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Young Gotze's Got Game!

This note was originally published at 8am on July 14, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.”

-Gary Lineker


I’m flying to London this morning, so I figure that if North Americans reading this don’t know who Gary Lineker is, the investors I am meeting with in the UK tonight will! Lineker still holds the English record for goals at the World Cup with ten.


The OT winner yesterday was only Mario Gotze’s 2nd career goal at the World Cup, but that’s because he is only 22 years old. He and his sniper teammate Andre Schurrle were the only two players on the team who were born after Germany’s unification.


As times change, people and countries do. The spirit of selfless teamwork displayed by the German side was something all of Germany should be proud of this morning. Alongside a passionate veteran effort, Germany empowered its youngest players to lead. There’s a lot to learn from that.


Young Gotze's Got Game! - goal


Back to the Global Macro Grind


Who are your best up and coming people? Do you foster a meritocracy where they can thrive? Or are you more or less set with a traditional hierarchy? How about your investment process? How often does it evolve? Does it embrace change?


If the boomer generation’s US political establishment was a soccer team, here’s how some of its media represents it:


"Ever since Cantor lost his primary, a lot of people are scouring the map, saying: Which House incumbent will be next to fall? Well, don't hold your breath. I was checking in with sources in both parties this week and Democrats say they don't think any of their incumbents will lose primaries.” –John King, CNN


It’s a good thing that politicians in both the Republican and Democrat party who have lost the trust of The People have it all figured out. But what if Hedgeye’s forecast for #Q3Slowing takes hold, both the US Dollar and Bond Yields fall, and domestic growth expectations fall alongside them?


Do you think 2015 will look any different from a political perspective? Or do you think America’s younger people (my generation and Millenials) will let un-elected bureaucrats at places like the Fed (and the IRS) continue with these tired, old, slow-growth Policies To Inflate?


Right when everyone didn’t think it could happen, that’s precisely what happened last week:


  1. US Dollar Index was down for the 3rd out of the last 4 weeks and remains below our TAIL risk line of $81.19
  2. US 10 Year Treasury Yields fell another 12 basis points to 2.52% (that’s -51 basis points for the YTD)
  3. US Domestic Growth Stocks (Russell 2000) got tagged for a -4% loss, putting it back in the red for the YTD


I know. When it’s mid-July and the Russell 2000 is down YTD, that means everything growth is ripping. Right. Got it. And Brazil looked mint against Germany too.


Back to reality… On the other side of domestic growth expectations being marked down last week:


  1. Slow-growth Utilities (XLU) had another up-week in a down equity market, closing +0.8% to +12.8% YTD
  2. #YieldChasing REITS jammed Americans with new all-time highs in rents, +1% on the week to +16.3% YTD
  3. Gold and Silver were up another +1.4-1.7% to +11.2% and +10.4% YTD, respectively


Yep, we’re talking big time bull market now – in growth slowing expectations!


At the same time, US Equity Volatility (VIX) ripped off its most asymmetric long-term TAIL line of support (VIX 10) closing the week +17.5%. But no worries… Janet Yellen is going to say everything is just dandy at her semi-annual-central-planning testimony to Congress this week.


Or will she?


I don’t think Yellen will be as bullish about the US economy as Old Wall Street’s estimates are for “year-end” bond yields and US GDP growth to accelerate. Don’t forget that at the last Fed meeting she took down her US growth estimates. Since then, real US consumption data has deteriorated.


Yellen isn’t a young baby boomer. She was actually born on the front-end of the boomer cycle (1946). She and I probably think about economics, markets, and risk as differently as Gotze does about Germany, post the Berlin Wall coming down.


I’m not saying that older generations are all wrong. In fact, many of the most thoughtful investors I meet with are boomers (born 1946-1964) and are more adamant about changing monetary policy than I am!  If Americans want to start winning again, they need to change the players they have on the field.


Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:


UST 10yr Yield 2.49-2.59%

SPX 1953-1985

RUT 1149-1175

DAX 9599-9868

VIX 11.51-12.67

USD 79.71-80.31

WTIC Oil 100.03-104.13

Gold 1316-1342


Best of luck out there this week,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Young Gotze's Got Game! - Chart of the Day

July 28, 2014

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CHART OF THE DAY: Double Bogeys Galore From The Fed


CHART OF THE DAY: Double Bogeys Galore From The Fed - Chart of the Day

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Process & Spot

“Very simple. It’s going to be a big letdown for everyone. It was process and spot.”

