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ANOTHER SOFT WEEK IN MACAU

August is tracking a little below last year month to date. Mass business under scrutiny.

 

 

THE DATA 

Last week’s Macau table revenues were HK$5,425 million (6 days) – an amount that has occurred frequently over the past 2 years.  However, we believe the number is close to actual.  On a per day basis, table revenues were slightly below the recent trend - averaging $904 million, down 9% from the comparable period last year.  Month to date average daily table revenues fell 4% from last year.  The early chatter indicates that VIP hold percentage may actually have been high last week, so volumes were potentially even more disappointing.  We expect full month August gross gaming revenues (GGR) to be slightly down YoY.

 

ANOTHER SOFT WEEK IN MACAU - 123

 

MASS COMMENTARY

Following July’s sharp deceleration in YoY Mass growth to +17% (in line with our Mass Decelerating call), all eyes are on this high margin segment.  While we continue to believe that YoY Mass growth will decelerate from 1H 2014, August should look a little better than July. However, we remain concerned with Premium Mass margins and a question from an analyst seemed to indicate that the business is getting more competitive.  Galaxy denied that they are more aggressive with Mass rebates but wouldn't deny that it is happening in the market. We highlighted this as a risk and noted that competitive pressure in Premium Mass may have been a factor in across the board disappointing Q2 margins. We're concerned.  

 

MARKET SHARES

The previously mentioned high market hold seems to be concentrated on Cotai.  We're hearing LVS and MPEL's City of Dreams held well thus far in August.  Indeed, both market shares increased relative to trend, with LVS up dramatically. Galaxy remains below recent trend thus far in August and we think it may be VIP volume related.  Remember that Galaxy's VIP share in Q2 jumped dramatically due to higher volumes so the comp is difficult.

 

ANOTHER SOFT WEEK IN MACAU - 2


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 18, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 1.10% downside to 1950 and 0.27% upside to 1977.

                                                                                                                               

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 1 macro risk ranges

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 2 etf levels

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 3 equity sentiment

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.96 from 1.98
  • VIX closed at 12.32 1 day percent change of -6.31%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

 

GOVERNMENT:

 

• Alaska holds primary to choose GOP Senate candidate; Wyoming also holds primary

• 2pm: Federal Open Market Cmte issues minutes from July 29-30 meeting

• U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Alaska Primary; National Party Fundraising

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

 

• Wal-Mart bid for Family Dollar said to be unlikely

• TPG Capital offers fee breaks to lure investors to $10b fund

• Standard Chartered said to approach N.Y. with controls deal

• Verizon regains title of fastest U.S. wireless from AT&T

• New Sprint CEO doubling data available for shared plans

• BofA’s Montag becomes sole COO; Darnell taking new role

• Owners of Vevo said to end effort to sell co.: New York Post

• Starbucks to send food trucks to college campuses: CNNMoney

• Microsoft’s cloud service Azure had 5-hour outage yday

• Solar demand surge means first panel shortage since 2006

• Visa sees Russia as priority market as govt prepares new rules

• Bank of China profit growth slows on bad-loan provisions

 

AM EARNINGS:

 

  • Home Depot (HD) 6am, $1.44 - Preview
  • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 6:59am, ($0.34)
  • Medtronic (MDT) 7:15am, $0.92 - Preview
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), 7:30am $0.65 - Preview
  • TJX Cos (TJX) 8:28am, $0.73 - Preview

 

PM EARNINGS:

 

  • Real Goods Solar (RGSE) 4:05pm, ($0.09)
  • La-Z-Boy (LZB) 4:10pm, $0.21
  • Photronics (PLAB) 4:30pm, $0.08
  • Youku Tudou (YOKU) 4:30pm, ($0.07)

                                                                                                                               

