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SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION?

Takeaway: A likely Joko Widodo victory + improving cyclical GIP fundamentals are supportive of remaining long Indonesian capital and currency markets.

On JAN 30th of this year, we published a note titled “SQUIRREL HUNTING WITH INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES AND NEW ZEALAND” in which we advocated for investors to get long of Indonesian capital and currency markets on a directionally positive intermediate-term GIP outlook amid a likely bearish-to-bullish TRADE & TREND reversal on our proprietary factoring.

 

Since then, the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF has appreciated +20.1%, which compares to a sample mean of +14.8% across the 24 country-level ETFs we track throughout the EM space. Additionally, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) has appreciated +4.5% vs. the USD since then, which compares to a sample mean of +2.9% across the 21 currencies we track across Asia and Latin America.  

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - EM Divergence Monitor

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - FX

 

Rather than book yet another round of alpha on the long side of emerging markets in 2014 (after having been the bears in 2013), we are content to keep this research idea “on”, given that we anticipate further upside from here.

 

Looking to the cyclical side of the trade, our predictive tracking algorithm pegs the Indonesian economy squarely in Quad #1 (i.e. growth accelerating as inflation decelerates) for the current quarter. Assuming this forecast is correct, this would mark the third straight quarter of decelerating inflation amid tougher compares and marginally less annualized currency debasement. Bank Indonesia’s +175bps of rate hikes from JUN ’13 to NOV ’13 are clearly bearing fruit.

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - INDONESIA

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - CPI

 

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Indonesia’s stronger growth profile for the third quarter is supported by easier compares and improving manufacturing and industrial production trends.

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - MANUFACTURING PMI

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

 

Looking to the structural side of the trade, we think investors are likely to continue paying up for a probable victory by Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo come Wednesday’s presidential election. Recall that the IDR declined -6.7% vs. the USD from its YTD high in early-APR through late-JUN on the specter of über-nationalist candidate Prabowo Subianto closing the gap on “Jokowi” in the polls.

 

Fast forward to today, the latest polling results from Lingkaran Survei Indonesia put Jokowi squarely in first place at 47.8% vs. 44.2% for Prabowo. Polls are what they are, however – i.e. occasionally inaccurate – so we’ll gladly wait for official confirmation come Wednesday.

 

While both candidates are more-or-less singing the same song with respect to their vision for economic policy (e.g. increased infrastructure spending, reduced fuel subsidies, increased oil & gas exploration, increased assistance to the agriculture sector and further crackdowns on graft), how they plan to get there quickly became a hot-button topic amongst international investors. Specifically, Prabowo is pledging to allocate resources in a more nationalist, authoritarian regime similar to the one he served under during the oft-maligned “New Order” administration led by former President Suharto.

 

Contrast Prabowo’s pledge with Jokowi’s insistence on cutting red tape and improving both the transparency and efficiency of government processes and it’s easy to see what makes the latter candidate more popular with global capital allocators.

 

Regardless of who wins Wednesday’s elections, the country doesn’t have all that much hay to bale on the reform front. The county’s fiscal policy is something to be admired globally – even amongst its Asian peers. Years of relatively tight fiscal policy have left the country with a pristine sovereign debt/GDP ratio of 26.1%, which is the second-lowest in all of Asia. It’s central government budget balance/GDP ratio of -1.4% is the third tightest in Asia behind only Taiwan and South Korea.

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - BUDGET BALANCE

 

That being said, however, the country is an emerging market, which, almost by definition, means it has a number of things it needs to improve upon before becoming competitive at the highest level internationally. Such low-hanging fruit include, but are not limited to:

 

  • Promoting FDI: Indonesia’s stock of FDI is a paltry 2.2% of GDP, which lags regional peers Thailand (3.3%) and Singapore (21.4%), the both of which have more open economies. Increased FDI would help shift Indonesia’s export base towards more value-added goods, at the margins, which may help to narrow the country’s bloated current account deficit (latest: -3.2% of GDP). Currently, natural resources account for roughly 65% of Indonesian exports.
  • Reducing Fuel Subsidies: Indonesia currently spends just over 55% of public expenditures on fuel subsidies. While reducing those subsidies would be inflationary in the short term, it would likely be disinflationary over the long term to the extent the currency rallies on improved BoP dynamics via reduced imports of fossil fuels. That’s not a given though; paring back fuel subsidies has been all but impossible for Indonesian policymakers to do since the aforementioned Suharto was overthrown amid mass protests of said subsidy reductions.
  • Promoting Infrastructure Development: While Indonesia has certainly improved in this area in recent years, the country still ranks only 61st in the quality of its infrastructure, which is often cited as a critical factor in perpetuating both structurally elevated inflation and structurally depressed FDI. Ranking 61st in this critical category for economic development is simply not good enough for the world’s 16th largest economy at PPP.
  • Reducing Graft and Cutting Red Tape: According to the World Economic Forum’s 2013-14 Global Competitiveness Report, “Corruption” and “Inefficient Government Bureaucracy” are Indonesia’s #1 and #2 most problematic factors for doing business. Both candidates have promised varying ways to attack both issues: Jokowi via increased funding for the state’s anti-graft agency and actually cutting said red tape; Prabowo via increasing pay for civil servants (to reduce their need to steal) and re-centralizing central government power.

