CHART OF THE DAY: Hedgeye Housing Compendium, Not Pretty

CHART OF THE DAY: Hedgeye Housing Compendium, Not Pretty - Compendium 081314


In today's Chart of the Day, we highlight a table from our housing team summarizing recent data points in housing.  Of the 22 housing data points we track regularly, 18 of them are worse in the most recent period.

The Gambler

“You’ve got to know when to hold’em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run.

You never count your money when your sittin’ at the table,

There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.”

-Kenny Rogers


It is hard to believe it, but the song “The Gambler," written by Don Schlitz and recorded by the legend Kenny Rogers is almost 36 years old.  Some songs, poems, and books transcend time and this is certainly one of them.


In many ways, the song is also apropos for stock market operators like ourselves.  Certainly, we don’t tell our clients that we are gambling, but some days it does feel like we are at the casino.  And some days certain stock market operators go on unbelievable runs that seem to belie even the best of odds.


The Gambler - gambler


Take my colleague Howard Penney for example.  Yesterday he introduced another Best Idea, which was to short HAIN.  (If you’d like learn how to get access to his 70 page deck on the name, please email .)


To say Howard has had a hot “hand” would be an understatement to say the least.  His last five short ideas have had great returns on an absolute basis and versus the market.  They are as follows:


  • Del Frisco – DFRG ~+20% (still live)
  • Annie’s Inc – BNNY ~+22% (still live)
  • Potbelly – PBPB ~+56% (still live)
  • Panera – PNRA ~+10% (closed)
  • Bloomin Brands – BLMN - ~+21% (closed)


So as it relates to the restaurant and consumer staples sectors, you can gamble or if you are going to go to the stock market casino you can listen to Penney and improve your odds versus the house.


Back to the Global Macro Grind...


Speaking of casinos and gambling, former Reagan budget director David Stockman recently had a great quote saying the markets were like a branch casino of the central bank.  According to Stockman:


“The Fed has destroyed the money market. It has destroyed the capital markets. They have something that you can see on the screen called an "interest rate." That isn't a market price of money or a market price of five-year debt capital. That is an administered price that the Fed has set and that every trader watches by the minute to make sure that he's still in a positive spread. And you can't have capitalism if the capital markets are dead, if the capital markets are simply a branch office – branch casino – of the central bank. That's essentially what we have today.”


Now, casinos are great when the odds are lined up in your favor, but when the odds shift or are not aligned with your bets, it doesn’t matter how many red bulls and vodka you drink, the casino is a very frustrating place to spend the evening.


This morning, by and large, the ball has landed on green across the global markets.  This comes despite, particularly in Europe, some fairly despondent growth data points over the last couple of weeks.  


On the good news front, the U.K. continues to outperform as evidenced by its GDP report last night.  On a year-over-year basis, GDP in the U.K. expanded by +3.2% and was up +0.8% sequentially. Interestingly, U.K. policy makers seem to get that a strong currency helps.  Even the manic media is getting the point, as Reuters wrote this morning:

The strong Pound policy from Carney seems to be a tailwind for the U.K. economy.”  (Note that we bought the British Pound (via the etf FXB) on 8/13 in our Real-Time alert products.)


Hopefully, Dr. Yellen gets the memo!  


Ironically, Dr. Yellen and her colleagues will actually have decent cover to become incrementally dovish (read: push out the dots) given the anemic situation in the U.S. housing market.  In the Chart of the Day today, we’ve included a table from our housing team that summarizes the recent data points in housing.  Of the 22 housing data points we track regularly, 18 of them are worse in the most recent period.


As my colleague Christian Drake wrote yesterday:


“The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended August 8th.


The Composite index fell -2.7% WoW as refi activity was weaker by -4.0% on the week and purchase demand slid -1.0% sequentially.


The anemia extends to August as purchase apps hold the 160 level for a 5th consecutive week and are now running -5.3% QoQ and at the lowest quarterly ave reading since 2Q 1995.  


