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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 31, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or 0.51% downside to 1960 and 0.40% upside to 1978.                                                     

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.00 from 2.00
  • VIX closed at 13.33 1 day percent change of 0.38%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts y/y, July (prior -20.2%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Aug. (prior 50.5)
  • 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, 2Q, est. 0.5% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, July 26, est. 300k (284k)
  • 9:00am: ISM Milwaukee, July, est. 61 (prior 60.57)
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, July, est. 63 (prior 62.6)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 27 (prior 37.6)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama at HUD, hosts celebration for Special Olympics
    • Rep. Eric Cantor’s last day as House majority leader
    • Sec. of State John Kerry in New Delhi for strategic dialogue
    • 10am: RNC Chairman Reince Priebus at Natl Assn of Black Journalists convention in Boston
    • 10am: Center for Global Development energy price discussion w/IMF’s Lagarde, World Resources Institute’s Steer
    • 10am: Senate Banking Cmte student financial products hearing
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Big Money From Small Donor Base; Ernst & Oil

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • BNP Paribas posts record $5.8b 2Q loss after U.S. fine
  • Argentina declared in default by S&P as negotiations fail
  • Shell beats estimates amid $1.9b writedown on U.S. gas
  • Sony posts surprise profit on PlayStation, Hollywood movies
  • BlueCrest said to urge RadioShack to repay secured creditors
  • Apple said to cut ~200 jobs at Beats following acquisition
  • Suncor profit shrinks on costs of scaling back Joslyn project
  • Microsoft names former wireless executive Stanton to board
  • Ex-Goldman Vice Chair Evans joins Thornton on Barrick’s board
  • Target chooses PepsiCo executive as its next CEO: WSJ
  • Euro-area inflation unexpectedly slows to lowest since 2009
  • Adidas cuts profit forecast and 2015 targets on Russia, golf
  • Siemens profit beats estimates as revamp starts to pay off
  • Volkswagen confirms forecast, 2Q profit, rev. in line
  • Sanofi 2Q sales, EPS beat ests.; raises 2014 EPS forecast
  • Meda agrees to buy Rottapharm in $3.1b cash, stock deal
  • BofA raises cash portion in toxic-mortgage settlement: NYT
  • E.W. Scripps, Journal Communications to merge, spin off papers
  • Blackstone to invest as much as $800m in Tamarind Energy: WSJ
  • EU court orders Russia to pay EU1.87b for Yukos seizure
  • J&J planning voluntary recall of morcellators: WSJ
  • Treasury’s Financial Stability Oversight Council meets
  • U.S. House of Representatives votes on border plan
  • Israel calls more reservists as UN condemns attack on shelter

AM EARNS:

    • 3D Systems (DDD) 8am, $0.18 - Preview
    • Apache (APA) 8am, $1.64 - Preview
    • Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 7:30am, $0.63
    • Avon Products (AVP) 7:01am, $0.21 - Preview
    • Ball (BLL) 6am, $1.02
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.61 - Preview
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.67
    • BGC Partners (BGCP) 8am, $0.13
    • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) 6am, $0.09 - Preview
    • BorgWarner (BWA) 8am, $0.87
    • Bunge (BG) 6:30am, $1.37 - Preview
    • Cameco (CCO CN) 8:31am, C$0.16 - Preview
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) 8am, $0.29 - Preview
    • Cigna (CI) 6am, $1.84
    • CME Group (CME) 7am, $0.79
    • Colgate-Palmolive (CL) 7am, $0.73 - Preview
    • CommScope (COMM) 7am, $0.65
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) 7am, $1.61 - Preview
    • Delphi Automotive (DLPH) 7am, $1.33
    • Dentsply Intl (XRAY) 7am, $0.68
    • DirecTV (DTV) 7:30am, $1.53 - Preview
    • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.97
    • Endo International (ENDP) 6:32am, $0.89
    • Enterprise Products (EPD) 6am, $0.75
    • Exelon (EXC) 7:30am, $0.50
    • Exxon Mobil (XOM) 8am, $1.86 - Preview
    • Fortress Investment Group (FIG) 7am, $0.30
    • Generac Holdings (GNRC) 5:59am, $0.80
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) 7am, $0.96
    • Goldcorp (G CN) 8am, C$0.14 - Preview
    • Hecla Mining (HL) 8am, $0.01
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) 6am, $1.63
    • Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) 6am, $0.21
    • Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.45
    • Incyte (INCY) 7am, ($0.01)
    • Invesco (IVZ) 7:30am, $0.59
    • Iron Mountain (IRM) 6am, $0.42
    • ITT (ITT) 7am, $0.52
    • KBR (KBR) 6:01am, $0.27
    • Kellogg (K) 8am, $1.02 - Preview
    • L-3 Communications (LLL) 7am, $2.02
    • Legg Mason (LM) 7am, $0.55
    • LKQ (LKQ) 7am, $0.34
    • Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN) 7am, (C$0.12)
    • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 7:06am, $2.20 - Preview
    • MasterCard (MA) 8am, $0.77
    • McKesson (MCK) 7:30am, $2.33 - Preview
    • Mosaic (MOS) 7am, $0.74 - Preview
    • New Gold (NGD CN) 7:30am, $0.02 - Preview
    • Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) 6:30am, $0.54  - Preview
    • NiSource (NI) 6:30am, $0.24
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 7am, $1.76
    • Ocwen Financial (OCN) 7:30am, $0.82
    • Pentair (PNR) 7am, $1.03
    • PG&E (PCG) 9:02am, $0.75 - Preview
    • Pharmacyclics (PCYC) 8am, ($0.19)
    • Pinnacle West (PNW) 8:30am, $1.15
    • PPL (PPL) 6:57am, $0.45
    • Quanta Services (PWR) 6:07am, $0.41
    • Quebecor (QBR/B CN) 6am, C$0.47 - Preview
    • RioCan Real Estate Investment (REI-U CN) 7am, C$0.41
    • Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH) 7:30am, $0.43
    • Scana (SCG) 7:30am, $0.62 - Preview
    • Starz (STRZA) 7:30am, $0.50
    • Stillwater Mining (SWC) 8am, $0.16
    • Teco Energy (TE) 7:30am, $0.27
    • Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) 7am, $1.22 - Preview
    • Time Warner Cable (TWC) 6am, $1.90 - Preview
    • Timken (TKR) 7:30am, $0.66
    • TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:30am, C$0.48
    • Ultra Petroleum (UPL) 7:30am, $0.53
    • Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX CN) 6am, $1.90 - Preview
    • Vantiv (VNTV) 7am, $0.46
    • Vonage (VG) 8am, $0.03
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 6am, $0.41