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - GCR  1

Source: World Economic Forum 2013-14 Global Competitiveness Report

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - GCR  2

Source: World Economic Forum 2013-14 Global Competitiveness Report

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - GCR  3

Source: World Economic Forum 2013-14 Global Competitiveness Report

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - GCR  4

Source: World Economic Forum 2013-14 Global Competitiveness Report

 

It’s worth noting that our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index sees Pillar I and Pillar IV as Indonesia’s key areas of risk, which is perfectly in line with the areas for improvement listed above:

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - SUMMARY TABLE

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - PILLAR I

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - PILLAR IV

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - EXPLANATION TABLE

 

Regardless of who wins the upcoming election, it’s unclear if either candidate has the political backing to enact sweeping reforms – particularly in short order. Specifically, Prabowo’s Gerindra party only controls 13.04% of seats in the lower house of parliament; pairing that up with coalition partner Golkar pegs his baseline backing at only 29.29% of total seats. Still, that is more than the 19.46% of seats Jokowi’s PDI-P party currently holds. As such, investors would be remiss to expect anything but piecemeal reform(s) in the coming quarters given the mixed legislative landscape – irrespective of Wednesday’s outcome.

 

SHOULD YOU CHASE INDONESIA THROUGH THE ELECTION? - Indonesia Parliment

Source: Wikipedia

 

All told, we think a likely Joko Widodo victory and improving cyclical GIP fundamentals are supportive of remaining long Indonesian capital and currency markets. Email us if you’d like to dig in further.

 

Welcome back to the grind,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


Cartoon of the Day: $VIX Fireworks

"Front month VIX testing its all-time lows," wrote Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in today's Morning Newsletter. "Closing at 10.32 (it has never held below 10, sustainably).

 

Cartoon of the Day: $VIX Fireworks - VIX cartoon 07.07.2014


Expert Call: Net Neutrality/Title II Outcomes & Implications

Takeaway: We're hosting a call this Wednesday to discuss the progression of the major regulatory debates for the Internet & Media sector

Expert Call: Net Neutrality/Title II Outcomes & Implications - HE IM net

We are hosting a though leader call on Net Neutrality/Title II Outcomes & Implications with industry veteran, Jonathan Spalter, Chairman of Mobile Future. The call will be held on Wednesday, July 9th at 1:00pm EDT.

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE: 

  • Net Neutrality Implications
  • Title II Internet Reclassification Implications
  • Various Scenarios for Internet, Media, & Telecom sectors
  • Handicapping Outcomes
  • What the Calendar Looks Like

  

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 286369#

 

ABOUT JONATHAN SPALTER 


Jonathan Spalter, the chairman of Mobile Future, the national mobile and wireless technology association, has a long track record building and leading innovative media, technology and policy research companies in the U.S, Asia-Pacific and Europe. He founded the policy-focused independent investment research company Public Insight and was CEO of Snocap, a digital music licensing company founded by the creators of Napster. Spalter also held senior management roles at the Paris headquarters of Vivendi Universal, the global media, telecommunications, and entertainment group. He was senior vice president of the company's worldwide public policy team and also served as executive vice president of business development and strategy for Vivendi Universal Net and CEO of affiliate Atmedica Worldwide. During the Clinton administration, the Senate unanimously confirmed Spalter as associate director of the U.S. Information Agency, where he was also appointed chief information officer. In addition, he served as an advisor to and spokesman for Vice President Al Gore, as well as having served as a Director on the National Security Council and Assistant Press Secretary for International Affairs at the White House.    

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

'Stunning' Weather Reversal Sends Cotton Prices Down 20%

Takeaway: What a difference a couple of months can make.

Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from retail sector head Brian McGough's morning research. Click here for more information on how you can subscribe.

 

HBI, GIL - Cotton Boom Goes Bust as Rain-Soaked Texas Crop Sets Glut

  • "Two months ago, a drought threatened output in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, and stockpiles were heading for a two-decade low. Then came the rains in Texas, the top grower, sparking a planting surge that the government said will send inventories to a six-year high before the 2015 harvest."
  • "The 'stunning' weather reversal may boost U.S. output by 32 percent, Plexus Cotton Ltd. said in a report. Prices that in March were the highest in 25 months are now down more than any commodity this year."

'Stunning' Weather Reversal Sends Cotton Prices Down 20% - cotton

 

Takeaway: Cotton is down almost 20% from its YTD highs. Increased yield forecasts from the US coupled with China's decision to release some its cotton reserves, which accounts for nearly 60% of global stocks, means that the supply side of the pricing equation looks relatively healthy.

 

Material cost deflation should help offset labor cost headwinds facing names like (Hanesbrands) HBI and Gildan Activewear (GIL).


Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE

Investment Ideas

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart1

Recent Notes

06/30/14  Monday Mashup: DNKN, NDLS and More

07/02/14  DFRG: A Castle-in-the-Air

Events This Week

07/08/14  BOBE earnings release 4:00pm EST

07/09/14  BOBE earnings call 10:00am EST

Chart of the Day

With BOBE set to release earnings tomorrow after the close, we thought we’d take a close look at the value destruction the current Board and management team have perpetuated since mid-2012.  We are expecting a disappointing release and would be buyers on any negative news.  BOBE remains our highest conviction long idea.  We run through our long thesis in this slide deck.

 

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart2

Recent News Flow

Monday, June 30th

  • DIN Applebee’s brought back its Take Two menu for a limited time, giving guests the ability to pair any two selections from its Taste of Summer menu, starting at $10.99.
  • NDLS debuted catering in Colorado.
  • RRGB eliminated the position of COO, currently held by Eric. C. Houseman, in an internal restructuring.  Houseman’s employment will end on or around August 1st.

Tuesday, July 1st

  • WEN announced the return of its #PretzelLoveSongs campaign, in which the company takes select social media posts and turns them into lyrics of songs. This year, the songs will be performed in a series of music videos by Boyz II Men and Jon Secanda.
  • NDLS unveiled plans to add a floating server at its stores in order to drive dessert and drink sales.  CEO Kevin Reddy expects this addition to the restaurants will result in a 3% boost in same-store sales.  Noodles & Company has been testing the floating server in select restaurants for the past two years and plans to roll out the program system-wide by 2016.

Wednesday, July 2nd

  • No significant news.

Thursday, July 3rd

  • BOBE holder Sandell reported a 8.4% beneficial ownership in the company.
  • CAKE announced plans to celebrate National Cheesecake Day on July 30th and 31st by offering any slice of cheesecake at half price.

Friday, July 4th

  • No significant news.

Sector Performance                      

The XLY (+1.7%) outperformed the SPX (+1.0%) last week.  Both casual dining and quick service stocks underperformed the SPX Index.

 

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - 33

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart4

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative perspective, the sector remains bullish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

 

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart5

Casual Dining Restaurants


Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart6

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart7

Quick Service Restaurants


Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart8

Monday Mashup: Big Week for BOBE - chart9

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


European Banking Monitor: Swaps Back-off on the Week

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

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European Financial CDS - After widening steadily, swaps were predominantly tighter in Europe this past week. Part of the relief came from Portugal where initial reports of a Luxembourg investigation into Espirito Santo turned out to be wrong. Meanwhile, a temporary short-selling ban in the stock and management change all led to a relief rally. Espirito Santo swaps were 24 bps tighter on the week, closing at 294 bps, but remain +124 bps on the month. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Swaps Back-off on the Week - chart1 Financial CDS

 

Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were little changed on the week outside of Portugal. Portguese swaps tightened 22 bps to 132 bps on the news that its largest bank, Espirito Santo, was not under investigation by Luxembourg. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Swaps Back-off on the Week - chart2 sovereign CDS

 

European Banking Monitor: Swaps Back-off on the Week - chart3 sovereign CDS

 

European Banking Monitor: Swaps Back-off on the Week - chart4 sovereign CDS

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was unchanged at 15 bps.

 

European Banking Monitor: Swaps Back-off on the Week - chart5 Euribor OIS Spread

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Associate

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

 

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.32%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.48%
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