INITIAL CLAIMS: SLOW & STEADY

Takeaway: One more step forward.

Winning the Race ...

The labor market news flow is heavy this morning with both the jobs report and jobless claims being reported at the same time. The data, however, represents neither acceleration/deceleration or any noteworthy inflection. Bottom line: the claims data indicates another week of solid progress in the labor market. The year-over-year rate of improvement in NSA claims came in at 8.7% this week, roughly in-line with last week's 9.0% y/y improvement. 

 

The Data

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims rose 3k to 315k from 312k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 1k to 313k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were higher by 2k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims rose 0.5k WoW to 315k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -8.7% lower YoY, which is a sequential deterioration versus the previous week's YoY change of -9.0%

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Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread rose 7 basis points WoW to 214 bps. 3Q14TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 212 bps, which is lower by -9 bps relative to 2Q14.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: SLOW & STEADY - 15

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: SLOW & STEADY - 16

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT


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