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

  • Default Shadow Ebbs in Commodity Trade Rebound: Corporate India
  • Greener Pastures Signaling U.S. Beef Supply Rebound: Commodities
  • Gold Rises in New York as Palladium Trades Near 13-Year High
  • Corn to Soybeans Fall on Prospects U.S. Rain Will Aid Production
  • Deckhands Paid Like Bankers Threaten Biggest Iron Ore Port
  • Aluminum Rises Most in Two Weeks Before U.S. Construction Report
  • BHP’s Metal Discards Poised to Become Biggest Mining Spinoff
  • MORE: CME Hires Ex-Morgan Stanley’s Zhang as Asia Metal Director
  • Western Australia Crop Growing Conditions Favorable: Rabobank
  • Ill-Disciplined Gold Miners Deal Industry Loss: Chart of the Day
  • Deal Success Has China Metal Miner Seeking More Overseas Targets
  • China Mills May Restock Iron Ore Over Next Two Weeks, ANZ Says
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: WTI Crude Rises Before Supply Data
  • Rain Relieving Thirsty Crops in China Complicates Glut Reduction

 

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 4 commodities

 

CURRENCIES


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 5 FX

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 6 global 1 day

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 7 global YTD

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 8 Europe

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 9 Asia

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 10 middle east

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Long-Wave Rope

This note was originally published at 8am on August 05, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“When we hang the capitalists, they will sell us the rope.”

-Joseph Stalin

 

That wasn’t a very nice thing to say. But Stalin wasn’t nice; especially to economists! “In 1930, Stalin arrested Nikolai Kondratieff and shipped him off to Siberia. His crime: daring to defy the most linear of ideologies – Marxism – by suggesting that the long-term performance of market economies is cyclical.” (The Fourth Turning, pg 110)

 

Kondratieff died in the gulag, but his “long wave” cycles will live on for as long as gravity does (let’s hope someone isn’t empowered to centrally plan that away!). For longer-term risk managers, they are also called super-cycles (45-50 years). They are a tad longer than the monthly performance chasing thing you see your peers wrestling with in an oversupplied asset management industry today.

 

If you aren’t into the 45-50 year thing, how about 20-25 years? This is what demographer and economic historian Neil Howe calls a “turning” within your saeculum (lifetime). Like the Four Seasons, there are roughly four turnings in your life. I had a Real Conversation @HedgeyeTV with Neil about this recently that you can watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6vYv9O0dEM

 

Long-Wave Rope - EL chart 2 

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Now if you don’t want to think about a long-term US economic cycle (which is 62 months into an expansion) rolling over, you can always ditch the 25 yr demographic reading for a 50-day moving monkey (chart). When those break, oh baby do the emotions kick in!

 

Obviously, using a 1-factor point-and-click model that my 4 year old daughter could figure out isn’t a multi-duration, multi-factor, interconnected Global Macro risk management process, so let’s move on…

 

What I wake up trying to do every morning is identify the intermediate-term-cycles within longer-term ones. Trust me, I don’t read a non-fiction book every 10-days for kicks and giggles. I do it in order to make myself less dumb. And that’s not an easy thing to do!

 

Not to be confused with an economic cycle, when considering the shorter-term market cycle within the “long-wave”, a really basic 3-factor model I use is:

 

  1. PRICE
  2. VOLUME
  3. VOLATILITY

 

Therefore, if I am looking at something like the Russell 2000 (IWM)

 

  1. PRICE – is -7.0% in the last 2 months and below my intermediate-term TREND resistance line of 1175
  2. VOLUME – accelerates on the DOWN days and decelerates on the UP ones (yesterday’s was -18% vs its 3 mth avg)
  3. VOLATILITY – is breaking out on the front-month, undergoing what we call a bearish to bullish phase transition

 

And if I want to be long the upside down of that #GrowthSlowing message (long the Long Bond):

 

  1. US Treasury 10yr Yield of 2.49% this morning remains well below my intermediate-term TREND level of 2.81%
  2. Fund Flows have turned back to bullish on the “safe” side of Fixed Income (after being bearish in 2013)
  3. Implied volatility in being long TLT (+12.5% YTD) vs Russell 2000 (IWM) -3.4% YTD is as low-stress as it gets

 

If you want a proverbial rope to hang yourself with in this game, start calling your best performing long ideas (on a lag) “low-stress.” Before you know it, you’ll be having a nervous breakdown.

 

One thing that starts to stress me out is being bullish on something macro that the crowd starts to dog pile (50-day moving avg is intact, bro!). So one place I watch very closely on that sentiment score is futures and options positioning.

 

Yesterday I wrote about how there was a net SHORT position of -41,210 contracts SP500 (SPX Index + Emini) that consensus short sellers (those who cover high and short low) built into Friday’s close being a catalyst for a bullish no-volume “bounce.”