  • Lower Lows in Purchase Demand:  The Purchase Index slid yet again to 164.8 on the index, down from 166.5 last week - marking a second week of decline and the 5th consecutive week at the 160-level.  As it stands, purchase demand continues to sit just above the 10Y lows recorded during the peak weather distortion trough in February while average purchase demand for 3Q to-date is currently tracking at its lowest level since 2Q of 1995.  
  • Refi & Rates:  Refinance activity declined -4% WoW with rates on the 30Y FRM contract static at 4.35% in the latest week.  Refi activity remains down -38.4% YoY and continues to improve as we traverse through the easiest 2013 comps. 

Summarily, the high frequency housing data continues to corroborate the sea of red currently blanketing our housing compendium.  As we’ve highlighted repeatedly, we’re inclined to remain bearish on the housing complex until the slope of HPI deceleration inflects.”


Not surprisingly then, we recently shorted Toll Brothers (TOL) in our real-time alert products.  There is nothing like fundamentals to put the odds on your favor!


Good “luck” out there today.


Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:


UST 10yr Yield 2.38-2.48% 

SPX 1 

DAX 8 

VIX 11.84-14.99 

Pound 1.66-1.68 

Gold 1 


Keep your head up and stick on the ice,


Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research


The Gambler - Compendium 081314

Retail Callouts (8/15): JCP, M, KSS, JWN, TGT

Takeaway: Department store SIGMAs are surprisingly good this week. But KSS should turn the other way. JWN is the worst we’ve seen in a decade.



Department Store Earnings


The big takeaway for this week is the comparative SIGMA trends for the department store group. As a reminder, the analysis triangulates sales, inventories and margins. The vertical axis is the spread between sales and inventories -- the higher on the scale, the better.  The horizontal axis is the y/y change in EBIT margin. In effect, you want to be either in the upper right hand quadrant, or headed there. The opposite holds true for the lower left.


The major takeaway for the group is that 3 of the 4 department stores are on a sequentially improving SIGMA trajectory. It's been years since we've seen this happen. Clearly, JCP is the big winner, and that's no surprise. But Macy's popped into Quadrant 1, which is notable, and even KSS showed some improvement on the margin. That said, it's worth noting that this is the 11th consecutive quarter where KSS has been unable to grow sales faster than inventory. Margins were positive this quarter due to SG&A cuts. That's finite. Gross Margins are in trouble.


JWN comes out as the biggest loser. It was already in Quadrant 3 - the worst place you can be -- for two quarters in a row. But this time not only did margins fall, but inventories were up 23%, and the company really did not have a good reason as to why. This is the worst inventory positioning for JWN in at least a decade. If there's a good reason to own JWN, we definitely don't see it. Numbers appear to be at risk.

Retail Callouts (8/15): JCP, M, KSS, JWN, TGT - chart1 8 15 




TGT - Target CEO Brian Cornell Discusses Personalization



  • "Brian Cornell, Target Corp.’s new chief executive officer, on Wednesday held a town hall event at the retailer’s Minneapolis headquarters, his first meeting with company employees. Showing that he’s a leader for the future, Cornell and Target used Twitter as the platform of choice to communicate his message."
  • "'All of us need to be students of the consumer,' Cornell was quoted as saying on Target’s Twitter account. 'We need to be quick, we need to be decisive, we need to be agile.' He went on, 'We need to move forward with speed. To me, leadership is about surrounding yourself with a great team.'"


SVU - Potential Data Breach Revealed by Supervalu



  • "The grocery chain Supervalu said Friday that it may have suffered a data breach at stores in as many as five states."
  • "Hackers accessed a network that processes store transactions. Account numbers, expiration dates, cardholders' names and other information may have been stolen, the company said."
  • "Grocery stores — as well as some stand-alone liquor shops — in Minnesota, Virginia, Illinois, Maryland and Missouri may have been affected between June 22 and July 17."
  • "The cards from which data may have been stolen were used at 180 Supervalu stores and liquor stores run under the Cub Foods, Farm Fresh, Hornbacher's, Shop 'n Save and Shoppers Food & Pharmacy names. Data may also have been stolen from 29 franchised Cub Foods stores and liquor stores."


