Consensus estimates, management guidance and commentary, and questions for management in preparation for the earnings release/call tomorrow.
Q2 2014 CONSENSUS ESTIMATES
- Total revenues: $1,177 million
- Owned & Leased Hotels: $616 million
- Other Revs from Managed Hotels: $441 million
- Managed & Franchised Fees: $102 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: $234 million
- EPS: $0.45/share
- No specific guidance
- Adjusted SG&A of approx $325 million.
- Capital expenditures of approx $325 million, including about $150 million for investment in new properties.
- The Company intends to continue a strong level of investment spending including: acquisitions, equity investments in joint ventures, debt investments, contract acquisition costs or other investments.
- D&A of approx $375 million.
- Interest expense of approx $75 million.
- Open approximately 40 hotels
QUESTIONS FOR MANAGEMENT
- Views on assets sales given strength in transaction market as well as hotel REIT share performance - one off vs portfolio transactions
- Where are inflation pressures negatively impacting margins?
- ROI on renovations from last 2 years?
- Discuss investment spending plans for the remainder of 2014.
- What is your goal in terms of fees vs owned EBITDA?
- What is the right leverage? Current thoughts on share repurchases?
- Rate vs occupancy gains this year and where are we in the cycle?
- Actual RevPAR vs ST and competition
- Group outlook for Q3 and Q4 given MAR management commentary
RECENT MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY
- Seeing both group and transient strength from sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and insurance.
- Strong top-line results will result in realized strong owned and leased margin growth in the U.S.
- Confident in the business trends in the U.S.
- Occupancy rates are at record levels and continue to see strong average rate growth.
- F&B business continues to improve.
- Outside the U.S.
- Positive demand growth
- Second quarter comparisons will be tougher due to the timing of Easter and some quarterly variability in incentive fees as a result of seasonality and contract structure related to our management of four hotels in France -- which came into the system during the second quarter of 2013. As a result, incentive fee growth in the second quarter of 2013 was strong
- Experienced strong group production in the quarter for all future periods
- Group revenue booked in the quarter for the year increased over 13%, translating into improved pace for this year
- Group pace for 2015 has increased about 200 basis points over the last quarter from about 5% to about 7%.
- Demand remains relatively robust
- Group pace for the remainder of 2014 and into 2015 is healthy
- San Francisco, Orlando, San Antonio and Chicago were strong. D.C. continues to be relatively weak.
- Increased demand in corporate and association business, see healthy levels of businesses into 2015 and 2016
- Pace has increased over the last quarter probably in the range of 100 basis points to 200 basis points, something like that. Similar to the expansion in the 2013 pace expansion which was about 200 basis points quarter-over-quarter
- See a continuation of group into the second quarter and in the future periods and a long look at pace going out into 2015, 2016 and into 2017 as well, the view is for some very healthy numbers, which leads to a lot of confidence in group.
- The opportunity is there because transient is strong to now really focus on rate, both in the transient side as well as in the group side.
- Flow through on the mix of RevPAR that is mostly rate would be north of 60%
- Internationally, roughly 40%, 42% of our revenue is non-rooms revenue.
- Domestically, F&B is less, so room revenues to F&B is probably around 70/30.
- China appear to be stabilizing relative to a volatile 2013 and realized solid overall RevPAR growth in China
Preferred Acquisition Markets
- Focused and actively looking gateway city opportunities in Europe, in the U.S., and Miami and Los Angles remain high priorities
Park Hyatt New York
- Commitment to purchase the hotel upon completion at a fixed price of $375 million - 210 keys, so about $1.8 million a key
- Hyatt is a two-thirds joint venture partner in the JV that has a commitment to buy the hotel
- Expect to open the hotel in the third quarter (was previously mid-year).
- Hyatt will purchase a two-thirds interest in this hotel upon completion, so roughly, $250 million commitment.
- Will look to finance the acquisition -- in the range of 50% of the purchase price with debt.
- EBITDA impact, de minimis in 2014.
Modeling (EBITDA) Adjustments
- The Hyatt Regency acquisition in Orlando, will be a net $45 million of incremental
- Playa EBITDA is $13 million to $15 million for 2014, about a third of that was generated in the first quarter. Have an additional two hotels towards the end of the year that will be rebranded and converted once renovation is completed
Acquisitions & Dispositions
- Expect to close (during Q2 2014) on the purchase of the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress in Orlando, Florida for $190 million.
- This hotel is currently consolidated as an owned and leased hotel pursuant to a capital lease.
- There will be no change to Hyatt's reported adjusted EBITDA as a result of the acquisition.
- From a balance sheet perspective, Hyatt will pay $190 million in cash and reduce debt on balance sheet by $190 million.
- 2014 interest expense estimate reflects this purchase
- Hyatt signed a definitive agreement for ILG to purchase Hyatt Residential Group for approximately $190 million.
- In addition, ILG will acquire Hyatt’s interest in a joint venture that owns and is developing a 131-unit vacation ownership property in Maui, and will reimburse Hyatt an additional approximately $35 million.
- Currently marketing nine full service hotels in North America for
a potential sale.
- The Company expects that a significant number of new properties will be opened under all of the Company's brands in the future.
- As of March 31, 2014 this effort was underscored by executed management or franchise contracts for approximately 240 hotels (or approximately 54,000 rooms) across all brands.
- Subsequent to Q1, an unconsolidated hospitality venture sold Hyatt Place Austin Downtown (296 rooms). The Company received approximately $25 million for its equity interest. As a result of this sale, the Company's pro rata share of unconsolidated hospitality venture debt was reduced by approximately $18 million. The Company continues to franchise the hotel.
- Expect to open 40 hotels in 2015. Opened about 50 hotels last year.
- Very deliberate - the key global full-service markets are London and Miami, San Francisco, Hong Kong, Los Angeles
- Select service properties - focus remains on urban development and with respect to resorts
- Playa focused on Mexico, and the Caribbean in North America.
- Hyatt Regency Chongming, 235 rooms
- Hyatt Place Dubai/Al Rigga, 210 rooms
- Hyatt Place Portland, 130 rooms
- Hyatt Regency Tianjin, 306 rooms
- Hyatt Place Dongmen, Shenzen, 144 rooms
- Hyatt Atlanta Perimeter at Villa Christina, 177 rooms
- Hyatt Place Flushing, 168 rooms
- Park Hyatt Viena, 143 rooms
- Andaz Tokyo Toranomon Hills, 164 rooms
- Hyatt Place Champaign/Urbana, 145 rooms
- Hyatt Place Washington DC/US Capital, 200 rooms
- From April 1 through April 25, 2014, the Company repurchased 500,529 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $53.91 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $27 million.
- As of April 25, 2014, the Company had approximately $101 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
- May 16, 2014, the Company announced the Company's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $300 million of the Company's common stock. The Company currently has approximately $385 million remaining under its repurchase authorization.