference Code: 998836#

Materials: CLICK HERE

 

About Judith-Ganes Chase:

Judy has over 25 years of experience covering the agricultural softs space. Prior to founding Ganes Consulting in 2001, she spent most of her career as a senior softs analyst at Merrill Lynch and Shearson Lehman. Her most recent post was as the Director of News and Research at InterCommercial Markets.

 

 Ms. Ganes-Chase is a contributing member to Elliott Associates, Gerson-Lehrman Groups Council, and Coleman Research Group. She is also a participant in the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) research program and makes regular contributions to several industry-specific publications: Specialty Coffee Association of America, National Coffee Association, and the International Women’s Coffee Alliance (IWCA).    

 

Hedgeye Macro Team

   


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