WMT - Wal-Mart Sees Disney Orders Jump, Benefiting From Amazon Dispute



  • "Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s online division began offering discounted pre-orders on Walt Disney Co. DVDs this week, a move that capitalizes on a feud between Disney and Inc."
  • "Pre-orders of Disney movies such as “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” and “Maleficent” are available at for 40 percent off, Dan Toporek, a spokesman for the company, said in an e-mail. The deal helped boost “Captain America” orders by 90 percent, while sales of other Disney titles rose 40 percent, Wal-Mart said."


ZQK - Quiksilver unveils Boardshorts made from recycled fibres



  • "Quiksilver has launched its newly designed AG47 collection of Boardshorts, made from recycled fibres. Each Boardshort is made from approximately 11 plastic bottles. These fibres brand named Repreve are recycled from materials like plastic bottles, etc by Unifi, a leader in recycling fibre."


DG - Dollar General adds Paula Price to BoD’s audit committee



  • "Dollar General Corporation announced the appointment of Paula A. Price, Senior Lecturer at Harvard Business School, to its board of directors effective August 26, 2014."


APP - American Apparel adds Laura Lee to BoD



  • "American Apparel, Inc. announced the appointment of Laura A. Lee to the company's board of directors."
  • "Laura brings a deep understanding of the internet space and digital launch initiatives, combined with a strong background in major brand building and key partnership development, to the American Apparel board," said Colleen Brown, nominating and governance board chair.


WAG - Walgreens set to change operational structure



  • "Following Walgreens' announcement last week about taking the next step in acquiring Alliance Boots, Alex Gourlay, EVP Walgreens Boots Alliance and president of Walgreens, announced changes in the company's operational organization structure in a letter to Walgreens employees."
  • "Mark Wagner, currently president of community management and store operations, will take on a new role as president of business operations."
  • "Brad Fluegel, currently SVP and chief strategy officer, will become SVP chief strategy and business development officer."
  • "Richard Ashworth will be returning from Alliance Boots in a new role as president of retail and pharmacy operations."


SHOO - Steve Madden Acquires Dolce Vita for $60.3M



  • "Steve Madden LTD. is on an acquisition spree, and planning on more deals ahead."
  • "The footwear and accessories firm’s newest baby is Dolce Vita Holdings Inc., which it acquired for $60.3 million in cash, subject to a working capital adjustment and an earn-out provision based on future financial performance."

real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Rates of Change

This note was originally published at 8am on August 01, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“The future is not a point – a single scenario that we must predict. It is a range.”

-Chip & Dan Heath


In Chapter 10 of Decisive, “Prepare To Be Wrong”, the Heath boys nail it with that risk management thought. Translating it into Hedgeye-speak: market tops and bottoms are processes, not points.


Price, volume, and volatility are all dynamic but measurable beasts. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to be able to visualize their patterns. All you need is a process to score them. It’s rarely an absolute price level that matters – it’s almost always about its rate of change.


Measuring rate of change (slope of the line) won’t help you much unless you contextualize it across multiple durations. We strongly advise that you stand outside your western academic confirmation biases and consider rates of change across multiple factors as well.


Rates of Change - 78


Back to the Global Macro Grind


Multi-factor, multi-duration macro. Yep. That’s how we roll. And after a +64% rip in front-month US stock market volatility (since July 7th) we’re not only going to stick with that process this morning, but also remind you that it’s not Q2. It’s Q3.


They can blame Argentina or my cousin’s neighbor’s brother for yesterday’s levered-long-beta-belly-flop in US Equities (worst down day of the year), but they can’t change that the USA’s PMI print got powdered (rate of change) down to 52.6 in JULY vs 62.6 in JUNE.


They may very well have built inventories into the USA growth-hope narrative in Q2, but in Q3 the PMI (purchasing manager index) looks almost identical to the Industrial Stocks (XLI). Since US Equity volatility bottomed late June, early July:


  1. Industrials (XLI) are down -7.2%
  2. And the Russell 2000 (IWM) is down, well, -7.2%


Forget our #VolatilityAsymmetry Q3 Macro Theme. How symmetric is that?


