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EARLY CYCLE SLOW-DOWN

Client Talking Points

VIX

If you ask front-month VIX, the continued relative weakness in early cycle stocks? It is real. Volatility continues to test a bearish to bullish TREND reversal with TREND support now = 11.94. There is no resistance to 14.41.

INDUSTRIALS

The XLI (Industrial Select Sector) lead decliners yesterday, closing down -1.3% (it’s down -2.2% for the month-to-date, and now only +1.1% year-to-date.) More importantly, the XLI is now bearish on both our TRADE and TREND durations for the first time in 2014.

USD

The only thing not agreeing with our macro call right now is the U.S. Dollar UP. While a big part of this is Euro DOWN, it’s definitely worth watching as the USD retests where it was in January. It’s signaling overbought – so we’re waiting and watching to see the Fed’s next move.

Asset Allocation

CASH 30% US EQUITIES 4%
INTL EQUITIES 16% COMMODITIES 16%
FIXED INCOME 24% INTL CURRENCIES 10%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
HOLX

Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration.  The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month.  Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements.  When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner.  With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.

OC

Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery.  A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating.  Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms.  As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.

LM

Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

TREASURIES: 2.47% 10yr Yield set to test YTD lows again if US GDP misses  perma bull forecasts

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

The strength of a family, like the strength of an army, is in its loyalty to each other.

-Mario Puzo

STAT OF THE DAY

Home Prices growth slowed for a 6th consecutive month, decelerating -148bps sequentially in May to +9.3% YoY.  This was the 2nd biggest month of deceleration since August of 2010 (last month was the largest at -155bps).


TWTR: Fake User Growth to Get Worse (2Q14)

Takeaway: Our concerns used to be about lofty expectations, now the story is getting hairy. How much longer will the street pay up for fake users?

NOTE SUMMARY

  1. CRUSHED 2Q14, BUT NEW CONCERNS: TWTR beat the midpoint of its 2Q14 guidance by a whopping $37M (13.5% upside).  Both revenue segments accelerated on a y/y basis, and US User growth sharply accelerated (see below).  However, there may be an emerging trend around ad engagements that may mean its runway is shorter than initially believed.
  2. GUIDANCE RAISE DRIVEN BY ACQUISITIONS?: TWTR spent $134 million on acquisitions in 2Q, all within its Data Licensing/Other Segment, which saw considerable surge in revenue in 2Q (up 43% q/q vs. 6% in 1Q).  TWTR raised revenue guiance by ~$100M; but 40M came from 2Q upside to guidance.  The question is how much of the raise is organically driven when the Data segment saw a $10M surge in 2Q revenue alongside intra-quarter acquisitions.  Waiting for the 10-Q on this one, stay tuned.  
  3. USER NUMBERS ARE EXAGGERATED: This is the bigger story.  TWTR has a large number automated accounts (Bots) that link into twitter.  These aren't real users, so can't be monetized.  More importantly, bots are growing as a percentage of its total, and have represented a substantial portion of its user growth over the past year (+40% of new MAUs), which begs the question, what is the real runway here? 

 

CRUSHED 2Q14, BUT NEW CONCERNS

TWTR beat the midpoint of its 2Q14 guidance by a whopping $37M (13.5% upside).  Both revenue segments accelerated on a y/y basis, with advertising revenue growing 129% y/y (vs. 125% in 1Q), and Data Licensing & Other up 91% (vs. 76% in 1Q).  The big surprise was the acceleration in US User growth, which inflected higher after 6 quarters of decelerating growth (however, there may be some distortion, see next section for more detail).  At face value, just a very solid quarter.  

 

Another positive is that new ad formats and stronger advertiser demand around the World Cup led to its first q/q increase in cost per ad engagement (CPE).  However, total ad engagements decelerated considerably q/q to 4% (vs. 28% last quarter).  At face value, the combination of these two factors could suggest that TWTR isn't stuffing the channel with rising ad load as aggressively as we expected. 