-Rory Mcilroy


I don’t know about yours, but my multi-factor, multi-duration analysis this summer has revealed that my golf game needs some serious work. The hottest hand on the Hedgeye Research Tour, Howard Penney, reminded me that I need to get Rory’s #process.


After his British Open win, Mcilroy explained “with my long shots, I just wanted to stick to my process and stick to making good decisions… I just wanted to roll that ball over that spot. If it went in, then great. If it didn’t, then I’d try it the next hole.”


Process & Spot - #love that. If we can execute it, consistently, on the Global Macro course of interconnected risk, we’ll make less double bogeys. Remember, it’s those of you who don’t have a lot of blow-up holes that have the best performance track records.


Process & Spot - golf


Back to the Global Macro Grind


In Hedgeye-speak, making our tee-to-fairway swing (process) repeatable means embracing the uncertainty of Mr. Macro Market’s intermediate-term TREND signals:


  1. If something like Chinese Stocks or Copper signal a bearish to bullish TREND reversal, we buy/cover
  2. If something like the Russell 2000 or Bond Yields signal a bullish to bearish TREND reversal, we sell/short


In long-bond speak, when we sell bond yields, we buy bonds. And we like it.


When it comes to our shorter-term duration game (putting), we try to manage what we call the immediate-term TRADE risk of the range. In other words, we respect the breaks and try to take the highest probability line of the proverbial putt by:


  1. Selling if the price is at the high end of the range
  2. Buying if the price is at the low-end of the range


Yep. So easy a Mucker can do it. What’s differentiated in this process is that I’m consistent in being inconsistent:


  1. My long shots are playing with the wind (bullish or bearish TREND)
  2. My putts are playing the breaks (fading last price)


Consensus Macro tends to do the opposite:


  1. Longer-term – consensus tends to be late in acknowledging bullish and bearish TREND reversals
  2. Shorter-term – consensus tends to chase, rather than fade, last price


Across both short and longer-term durations, you can see this on the most emotional strokes the Consensus Macro takes (net long or short futures and options bets in Big Macro positioning):


  1. LONG BOND (10r Treasury) saw a +26,023 wk/wk swing to a net LONG position in bonds now of +5,282 contracts last wk
  2. SPX (Index + Emini) saw a +37,728 wk/wk swing to a net LONG position in SP500 of +614 contracts last wk


Now, if you only look at these putts in isolation, you’d say that week over week, these were the right lines to take. But if you look at all the swings it took to get to the green, this was the score:


  1. LONG BOND – consensus net SHORT bet on average of -21,204 and -43,289 contracts for the last 3 and 6 months, respectively
  2. SPX – consensus net SHORT bet on average of -65,318 and -44,327 contracts for the last 3 and 6 months, respectively


In other words, for the last 3-6 months, Consensus Macro was A) shorting 10yr Treasuries and B) shorting SPY (and C) making double bogeys). You don’t want to be doing that.


And now you don’t want to be getting net long US Equity beta A) after consensus hedge funds have covered SPX shorts, B) Russell 2000 continues to signal bearish TREND, and C) front-month VIX is testing an intermediate-term TREND bearish to bullish reversal.


Or at least my process says you wouldn’t…


With the CRB Food Index and Energy Stocks (XLE) both up another +0.9% last week to +19.7% and +12.8%, respectively (Coffee and Cattle prices are +52.9% and +28.2% YTD), you probably want to stay net LONG our 2014 #InflationAccelerating Theme and short US Consumers (discretionary and housing stocks) too.


In golf sometimes it’s the shots you don’t take that make all the difference. #Process, spot, #process. Rinse and repeat.


Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:


UST 10yr Yield 2.44-2.54%


RUT 1133-1161  

VIX 11.94-14.29

Gold 1

Copper 3.20-3.28  


Best of luck out there this week,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Process & Spot - Chart of the Day


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 28, 2014

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 0.62% downside to 1966 and 0.44% upside to 1987.                                     













  • YIELD CURVE: 1.99 from 1.98
  • VIX closed at 12.69 1 day percent change of 7.18%


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Services, July prelim., est. 59.8 (prior 61.0)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Composite PMI, July prelim. (prior 61)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales m/m, Jun, est. 0.5% (prior 6.1%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Mfg Activity, July, est. 12 (prior 11.4)
  • 11am: Fed purchases $1b-$1.25b notes in 2036-2044 sector
  • 11am: U.S. announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $27b 3M, $24b 6M bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 2Y notes