More importantly, who gets what it’s been signaling? Who is writing about an early-cycle slowdown? These rates of change didn’t start yesterday. Depending on which factor in the US economy you have been measuring, they have been in motion now for 7 months!


What are the early-cycle slowdown sectors of the US stock market?


  1. Housing (ITB)
  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
  3. Industrials (XLI)


All three of these early-cycle sectors are down now for 2014.


“So”, if god called you and said ‘hey, here’s my survey of the US economy’:


  1. Long-term Bond Yields are down -15% YTD (10yr UST Yield)
  2. The Russell 2000 is down -3.7% YTD… and
  3. Housing (ITB) is down -10.5% YTD


What would you say back if you were bullish on something like +3-4% US GDP growth? I think Bill Ackman would say, “my bad.”


I’m not trying to be snarky about this. I’m actually trying to drive my Scottish-Canadian flag right into the front-line of this ongoing culture war I’ve been fighting vs. #OldWall since we started the firm in 2008. You know, and wiggle the Braveheart kilt at them.


Let’s have some bull/bear battles already. At some point, someone out there in Consensus Macro land needs to man-up and just say ‘hey, I’ve missed calling every early-cycle slowdown since 1999, and I’m tired of this Canadian-mutt doing the rate of change thing.’


Now many would argue that consensus economists and strategists in Washington and on Wall Street would rather all be wrong together than wrong all on their own (#JobSecurity). But I think our profession is better than that.


I’m betting someone who is a lot smarter than me is going to change what they are doing and fight me, Red-White-And-Blue style! In every profession in America, there’s always been a progressive rate of change in that too.


Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:


UST 10yr Yield 2.43-2.59%

SPX 1924-1965

RUT 1111-1145

DAX 9206-9613

VIX 13.12-17.91

Brent Oil 105.54-108.79

Gold 1271-1305


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Rates of Change - Chart of the Day


"I believe in focusing on what you do best, instead of a lot of things." -Irwin Simon CEO HAIN


We recently added HAIN to the Hedgeye best Ideas list as a SHORT. 


Irwin Simon was quoted saying the above quote at the time he bought Celestial Seasonings.  Given HAIN has acquired 33 companies over the ten years I’m not sure the old management style still applies.


Yesterday we published a 70 page slide deck outlining our thesis on HAIN (if you would like a copy please email me.)  The thesis centers on three key points:


ACQUISITION FATIGUE - HAIN has been a serial acquirer over the past ten years, acquiring over 33 companies. Although the company owns 50 brands, the 80/20 rule applies. Management is compensated to grow revenues and earnings, incentivizing them to acquire complementary companies. Not all the companies they buy, however, are complementary including a few recent ones that have been margin dilutive. We believe the core-business, ex-acquisitions, is slowing – a fact that management is doing their best to mask.


INCREASING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE -April 10, 2014, the day WMT announced it would carry Wild Oats, was the day organic food went mainstream. This move by WMT won’t be ignored by other retailers and will likely force gross margins lower for a number of organic companies. The current pricing umbrella in the organic space will create significant demand for private label products at traditional grocery chains. Can HAIN sustain its current business model in light of the new industry headwinds?


SLOWING TRENDS, MARGIN PRESSURE - HAIN’s absolute gross margins are significantly below its peer group, making it difficult for the company to compete in a more competitive marketplace. The increased competitive headwinds will slow organic growth and keep pressure on gross margins, forcing the company to cut SG&A at a faster rate than anticipated. This increases the likelihood that street expectations are too aggressive. Under such a scenario, the company’s multiple would likely contract.


The last bullet point is critical.  At 26%, HIAN’s gross margins are below a typically strong organic company and put the company in a difficult spot to defend against increased competition.  As we said on page 55 of the slide deck the following are the characteristics of a strong organic company:

  • Notable competitive advantage; highly differentiated product giving the company a strong reason to be in the market.
  • Sustainable gross margin, typically above 40%, which allows the company to reinvest in its brands.
  • Resonates with consumers and helps engender loyalty.
  • Validation across multiple channels.





In addition, HAIN has significantly cut SG&A to levels that are also below its competitors’ making it difficult to support the business.




This has resulted in a significant improvement in operating margins.