 

However, it could also mean that TWTR may still be stuffing the channel, but the engagement rate on that rising ad load is declining.  2Q14 marks the first quarter in its reported history where the sequential growth in timeline views outpaced that of ad engagements.  If the ad engagement rate is declining, it would suggest that TWTR users are starting to fade/ignore ads. In turn, rising ad engagement would increase at a proportionately lower rate than the increasing ad burden it placing on its members.  In short, the attrition risk rises for a waning yield. 

 

TWTR: Fake User Growth to Get Worse (2Q14) - TWTR  Timeline vs. Ad Engagements 

 

GUIDANCE RAISE DRIVEN BY ACQUISITIONS? 

TWTR spent $134 million on 7 acquisitions in 2Q, all within its Data Licensing/Other Segment, which saw considerable surge in revenue in 2Q (up 43% q/q).  TWTR raised guiance by ~$100M; but ~40M came from 2Q upside to guidance, which translates to roughly $60 increase to its 2H14 outlook.

 

The question is how much of the raise is organically driven when the Data segment saw a $10M q/q surge in 2Q revenues alongside 7 acquisitions that were added intra-quarter, hence didn't contribute a full quarter of revenues.  2 more were announced in this quarter, both of which are likely factored into guidance as well, and we could see more coming.  It's possible that we could see a meaningful shift in revenues toward its Data segment next quarter.  We're waiting for the 10-Q to settle this one, so stay tuned.  

 

USER NUMBERS ARE EXAGGERATED

This is the bigger story.  TWTR has a large amount automated accounts that link into twitter with no user interaction ("bots").  These bots aren't real users, they do not engage in content, so they can't be monetized (don't click on ads).  

 

During 2Q14, TWTR disclosed that these bots represented 14% of its MAUs (38M); that is double the percentage from 2Q13.  Further, these bots represented a substantial portion of its user growth over the past year.  Total MAUs increased by 53M y/y in 2Q14, 23M of those were bots (+43%).  After backing out bots from its MAUs in 2Q14, real user growth was up only 15% y/y, vs. the 24% reported by management.  On a q/q basis, TWTR's real user growth has dwarfed that of total user growth over the LTM, despite the relatively smaller user base

 

TWTR: Fake User Growth to Get Worse (2Q14) - TWTR   Real vs. Total User Growth

 

Management comments suggest this may be a growing issue.  Timeline views per MAU have been declining on a y/y basis over the past 3 quarters as bots represent a growing percentage of total MAUs, in turn, inflating the denominator. Management stated during the 2Q14 call it expects timeline view per MAU will continue to decline due y/y to "product enhancements", but after backing out the impact of bots, per-user engagement is essentially flat y/y.  If management expects the trend in declining timeline views/per MAU to continue, it likely means it expects the bulk of its MAU growth will come from bots moving forward.  

  

So what is the real runway on MAU growth? What happens when the street catches on to the disparity between active and real users, and what happens when its real user growth slips into the single-digits? 15% growth in 2Q suggests we're not that far away.  We remain short.  

 

Let us know if you have any questions, or would like to discuss further.  

 

 

Hesham Shaaban, CFA

@HedgeyeInternet 

 

 


July 30, 2014

July 30, 2014 - 1 

BULLISH TRENDS

July 30, 2014 - Slide2

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July 30, 2014 - Slide4

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July 30, 2014 - Slide6

July 30, 2014 - Slide7

July 30, 2014 - Slide8

 

BEARISH TRENDS

 

July 30, 2014 - Slide9

July 30, 2014 - Slide10

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the macro show

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Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

CHART OF THE DAY: Keeping a Close Eye on the Dollar

Takeaway: Rather than be wed to any particular macro theme, we’ll let Mr. Macro Market give us hints as to what we should do next here.

CHART OF THE DAY: Keeping a Close Eye on the Dollar - Chart of the Day


Fleeting Emotions

“Fleeting emotions tempt us to make decisions that are bad in the long term.”

-Chip & Dan Heath

 

That’s another important quote from the recent #behavioral book I finished this week – Decisive, by Chip & Dan Heath.

