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Takeaway: Purchase demand declined for a 3rd week, holding below the 170- level for a 6th consecutive wk – the longest such soft streak since Aug '95

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume

 

*Note - to maintain cross-metric comparability, the purchase applications index shown in the table below represents the monthly average as opposed to the most recent weekly data point

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Compendium 082014

Today's Focus: MBA Mortgage Applications

The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended August 15th.

The Composite index gained 1.4% WoW, buttressed fully by refi activity, which was higher by 2.7%, while Purchase activity declined -0.4%. 

  • Lower Lows: Purchase demand declined for a 3rd consecutive week, sliding -0.4% to 164.1 on the index, down from 164.8 last week.  This marks the 6th consecutive week below the 170-level on the index – out “soft-ing” the February, weather distortion lows and the longest such streak since August of 1995.  Purchase demand is currently running -5.7% QoQ  and tracking at its lowest level since 2Q95. 
  • Refi & Rates:  Refinance activity increased +2.7% WoW with rates on the 30Y FRM contract declining a notable -6bps in the latest week to 4.29%.  Rates currently sit just north of the lowest level since May of last year while Refi activity remains down -31% YoY and continues to improve as we traverse through the easiest 2013 comps. 

 

Cash sales remain elevated and the regulation-catalyzed shift in the origination channel may be a challenge to intertemporal reliability and dampening reported demand as measured by the MBA survey, but the broader takeaway remains unchanged:

Multi-decade lows in purchase demand (modestly distorted or not) is not the stuff accelerating housing recoveries are made of.   We remain inclined to maintain our bearish on the housing complex until the slope of HPI deceleration inflects.

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Purchase Qtrly

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Purchase 4wk Rolling Ave

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Purchase LT w Summary Stats

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Composite LT w Summary Stats

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - Refi   Purchase YoY

DEMAND DROUGHT HITS 6-WEEKS - 30Y Rates

About MBA Mortgage Applications:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis. 

Frequency:

The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Christian B. Drake