 

We got that. But how about in the things I like (like Gold, Pounds, and Bonds)?

 

  1. Gold = net LONG position of +122,092 contracts (vs. its 6 month avg of +100,747)
  2. British Pound = net LONG position of +31,046 contracts (vs. its 6 month avg of +34,681)
  3. UST 10yr = net LONG position of +7,090 contracts (vs. its 6 month avg of -40,094)

 

In other words, Consensus Macro is:

 

  1. Too long Gold (after it’s up +7.4% YTD) so I should sell some
  2. Too bullish on what’s been the best major FX position vs USD for the last year, but not wacky bullish
  3. No longer short, but not yet Bullish Enough on longer-term UST Bonds

 

So, provided that our longer-wave economic cycle call is giving us confirming evidence (both sequential data and market prices), we just say “buy more” long-term bonds on all pullbacks to @Hedgeye TRADE and TREND lines of support.

 

As far as the history of socialists vs. capitalists is concerned, Stalin’s followers can eat their own ropes. One of the few things I agree with him saying is that “print is the sharpest and strongest weapon of our party.” That’s why I like to print our #process, every day.

 

Our Immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.43-2.54%

SPX 1916-1960

RUT 1109-1139

VIX 13.84-17.82

Pound 1.68-1.70

Gold 1281-1303

 

Best of luck out there today (and Happy Anniversary, Laura),

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Long-Wave Rope - Chart of the Day


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Italy, Commodities and the Russell 2000

Client Talking Points

ITALY

The first major European Equity market to snap my 21,311 (MIB Index) TREND line in June is the first to roll over at lower-highs this morning – in Real-Time Alerts I haven’t signaled re-short Italy, France, and Portugal (yet) but if they fail here, that call is coming.

Commodities

Best consumption news of the last month is deflating what was our #InflationAccelerating call from JAN-JUN; CRB Index is now only +3% YTD and bearish TREND (295 resistance); only commodity I like long side right here is Gold w/ upside to $1321 resistance

Russell 2000

It’s now only -0.5% YTD so everything is fixed, right? Sell it. Consensus hedge funds shorting the lows and covering the highs is providing for quite the year of fading beta. Sell the high end of my risk range and cover the low (1115-1161); stay with the process 

Asset Allocation

CASH 54% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 12% COMMODITIES 6%
FIXED INCOME 24% INTL CURRENCIES 4%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
HOLX

Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration.  The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month.  Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements.  When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner.  With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.

BOBE

The level of activism in the restaurant industry has never been more rampant.  In the past year alone, we’ve seen CBRL, DAVE, DRI, BJRI and BOBE attract largely uninvited attention from these investors. BOBE has a long history of mismanagement, evidenced by flawed strategic rationale, an excessively bloated cost structure and severe underperformance relative to peers.  Fortunately, its poor operating performance presents a tremendous opportunity. We believe activist investor Sandell has identified significant, largely feasible, opportunities to enhance shareholder value.  Particularly, we see tremendous upside value in selling the foods business, transitioning to an asset light model and refocusing capital allocation.

 

TLT

Fixed income continues to be our favorite asset class, so it should come as no surprise to see us rotate into the Shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) on the long side. In conjunction with our #Q3Slowing macro theme, we think the slope of domestic economic growth is poised to roll over here in the third quarter. In the context of what may be flat-to-decelerating reported inflation, we think the performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities may actually be set to widen over the next two to three months. This view remains counter to consensus expectations, which is additive to our already-high conviction level in this position.  Fade consensus on bonds – especially as growth slows. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

“ASIA: another strong session for stocks - China and India remain two that we like, long side” -- @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Success is liking yourself, liking what you do, and liking how you do it. -- Maya Angelou

STAT OF THE DAY

65, The number of yards Cleveland Browns’ quarterback Johnny Manziel threw for in last night’s highly anticipated preseason NFL game against the Washington Redskins.


August 19, 2014

August 19, 2014 - 1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

August 19, 2014 - Slide6 

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CHART OF THE DAY: Painful Market Moves Happen Hombre $DJIA

CHART OF THE DAY: Painful Market Moves Happen Hombre $DJIA - Chart of the Day

 

Q: How many US equity only PMs live in fear of missing the last 3% of a 5 year rally in the US stock market? A: lots



Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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