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Doves Kill

This note was originally published at 8am on June 19, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“And John bare record, saying, I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove…”

-Bible

 

God called Janet Yellen and told her to cut her US growth forecast and devalue the Dollar again yesterday. Thank goodness for that. What would we do without her?

 

Doves Kill - Titanic 03.31.2014

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

As ridiculous as doing the same thing over and over and over again (and expecting a different economic outcome) sounds, the un-elected-economic-central-planning-authority did just that (again), targeting rates lower (and inflation higher), yesterday.

 

Not that anyone should hold them accountable to why, but here’s what the Fed did yesterday:

 

  1. Cut its 2014 US GDP Growth forecast from 3% to 2.1%-2.3%
  2. But kept its 2015 GDP Growth forecast at 3.0-3.2%

 

Ah, so doing more of what is slowing real-inflation-adjusted growth is the answer, eh? Cool. Maybe if you’re long slow-growth #YieldChasing assets like bonds (or anything that looks like a bond – Utilities (XLU) led the rally yesterday, closing at fresh new highs of +15.2% YTD).

 

If you’re the poor bastard living on $60,000 US or less (i.e. the median consumer in America)… Well, you can eat the all-time highs in cost of living, and like it. Because these doves are going to kill your real-wages.

 

As you can see in the Chart of The Day, before the Oil spike in June (this is a May number), American real-wages (what you get paid in terms of wage growth minus made-up government inflation) just went negative for the 1st time in 2 years. That’s gotta be good.

 

BREAKING: Fed Fueled Stocks Fly, Dollar Sags, Oil 9 Month Highs” –Reuters

 

That’s a pretty cool headline too, right? Notwithstanding that US Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks are still DOWN year-to-date and Energy (XLE) +12.6% and Utilities are leading the rally, who cares about the details.

 

In other news, divine intervention took the VIX back to 10 yesterday. As a friendly reminder:

 

  1. The VIX (US stock market fear index) has never (ever) held below 10 in US history
  2. Never, ever, is a very long time

 

“So”, with bond yields falling fast (again) and Gold rising (again), what do I think you should do now?

 

  1. Keep doing the same thing we have been saying all year (buy #InflationAccelerating and slow-growth #YieldChasing assets)
  2. And add more frequent prayer to your daily process on days that the VIX has a 10 handle

 

Even if you’re not religious, I think you should think outside the box here and just do it. Because this is not going to end well.

 

As opposed to making a backward looking call that the US is going to repeat the prior credit crisis, I think the next economic crisis is going to be perpetuated by Fed policy. These ideological doves are going to kill 70% of US GDP (consumption) with a Policy To Inflate.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now (with intermediate-term @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets):

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.46-2.64% (bearish)

SPX 1928-1960 (bullish)

RUT 1155-1185 (neutral)

VIX 10.14-12.15 (bearish)

USD 80.07-80.63 (bearish)

EUR/USD 1.35-1.36 (bullish)

Pound 1.68-1.70 (bullish)

WTI Oil 105.14-108.28 (bullish)
Gold 1260-1286 (bullish)

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Doves Kill - RWG


July 3, 2014

July 3, 2014 - HE DTR JAN14


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 3, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.35% downside to 1948 and 0.12% upside to 1977.        

                                                                                                                       

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.16
  • VIX closed at 10.82 1 day percent change of -2.96%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 28, est. 313k (prior 312k)
    • Continuing Claims, June 21, est. 2.560m (prior 2.571m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 29 (prior 37.1)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, June final, est. 61 (prior 61.2)
    • Markit US Composite PMI, June final (prior 61.1)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, June., est. 56.3 (prior 56.3)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate on recess until July 8
    • 6am: Quinnipiac releases public opinion survey of Iraq troops, background
    • checks for gun purchasers, stricter gun laws
    • 12:30pm: Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx, holds news conf. with Gov.
    • Lincoln Chafee, D-R.I., on Highway Trust Fund
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Incumbency Worth $500k

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • ECB watchers seek Draghi illumination on path from low rates
  • Obama decries trader bonus system as risky even after Dodd-Frank
  • Arthur becomes hurricane off U.S. East Coast
  • VW rejects comments by Daimler’s Bernhard of possible Paccar bid
  • U.K. services employment rises at record pace as demand jumps
  • Ackman’s Pershing Square fund Is said to gain 25% in 1H
  • Occidental talks for Middle East unit stake sale said to falter
  • Dimon’s cancer has 90% cure rate with demanding therapy
  • Amazon plans to fight FTC over unauthorized mobile-app purchases
  • ‘Transformers’ shows worldwide appeal with China outdrawing U.S.
  • Siemens CEO chasing U.S. gas boom has ‘firepower’ for deals
  • Qualcomm buys Wilocity to step up challenge to Broadcom in Wi-Fi
  • Tesla approved by Pennsylvania assembly to add company stores
  • Salesforce considers acquisitions in Germany to spur growth
  • U.S. equity markets close 1pm ahead of July 4 holiday

    

EARNINGS:

