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Investment Ideas

The table below lists our Investment Ideas as well as our Watch List -- a list of potential ideas that we are in the process of evaluating.  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart1

Recent Notes

07/28/14 Monday Mashup: MCD, YUM and More

07/28/14 MCD: McLibel 2.0?

07/29/14 DRI: Light Gets In

07/31/14 YUM: Warning Shots Fired

Events This Week

Monday, August 4th

  • KONA earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • JMBA earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • TXRH earnings call 5:00pm EST

Tuesday, August 5th

  • TAST earnings call 8:30am EST
  • BLMN earnings call 9:00am EST
  • ARCO earnings call 10:00am EST
  • DAVE earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • FRGI earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • PBPB earnings call 5:00pm EST
  • CHUY earnings call 5:00pm EST

Wednesday, August 6th

  • PZZA earnings call 10:00am EST
  • THI earnings call 2:30pm EST
  • GMCR earnings call 5:00pm EST

Thursday, August 7th

  • WEN earnings call 9:00am EST
  • EAT earnings call 10:00am EST
  • JACK earnings call 11:30am EST
  • IRG earnings call 5:00pm EST

Friday, August 8th

  • MCD July sales and revenue release

Chart of the Day

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - 2

Recent News Flow

Monday, July 28th

  • JMBA announced an expansive franchise recruiting campaign in key markets where they plan to accelerate growth, including Atlanta, Miami, Dallas and specific East Coast markets.
  • RRGB is celebrating its 500th new restaurant opening on Monday, August 4th when it opens in Milpitas, CA at the Great Mall of the Bay Area.
  • DRI completed its sale of Red Lobster to Golden Gate Capital.
  • PZZA announced it is celebrating the summer barbecue with its new Spicy Pulled Pork Pizza.
  • DAVE elected David Mastrocola as Chairman of the Board of Directors.  Mastrocola currently serves as Co-Founder and Advisory Chairman of Pleasant Lake Partners, LLC and previously served as a partner and Managing Director of Goldman Sachs.

Tuesday, July 29th

  • CAKE celebrated National Cheesecake Day by offering any slice for half price.

Wednesday, July 30th

  • No significant news.

Thursday, July 31st

  • BWLD was upgraded to buy at Sterne Agee with a $176 PT.
  • DRI announced a $500m accelerated buyback through Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.  A portion of the proceeds from the Red Lobster sale will be used to fund this.
  • BAGL announced a quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share.
  • WEN announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share.

Friday, August 1st

  • PZZA increased its quarterly dividend to $0.14, up from $0.125.
  • CAKE opened a Cheesecake Factory restaurant in Reno, NV.
  • BOBE management and the board refuted Sandell's proposals in a recent company presentation, calling the activist's suggestions "shortsighted."

Sector Performance

The XLY (-1.8%) outperformed the SPX (-2.7%).  On average, casual dining stocks (-2.9%) underperformed and quick service stocks (-1.7%) outperformed the XLY Index.

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart3

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart4

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative perspective, the sector turned bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart5

Casual Dining Restaurants

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart6

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart7

Quick Service Restaurants

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart8

Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings - chart9

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Fred Masotta

Analyst