Full month GGR projected to be flat to slightly up.
Flattish growth in average daily table revenues (ADTR) is in line with our expectations. We would note that the ADTR of the first 11 days summed to HK$10,075 million, EXACTLY the total of the first 11 days of last year. Table revenues averaged HK$916 million per day through the first 11 days of August – flat with the comparable period last year but up seasonally from July’s weak ADTR.
Sources indicate that Mass revenues are trending in the low-mid 20s mtd and our full month projection stands at 22% mass growth. The VIP picture remains cloudy with volumes down significantly on normal hold. For the full month of August, we are projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of flat to slightly positive.
Our sources confirm the competitive pressures on the premium mass market remains a risk going forward, particularly with the Mass slowdown. While our Mass Decelerating theme, first espoused in June, remains intact, August's likely Mass bounce back should be judged more on the weakness in July rather than a reversal of trend. We expect high mid to high teens YoY Mass growth beyond August.
For the concessionaires, LVS leads the way with high VIP hold driving market share well above recent trend, completely at the expense of SJM. All other operators are at slightly above trend shares. LVS has consistently been lucky this year while MPEL has been much less fortunate in the past 6 months. CoD is holding poorly again in August on lower volumes we think.
