A down low to mid single digit month is in the cards for July
Table revenue averaged HK$885 million per day in the 4th week of the month, down 11% from the comparable week of 2013. We are hearing that some properties (Galaxy, MGM, MPEL) may have experienced lower than normal hold over the past 7-14 days. Peninsula properties was hit particularly hard by low hold. Mass remains strong although we think June's deceleration was not an anomaly.
With 4 days left in the month, we expect July GGR to fall low to mid-single digits YoY.
In terms of market share, Wynn, LVS, and Galaxy are leading the way when compared to recent trend. Indeed, Galaxy is the only Macau stock we like on the long side currently. MPEL and MGM are both tracking below recent trend.
As for the upcoming Cotai projects, we continue to believe Galaxy's Phase 2 expansion may be the only new property to open in 2015. Parisian (LVS) construction remains stalled while Macau Studio City's (MPEL) construction timetable may also suggest an early 2016 opening. Parisian remains stalled while Sand China Limited awaits a full construction permit. Historically, we understand operators began construction after filing for permits but prior to actual award of such permits.