CLIENT TALKING POINTS
SWEDEN
The Swedish Riksbank cut its main repo rate to 0.25% from 0.75%, double what was expected. This was the first time the central bank lowered borrowing in six months. In response the Swedish krona has plummeted to a three-and-a-half year low against the euro.
JAPAN AND CHINA
Japanese June Services PMI came in at 49 from 49.3, in line with recent post tax hike stabilization. We are seeing more mixed signals out of China on the growth and policy front. It appears Chinese Premier Li is out threatening further mini-stimulus, although we aren’t convinced the statement has much bite. All told, we maintain our dour second half view on the Chinese economy, citing a likely void of meaningful stimulus measures amid continued deterioration in the property sector.
IRELAND
GDP in Ireland rose 2.7%, the most since 2012. Finance Minister Michael Noonan has said the budget
adjustment needed next year to bring the deficit below 3% GDP may be less than the 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion).
TOP LONG IDEAS
HOLX
Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration. The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month. Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements. When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner. With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.
OC
Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery. A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating. Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms. As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.
LM
Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | 13% | US EQUITIES | 8% | |
| INTL EQUITIES | 12% | COMMODITIES | 24% | |
| FIXED INCOME | 28% | INTL CURRENCIES | 15% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
Semis a growing Cash Return story. Firms that can pursue LARGE dividend hikes are: $SNDK, $QCOM, $BRCM, $NVDA, $MRVL, $ALTR, $AVGO, $POWI
@HedgeyeBerger
QUOTE OF THE DAY
He loves his country best who strives to make it best.
-Robert G. Ingersoll
STAT OF THE DAY
Non-farm payrolls goes >200K for five months in a row for 1st time since January 2000.