 

How do you overcome your short-term emotions in markets? Does loss aversion drive your decision making? How does mere exposure to something going against you affect your #process?

 

The Heath boys suggest that “our decisions are often altered by two subtle short-term emotions: 1. Exposure to what’s familiar to us; and 2. Loss aversion.” (pg 174) Both 1 and 2 sound like a market’s last price to me.

 

Fleeting Emotions - 4v

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Real-time prices are very familiar to us. Unless you’re someone who doesn’t do #timestamps (in Independent Research terms) or have a buy-side P&L, so is loss aversion. Which brings me to the one major macro position that is currently going against me – the US Dollar.

 

If you pull up a 2 year chart of the US Dollar Index, you’ll note that:

 

  1. It made a long-term higher-low in Q4 of 2012 around $79 when we made the US #GrowthAccelerating call
  2. It made a #GrowthAccelerating cycle peak around $85 in Q3 of 2013 (Q313 GDP = +4.1%)
  3. As #GrowthSlowing took hold from Q413 to Q214, it retraced all of those gains back to $79 and change

 

If you only look at a 6-7 month (YTD) chart of the US Dollar Index:

 

  1. It dropped from $81.5 in January back down to $79.5 in May
  2. Then it bounced hard off that May low when Draghi devalued the EUR/USD
  3. And now it’s right back to where it was in January

 

In other words it really hasn’t done anything. That said, it could go up or down a lot from here. If it continues to track both Fed Policy and the rate of change (slope of the line) in US Growth, there’s no reason why it can’t go straight back down to $79.5.

 

But what if US growth continues to slow, the Fed gets incrementally dovish, and Draghi gets even more dovish? Unfortunately, God didn’t call me this morning with that answer – so I don’t know.

 

Rather than be wed to any particular macro theme, I’ll let Mr. Macro Market give me hints as to what I should do next. If the Fed does what consensus has been looking for all yr (continues to taper/tighten), and USD heads higher, that would be bearish for Commodities (and bullish for the US consumer). Everyone in America (other than the guys running #YieldChasing MLP schemes) should want that.

 

In other news that is un-related to my current macro mistake:

 

  1. Industrial Stocks (XLI) were -1.3% yesterday (-2.2% for July) and are now signaling bearish TREND @Hedgeye
  2. Equity Volatility (VIX) was up again yesterday to 13.28 (+19% since 1st wk of July) = bullish TREND @Hedgeye
  3. Both the Russell 2000 and UST 10yr Bond Yield continue to signal bearish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye

 

What’s most interesting to me about the Industrials (XLI) joining the US Consumer and Housing stocks (XLY and ITB are down 2014 YTD too) is that some of them are classic early-cycle indicators.

 

“So,” setting aside my own personal US Dollar baggage, what if the bigger picture here is that the entire US economy is heading into an early cycle recession? Wouldn’t that be just peachy?

 

Don’t forget that we are 62 months into a US economic “expansion.” Both that and the SP500 not having had a 10% correction in 33 months (hasn’t happened since 1990) might just be a tad longer in the tooth than a 2-3 month US Dollar dead cat bounce.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.44-2.54%

SPX 1

RUT 1131-1154

VIX 11.94-14.41

USD 80.61-81.39

EUR/USD 1.33-1.35

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Fleeting Emotions - Chart of the Day


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 30, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or 0.51% downside to 1960 and 0.41% upside to 1978.                                   

                                                                                            

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.93 from 1.92
  • VIX closed at 13.28 1 day percent change of 5.73%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, July 25 (prior 2.4%)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, July, est. 230k (prior 281k)
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized q/q, 2Q, est. 3% (prior -2.9%)
  • Personal Consumption, 2Q, est. 1.9% (prior 1%)
  • 2pm: FOMC seen maintaining overnight bank lending rate target near 0%, reducing QE by another $10b