How long can management rely on SG&A cuts to make the numbers?

Are they underinvesting in many of their brands?


We believe there will come a time when management must reinvest in their business and will be hard pressed to lever SG&A to the same degree.


If you would like to discuss HAIN further please call any time.


Howard Penney

Managing Director


Fred Masotta





TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 15, 2014

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 54 points or 2.52% downside to 1906 and 0.25% upside to 1960.                     













  • YIELD CURVE: 1.98 from 1.99
  • VIX closed at 12.42 1 day percent change of -3.72%


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):     

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Aug., est. 20 (prior 25.6)
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, July, est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
  • 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, June (prior $19.4b)
  • 9:15am: Ind. Production m/m, July, est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9:55am: UofMich Confidence, Aug. prelim, est. 82.5 (pr 81.8)
  • 10:45am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Brainerd, Minn.
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count



    • Senate, House on Aug. recess; President Obama on vacation on Martha’s Vineyard
    • 2pm: Foreign Policy Initiative conf. call on “Iraq in Turmoil,” with Michael Pregent, adjunct lecturer, Natl Defense University’s College of Intl Security Affairs
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Hawaii Primary Timeline in Flux; Debates


WHAT TO WATCH:          

  • Coca-Cola to gain Monster Beverage stake in $2.15b deal
  • Berkshire redoes pay-TV bets with Charter stake, less DirecTV
  • Billionaire Paulson keeps stake in world’s biggest gold ETP
  • Icahn takes new activist position in Gannett, backs split plan
  • John Paulson bets on Allergan, takes 5.6m shr stake
  • J.C. Penney’s loss narrows as return to roots boosts sales
  • Supervalu says hackers may have stolen U.S. shoppers’ card data
  • Citigroup, JPM, others report July credit-card delinquencies
  • ZF talks to buy TRW Automotive said to hinge on Bosch JV exit
  • Chiquita sticks to Fyffes deal as Cutrale-Safra offer rejected
  • Applied Materials forecasts sales that may top analyst ests.
  • BlackBerry shipments rise from prior quarter under Chen’s watch
  • GM plans top-range Cadillac car, redesigned SRX for next year
  • Maliki resigns as Iraqi prime minister to make way for Abadi
  • U.K. keeps momentum in second quarter with 0.8% GDP growth
  • BOJ officials said to mull cutting growth forecast for 2014
  • Hong Kong cuts 2014 growth target after unexpected contraction
  • BHP eyes Billiton assets split to focus on iron ore to coal
  • Impala Platinum sees profit falling as much as 75% after strike
  • Ackman’s Pershing Square sues U.S. over Fannie, Freddie bailout
  • Samsung buys startup SmartThings to move into smart homes
  • U.S. video-game industry sales rise 16% on console spending
  • Ebola outbreak in W. Africa worse than cases suggest, WHO says
  • Jackson Hole, Yellen, Draghi, Fed Minutes: Wk Ahead Aug. 16-23



    • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.55



  • Billionaire Paulson Keeps Stake in Top Gold Fund as Price Climbs
  • WTI Oil Set for Weekly Loss With Brent on Weaker Demand Outlook
  • Brazil Turns Aluminum Importer as Power Costs Surge: Commodities
  • Copper Rises Before U.S. Factory Output Data as Stockpiles Drop
  • London Silver Price Set at $19.86 an Ounce on First Day
  • Soybeans Drop as Rain Seen Helping Crop; Corn Climbs With Wheat
  • ABN Amro Adds Heads of Metals, Energy to Asia Commodities Team
  • Panama Says a $5.3 Billion Canal Expansion May Not Be Big Enough
  • Libyan Gas Flows to Italy Climb as Russian Supplies Threatened
  • Traders Lured to Bet on Power Overloads Worth Billions: Energy
  • Oil Sands Profits Most at Risk From Falling Crude Price: Study
  • BHP Eyes Billiton Assets Split to Focus on Iron Ore to Coal
  • Copper Traders Bearish on Slowing Economies to Demand Weakness
  • HSBC, Mitsui, ScotiaMocatta to Participate in New Silver Price


























The Hedgeye Macro Team