PM EARNS:

    • Arch Capital (ACGL) 4:01pm, $0.98
    • Arris Group (ARRS) 4:01pm, $0.68
    • Ashland (ASH) 5pm, $1.57
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) 4pm, $0.08
    • Canadian Oil Sands (COS CN) 5:01pm, C$0.28
    • CNH Industrial (CNHI) 4:44pm, $0.21
    • Community Health Systems (CYH) 5pm, $0.35
    • Constellation Software (CSU CN) 4:30pm, $2.93
    • DaVita HealthCare (DVA) 4:01pm, $0.89
    • Edison Intl (EIX) 4pm, $0.82
    • Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 5:48pm, $0.05 - Preview
    • Expedia (EXPE) 4pm, $0.76
    • FleetCor Technologies (FLT) 4:01pm, $1.25
    • Fluor (FLR) 4:05pm, $0.99
    • Genpact (G) 4pm, $0.26
    • Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) 4:01pm, $0.18
    • LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:05pm, $0.39 - Preview
    • Live Nation (LYV) 4:01pm, $0.15
    • Microchip Technology (MCHP) 4:15pm, $0.67
    • Mohawk Industries (MHK) 4:01pm, $2.20
    • Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) 4:15pm, ($0.37)
    • Northeast Utilities (NU) 4:15pm, $0.51
    • ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 4:05pm, $0.19
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05pm, $0.58
    • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 4:05pm, $0.08
    • ResMed (RMD) 4:05pm, $0.66
    • Seattle Genetics (SGEN) 4:05pm, ($0.22)
    • Standard Pacific (SPF) 4:02pm, $0.13
    • SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $0.27
    • Synaptics (SYNA) 4:05pm, $1.40
    • Tesla Motors (TSLA) 4:11pm, $0.04
    • Trulia (TRLA) 4:05pm, ($0.16)
    • Western Union (WU) 4:01pm, $0.36

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Zinc Declines as Aluminum Nears Longest Winning Run in a Decade
  • Platinum to Palladium Fixings to Join Precious Metals Revamps
  • Gold ETPs Halt Outflows as Buyers Return Amid Slump: Commodities
  • Oilseed Sowing in India Seen Lowest in 12 Years on Monsoon Delay
  • Thai Rice Output Threatened by Drought, State Forecaster Says
  • Gold Trades Near Week’s Low as Investors Weigh U.S. Economy
  • Ukraine Supply Concerns Push EU Gas to First Monthly Gain of ‘14
  • Japan Rice Sold for Animal Feed Eats Into 11-Year High Surplus
  • Corn Heads for Third Monthly Decline on Bumper U.S. Crop Outlook
  • Palm Oil Poised for Monthly Drop as Malaysian Exports Decline
  • Vale Profit Misses Estimates as Iron Supply Growth Sinks Prices
  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia Cuts Iron Ore Prices Through ‘17
  • U.K. Energy Import Dependency Rises to Highest in 39 Years: DECC
  • Iron Ore to Cap Biggest Monthly Gain in 2014 as Demand Increases

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team