Retail Callouts (7/18): VFC, TGT

Takeaway: VFC - 2 callouts from print, 1) International, 2) SIGMA. TGT - still feeling the heat from the data breach



VFC - 2Q14 Earnings


Takeaway: Two key callouts from the print this morning. 1) International growth rate continues to accelerate sequentially on both the one and two year trend line. European constant currency growth rate up 900bps YY. 2) SIGMA - gross margin came in 80bps below expectations, but inventories look much cleaner heading out of 2Q compared to 1Q. A much better set up for VFC heading into the balance of the year.


Retail Callouts (7/18): VFC, TGT - chart1 7 18



TGT, AMZN - Amazon Has the Best Consumer Perception of Any Brand Mid-year, rankings show Target hit hard by data breach



  • "The retailer last year was the No. 7 best-perceived brand among consumers, but not only did it fall off the top 10 list, it plummeted all the way down to No. 21."


Takeaway: This survey ask respondents whether they've heard anything about the brand in the past 2 weeks, and if so was it positive or negative. TGT has been no stranger to headlines over the past 8 months, and the data breach continues to affect shopper perception of the brand. The reality is that when a customer has a great experience in retail, they tell a friend. When a customer has a customer has a bad experience, they tell 20. Just ask JCP or LULU. Some of these 'fire your customer' events are worse than others, but there's one commonality - they take a very long time to recover.



Alibaba IPO Seen Possible in Sept.



  • "Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is now said to be envisioning an initial public offering in September."
  • "The company on Friday, in a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, valued itself at $130 billion, up from the $117 billion valuation in late June."


APP - American Apparel Shareholders Seek Resignation of Board Members



  • "On the eve of the company’s naming five new directors to its board — the confirmation is expected as early as next week, according to sources — a hedge fund has demanded the resignation of the firm’s two co-chairman, David Danziger and Allan Mayer."


Back-to-school/college spending shows slight year-over-year improvement



  • "Families this summer will spend slightly more on back-to-school items than they did in 2013. According to NRF’s 2014 Back-to-School Survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, the average family with children in grades K-12 will spend $669.28 on apparel, shoes, supplies and electronics, up 5% from $634.78 in 2013."
  • "Total spending on back to school will drop slightly to $26.5 billion as the survey found there are slightly fewer students in households this summer."


House votes to expand tax break for store remodels



  • "The House has passed legislation broadening a federal tax law that makes it cheaper for retailers to remodel their stores, the National Retail Federation said."
  • "Lawmakers voted 258-160 today to make 'bonus depreciation' permanent, and granted NRF’s request that it be expanded to include stores that are owned rather than just those that are leased. The measure now heads to the Senate."

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more