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama speaks on the economy in Kansas City
    • Sec. of State John Kerry in India, joined by Commerce Sec. Penny Pritzker for 5th U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue
    • 10am: Sen. Judiciary Cmte hearing on Violence Against Women Act, protecting women from gun violence
    • 10am: Senate Banking subcmte hearing on flood insurance
    • 10am: House Judiciary Cmte hearing on need for special counsel to investigate IRS
    • 10:45am: Sens. McCaskill, D-Mo.; Heller, R-Nev.; Blumenthal, D-Conn.; Grassley, R-Iowa; Gillibrand, D-N.Y.; Ayotte, R-N.H.; Rubio, R-Fla. hold news conf. to introduce bill to combat sexual assaults on college, university campuses
    • 12pm: Sen. Minority Leader McConnell, R-Ky.; and Rep. Kelly, R-Pa., hold news conf. on economic consequences of EPA’s proposed power plant rule

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • EU joins U.S. in escalating pressure on Russian finance
  • Putin jeopardizes Russian firms’ access to $600b in funds
  • MSCI in “active dialogue” with global investors on Russia
  • Fed Decision-Day Guide: QE tapering, job gains, inflation debate
  • AstraZeneca to buy respiratory rights from Almirall for $875m
  • SEC may revise speed rules on IEX exchange plans: Reuters
  • McDonald’s Japan pulls profit forecast amid supplier scandal
  • Toyota outsells VW, GM in 1H on rising demand for SUVs
  • Former Time Warner CEO Parsons says Fox offer “Way Off Mark”
  • Barclays returns to 2Q profit on costs, provisions
  • ECB says bank credit standards eased for first time since 2007
  • Argentine debt talks to resume today as default deadline looms
  • Ending ‘too big to fail’ may rest on obscure contract language
  • Shelling of UN shelter in Gaza kills 20 as fighting worsens
  • Japan’s output drops most since 2011 as consumers spend less
  • Osram to cut ~7,800 jobs worldwide

 

AM EARNS:

    • ADT (ADT) 6am, $0.47
    • AllianceBernstein (AB) 7:15am, $0.41
    • American Tower (AMT) 7am, $0.53 - Preview
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 6:30am, $0.42
    • Carlyle (CG) 6:30am, $0.74
    • Cenovus Energy (CVE CN) 6am, C$0.50 - Preview
    • CGI (GIB/A CN) 6:30am, C$0.73
    • Dominion Resources (D) 7:30am, $0.62
    • Energizer (ENR) 7:30am, $1.54 - Preview
    • Franklin Resources (BEN) 8:30am, $0.95
    • Garmin (GRMN) 7am, $0.76
    • Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) 7:30am, $0.79
    • Hess (HES) 7:30am, $1.18 - Preview
    • Hospira (HSP) 7:30am, $0.57
    • Humana (HUM) 6am, $2.19
    • Huntsman (HUN) 7am, $0.48
    • Intact Financial (IFC CN) 6am, C$1.55
    • InterActiveCorp (IACI) 7:30am, $0.79
    • Lorillard (LO) 7am, $0.88 - Preview
    • Lumber Liquidators (LL) 7am, $0.63
    • MeadWestvaco (MWV) 7:25am, $0.50
    • MEG Energy (MEG CN) 5am, C$0.45
    • Nice Systems (NICE) 5:30am, $0.59
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) 8am, $1.69 - Preview
    • Pitney Bowes (PBI) 6:30am, $0.46
    • Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) 7:30am, $0.51
    • Revlon (REV) 6:30am, $0.46
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7am, $1.55
    • Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30am, $0.38
    • Sherritt Intl (S CN) 6:09am, C$(0.07) - Preview
    • SodaStream Intl (SODA) 7:30am, $0.40
    • Sonus Networks (SONS) 7am, $0.01
    • Southern (SO) 7:30am, $0.67
    • Sprint (S) 7:30am, $(0.05)
    • SPX (SPW) 6:30am, $1.19
    • Taser Intl (TASR) 7:30am, $0.08
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.46
    • TransAlta (TA CN) 7:45am, $0.01
    • Valero Energy (VLO) 7:49am, $1.20 - Preview
    • Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 7am, $0.14
    • WellPoint (WLP) 6am, $2.26
    • Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7am, $0.52

 