    • EPA to hold public hearings this week in Atlanta, Denver, Pittsburgh, Washington on proposed carbon dioxide emissions standards for existing, modified, reconstructed power plants
    • EU representatives to discuss curbs on trade, investment with Crimea, penalites for business allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin
    • 9:30am: Rep. Scott Garrett, R-N.J., holds roundtable on equity market structure with KCG CEO Daniel B. Coleman, SIFMA CEO Ken Bentsen, Nasdaq OMX CEO Robert Greifeld, BATS Global Markets CEO Joe Ratterman, TD Ameritrade CEO Fred Tomczyk among participants; Library of Congress
    • 12:15pm: Treasury Secretary Jack Lew releases annual Social Security and Medicare trustees reports



  • Danone said to be in talks to sell medical unit to Hospira
  • JPMorgan to sell $1.3b of assets to Sankaty Advisors
  • Yukos owners win $50b award against Russia
  • Global pressure mounts on Israel to halt Gaza offensive
  • Goldman said in talks to settle mortgage case for $800m-$1.25b
  • Reckitt Benckiser confirms plans to spin off suboxone unit
  • China H-shares rise 20% from March low, enter bull market
  • Big Mac banished in Shanghai after meat scare prompts recall
  • U.S. says satellite photos show Russia shelling into Ukraine
  • Fox said open to giving board seats to Time Warner investors
  • Microsoft taps Tencent, JD.com for first Xbox sales in China
  • Deutsche Bank, HSBC sued for alleged silver fix manipulation



    • Armstrong World (AWI) 7am, $0.65
    • Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) 8am, $0.14
    • Compass Minerals Intl (CMP) 7am, $0.26
    • Cummins (CMI) 7:30am, $2.39
    • Old National Bancorp (ONB) 9am, $0.26
    • Roper (ROP) 7am, $1.50
    • RPM Intl (RPM) 7:30am, $0.78
    • Tenneco (TEN) 7am, $1.26
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30am, $0.78



    • American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4:01pm, $0.68
    • American Financial (AFG) 5pm, $0.94
    • Amkor Technology (AMKR) 4:08pm, $0.15
    • CNO Financial (CNO) 4:03pm, $0.31
    • Cognex (CGNX) 4:06pm, $0.22
    • Crane (CR) 4:15pm, $1.16
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) 5pm, $1.84
    • General Growth Properties (GGP) 4:01pm, $0.10
    • HealthSouth (HLS) 4:30pm, $0.47
    • Herbalife (HLF) 4:30pm, $1.57
    • Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) 4:01pm, $0.16
    • Jacobs Engineering (JEC) 9:30pm, $0.86
    • Masco (MAS) 5:15pm, $0.28
    • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) 4pm, $0.57
    • Owens & Minor (OMI) 5:17pm, $0.46
    • PartnerRe (PRE) 4:30pm, $2.62
    • Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4:04pm, $0.30
    • Range Resources (RRC) 5:02pm, $0.40
    • WR Berkley (WRB) 4:05pm, $0.76
    • XL (XL) 5pm, $0.84



  • WTI Crude Drops Before U.S. Economic Data; Brent Falls
  • Gold Bulls Boost Bet on Rally as Prices Extend Drop: Commodities
  • World Weather Seen Abnormal as El Nino Poised to Develop: Lerner
  • Gold Declines in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Investor Demand
  • Lead Reaches 17-Month High on Supply Outlook as Aluminum Gains
  • Wheat Production in Parts of Australia Seen Hurt by Dry Weather
  • Big Mac Banished in Shanghai as Meat Scare Prompts Probe
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Weaker Aluminum Premiums as Contango Shrinks
  • China Takes on Hitachi as 17-Year-Old Rare Earth Patent Ends
  • Rubber Reaches Three-Week High as Thai Price Drop Lures Buyers
  • Steel Rebar Rises Most in One-Month as China Outlook Improves
  • Bulls Fleeing Natural Gas as Goldman Sees Further Drop: Energy
  • Corn, Wheat Supply Outlook Fully Priced In, ANZ Says in Report
  • China’s State Stockpiler Said to Miss Cobalt Purchase Target


























The Hedgeye Macro Team
















Commodities: Weekly Quant

Takeaway: Week Ending Friday, July 25th

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 1 CRB Divergences

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 2 commodity performance

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 3 CRB volume metrics

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 4 Implied Volatility

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 5 Sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 6 USD Correl.

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 7 S P Correl

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 8 1 month correl

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 9 3 month correl

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 10 6 month correl

 Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 11 1 Year correl

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