CLIENT TALKING POINTS
INDIA
BSE Sensex up another +0.8% overnight to +23.3% year-to-date, leading what was a low volatility session for Eastern Equities. We did a full day in Boston yesterday and the bull case for Indian stocks remains under-owned (India passing public REIT legislation this morning too).
DAX
The DAX fails at its first line of resistance (@Hedgeye TRADE resistance of 9232) and has no support to 8848 – this morning’s ZEW reading was one of the worst sequential #GrowthSlowing data points (in the world) of the year – Putin will enjoy that.
OIL
What Vlad (Putin) won’t enjoy is that both Brent and WTI continue to breakdown (both are undergoing bullish-to-bearish TREND reversals @Hedgeye). WTI is down -0.7% this morning vs Gold and Copper in the green (metals continue to diverge bullishly vs Energy commodities).
TOP LONG IDEAS
HOLX
Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration. The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month. Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements. When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner. With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.
OC
Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery. A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating. Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms. As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.
LM
Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | 46% | US EQUITIES | 0% | |
| INTL EQUITIES | 14% | COMMODITIES | 6% | |
| FIXED INCOME | 26% | INTL CURRENCIES | 8% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
EUROPE: every major European Equity market just failed @Hedgeye TRADE lines of resistance (again)
@KeithMcCullough
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Nobody's a natural. You work hard to get good and then work to get better. It's hard to stay on top.
-Paul Coffey
STAT OF THE DAY
Consumption trends in the natural channel remain very strong, growing at approximately 9% in the quarter. Organic wheat prices remain at historically high levels, up around 40%.
