The Hedgeye Daily Outlook

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 18, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 1.10% downside to 1950 and 0.27% upside to 1977.

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 1 macro risk ranges

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 2 etf levels

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 3 equity sentiment

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.96 from 1.98
  • VIX closed at 12.32 1 day percent change of -6.31%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

GOVERNMENT:

• Alaska holds primary to choose GOP Senate candidate; Wyoming also holds primary

• 2pm: Federal Open Market Cmte issues minutes from July 29-30 meeting

• U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Alaska Primary; National Party Fundraising

WHAT TO WATCH:

• Wal-Mart bid for Family Dollar said to be unlikely

• TPG Capital offers fee breaks to lure investors to $10b fund

• Standard Chartered said to approach N.Y. with controls deal

• Verizon regains title of fastest U.S. wireless from AT&T

• New Sprint CEO doubling data available for shared plans

• BofA’s Montag becomes sole COO; Darnell taking new role

• Owners of Vevo said to end effort to sell co.: New York Post

• Starbucks to send food trucks to college campuses: CNNMoney

• Microsoft’s cloud service Azure had 5-hour outage yday

• Solar demand surge means first panel shortage since 2006

• Visa sees Russia as priority market as govt prepares new rules

• Bank of China profit growth slows on bad-loan provisions

AM EARNINGS:

  • Home Depot (HD) 6am, $1.44 - Preview
  • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 6:59am, ($0.34)
  • Medtronic (MDT) 7:15am, $0.92 - Preview
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), 7:30am $0.65 - Preview
  • TJX Cos (TJX) 8:28am, $0.73 - Preview

PM EARNINGS:

  • Real Goods Solar (RGSE) 4:05pm, ($0.09)
  • La-Z-Boy (LZB) 4:10pm, $0.21
  • Photronics (PLAB) 4:30pm, $0.08
  • Youku Tudou (YOKU) 4:30pm, ($0.07)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

  • Default Shadow Ebbs in Commodity Trade Rebound: Corporate India
  • Greener Pastures Signaling U.S. Beef Supply Rebound: Commodities
  • Gold Rises in New York as Palladium Trades Near 13-Year High
  • Corn to Soybeans Fall on Prospects U.S. Rain Will Aid Production
  • Deckhands Paid Like Bankers Threaten Biggest Iron Ore Port
  • Aluminum Rises Most in Two Weeks Before U.S. Construction Report
  • BHP’s Metal Discards Poised to Become Biggest Mining Spinoff
  • MORE: CME Hires Ex-Morgan Stanley’s Zhang as Asia Metal Director
  • Western Australia Crop Growing Conditions Favorable: Rabobank
  • Ill-Disciplined Gold Miners Deal Industry Loss: Chart of the Day
  • Deal Success Has China Metal Miner Seeking More Overseas Targets
  • China Mills May Restock Iron Ore Over Next Two Weeks, ANZ Says
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: WTI Crude Rises Before Supply Data
  • Rain Relieving Thirsty Crops in China Complicates Glut Reduction

 

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 4 commodities

 

CURRENCIES


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 5 FX

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 6 global 1 day

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 7 global YTD

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 8 Europe

ASIAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 9 Asia

MIDDLE EAST

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 10 middle east

The Hedgeye Macro Team