MACAU: JULY PROVIDES NO RELIEF

One week of data is hardly reliable but it does appear the soft results from June have continued into July. 

THE CALL TO ACTION

The long trade we made two weeks ago looks off as we recommend caution into more difficult Mass comps and a soft July.

THE SETUP

Table revenues averaged only HK$725 million per day through the first 6 days of the month, down 21% from the difficult comparable week last year.  We believe some of the operators held low but VIP volumes also appear soft.  Mass continues to be strong but we would caution that comparisons get tougher the rest of the year on the Mass side.  July is the first month to lap last year’s sharp rise in Mass table minimum bets.  See our June 13th note “MACAU – HANDICAPPING MASS DECELERATION”.  

MACAU: JULY PROVIDES NO RELIEF - m1

We expect sequential improvement throughout the rest of July.  As shown in the following chart, the comps ease the next few weeks.  Be careful with the 3rd and 4th week comps - they are impacted by the recurring "placeholder" revenue figure and must be viewed in the aggregate.  For the full month of July 2014, we expect full month GGR growth to be flat to slightly down YoY.  

MACAU: JULY PROVIDES NO RELIEF - M3

Market shares are irrelevant this early in the month but for those interested, here they are:

MACAU: JULY PROVIDES NO RELIEF - m2