PM EARNS:

    • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM CN) 5pm, $0.28 - Preview
    • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) 4:01pm, $0.55
    • Albemarle (ALB) 4:03pm, $1.10
    • Allstate (ALL) 4:05pm, $0.66
    • American Equity Investment (AEL) 4pm, $0.50
    • Barrick Gold (ABX CN) Aft-Mkt, $0.15 - Preview
    • BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) 4pm, $(0.43)
    • Duke Realty (DRE) 4:11pm, $(0.03)
    • Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) 4:01pm, $0.24
    • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) 5pm, $0.25 - Preview
    • FMC (FMC) 4:15pm, $1.02
    • FNF (FNF) 4:03pm, $0.52
    • Fortune Brands (FBHS) 4:01pm, $0.54
    • Halcon Resources (HK) 4:15pm, $0.04
    • Hartford Financial (HIG) 4:15pm, $0.67
    • Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.34
    • Intersil (ISIL) 4:05pm, $0.18
    • KapStone Paper (KS) 4:15pm, $0.60
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 5pm, $0.04 - Preview
    • Kraft Foods (KRFT) 4pm, $0.82 - Preview
    • Lam Research (LRCX) 4:05pm, $1.23
    • LifeLock (LOCK) 4:05pm, $0.04
    • Lincoln National (LNC) 4:10pm, $1.36
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) 5pm, $0.06 - Preview
    • Manitowoc (MTW) 4:25pm, $0.43
    • MetLife (MET) 4:05pm, $1.41
    • Moelis (MC) Aft-Mkt, $0.25
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) 5:01pm, $1.22
    • Noble (NE) 5pm, $0.66
    • Penn Virginia (PVA) 4:05pm, $(0.04)
    • Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) 4:45pm, $0.66
    • Questar (STR) 4:14pm, $0.22
    • Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.40
    • RR Donnelley (RRD) 4pm, $0.35
    • Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) 4:05pm, $0.05
    • Service Intl (SCI) 4:15pm, $0.23
    • ServiceNow (NOW) 4:01pm, $(0.07)
    • Solazyme (SZYM) 4:25pm, $(0.39)
    • Spansion (CODE) 4:03pm, $0.25
    • Suncor Energy (SU CN) 10pm, C$0.98 - Preview
    • Superior Energy Services (SPN) 4:05pm, $0.41
    • Tesoro (TSO) 4:30pm, $1.82 - Preview
    • Unum (UNM) 4pm, $0.87
    • Weight Watchers Intl (WTW) 4:05pm, $0.77
    • Western Digital (WDC) 4:15pm, $1.73 - Preview
    • Whiting Petroleum (WLL) 4pm, $1.26
    • Whole Foods Market (WFM) 4:03pm, $0.39
    • Williams (WMB) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • Yamana Gold (YRI CN) 4:20pm, $0.03 - Preview
    • Yelp (YELP) 4pm, $(0.03) - Preview

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI’s Discount to Brent Shrinks as Russia Sanction Impact Muted
  • Stolen India Coal Sent to Market in Modi’s Backyard: Commodities
  • Commodity Assets Seen by Barclays Increasing to $325 Billion
  • Thai Sugar Offered at Discount to New York, Green Pool Says
  • Gold Holds Two-Day Decline as Investors Weigh U.S. Outlook
  • Japan Buys 26,340 Mt of Feed Wheat 122,750 Mt of Feed Barley
  • Soybeans in Chicago Climb as Much as 0.3%, Reversing Decline
  • Haze Fines Win Indonesia’s Support With Caveats: Southeast Asia
  • Rubber Drops as Japan Industrial Output Falls More Than Forecast
  • HSBC, ABN Sue Metals Trader Detained in Qingdao Loan Fraud Probe
  • Cocoa Arrivals in Brazil’s Bahia Advance 2.3%, Hartmann Reports
  • China Rows Back on Shale Ambitions as Expertise Falls Short
  • Aluminum Beating Copper as Supply-Demand Flips: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Market Losing Faith in Libya’s Ability to Ramp Crude: Energy

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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