    • International Speedway (ISCA) 7:30am, $0.48

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Chinese Trader Said to Pledge Metals Three Times Over for Loans
  • World Food Prices Fall for Third Month as Grains Lead Decline
  • Cotton Boom Goes Bust as Texas Rains Revive Surplus: Commodities
  • Libya Reopening Two Oil Ports After Taking Control From Rebels
  • Arthur Strengthens to Become First Atlantic-Season Hurricane
  • Gold Retreats From Three-Month High Before U.S. Payrolls Report
  • Nickel Climbs to Highest Since May as U.S. Data Boosts Demand
  • Steel Rebar Falls From 1-Week High on Chinese Mills Supply Glut
  • Palm Oil Declines as Drop in Crude May Ease Demand for Biodiesel
  • Coffee Gains for Second Session; Sugar Drops as Surplus Raised
  • Sugar Millers in Thailand Urge Market Prices to Avoid Smuggling
  • Rupture-Prone Oil Trains Keep Rolling a Year After Quebec Crash
  • Conditions Not ‘Ripe’ to Decide Weda Bay Project in ’14: Eramet
  • Corn Nears Bear Market on Outlook for Biggest Ever U.S. Harvest

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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VMR Products Call Replay And Key Take-Aways

Today we hosted a conference call on electronic cigarettes & e-vapor products with Jan Andries Verleur, CEO and co-founder of VMR products, a leading global online manufacturer with brands V2 Cigs and Vapor Couture.   

 

Jan co-founded VMR Products in 2009. Beyond the company’s online presence, its products are found in 40,000 domestic retail locations and 50,000 worldwide. The call is part of a series of talks we’ve held with industry experts (previous speakers included CEOs of NJOY, LOGIC, Ballantyne Brands and Victory). On the call Jan offers valuable industry commentary – including key insight on sales and consumer trends that may be shifting to larger e-vapor products and away from Big Tobacco’s smaller “cig-alike” e-cig offerings.

 

Below we provide key commentary from a robust Q&A with Jan.  We also encourage you to listen to the recording. 

 

Click for the replay podcast

Click for LOGIC’s presentation

 

 

Key Q&A Callouts:

  • Are Proposed FDA Regulations surprisingly light? There was no proposed bans or limits on marketing, flavors, or online sales?   Jan says VMR is very active in regulatory affairs and met with OMB prior to proposed regulations … he believes that regulatory proposals are responsible and take into account the importance of innovation.
  • Retail versus Online Consumer and Online regulatory concerns. He says in retail stores there’s only limited shelf space/limited SKU breadth, so you can only have so much of the consumer’s attention, however online is different… online users visit websites numerous times before making a buying decision, consult third party reviews and blogs, and so therefore they’re a higher educated consumer. The name of the game for online business is SKU breadth, but by limiting the sale of these products online you essentially hand the industry over to tobacco players. He thinks the OMB appropriately addressed this issue by not restricting (online) accessibility.
  • E-cig vs E-vapor trends. What is the function of the recent decline in measured e-cig sales? (Sales have flattened since the summer 2013 and are down a second consecutive month to -6.1%Y/Y in the four weeks ended June 15th, according to IRI). Jan underlines that the e-vapor category (and not the traditional e-cig or “cig-alike” aka micro-cigs category that most of Big Tobacco primarily sells) has not seen any substantial decline on volume, when looked at globally.  The area of decline is in micro-cigs, specific to trade, and he believes it’s a function of the lack of product quality (and therefore experience) delivered to the retail end user.
  • Large scale vaporizers appeal is the newest trend online, and their appeal is strong battery life (not limited to the confines of a small cig-alike) and amount of liquid they hold. These products are just now beginning to find their way into retail trade, but of course are not being specifically counted with Nielsen and SMA data, because they’re often sold in alternative (non-counted) channels.
  • “Cig-alikes” have Consumer Appeal? According to Jan, consumers are not looking for a product that looks identical to cigarettes they’re looking to leave behind (Hedgeye note: this flies squarely against NJOY’s  messaging), they are looking for a product that fulfills and satiates their appetite for nicotine without smoke (and less harm) that’s convenient. He believes larger devises are winning out because 1) they can provide a longer battery life, and 2) they offer a greater level of differentiation from traditional tobacco smoking.  He however doesn’t think the cig-alike category will disappear as there will be people that don’t wish to deal with refilling e-juice, etc. 
  • On optimism around future Cig-alike technology. He expects that improvement in future version of cig-alike versions will more evenly balance the playing field with larger e-vapor products, and that ultimately (regardless of form), both smaller and larger sized devises can win consumer appeal if the quality/user experience in delivering the nicotine is high (without combustion).
  • How large is the U.S. e-vapor category worth today?  Jan thinks the cig-alike category is around $350MM online, and large scale devises (or non cig-alike) are worth $200MM online to $350MM. For trade, in what can be tracked, the figure is near $1B, but there’s also offline trade that can’t be tracked.  All U.S. vapor products could be as high as $2B in 2014.
  • Any thoughts on blu's recently launching/testing a vapor product in the UK?   The product that blu has tested (blu pro kit) is essentially a private label technology that blu decided to sell. It is essentially a rebranded, generic product that’s similar to many like it produced in China. On July 4th, VMR is bring online V2 Pro series (3-in-one-vaporizer that can vaporize anything the consumer wants to).
  • Color on the quality of the e-liquid, battery, atomizer from China?  Manufacturing shifting to U.S.A.?  Jan says when it comes to product quality it’s all about who you are buying from, and this can be found in all places from Idaho to Uzbekistan, so manufacturing in China is all about quality of the relationship. He says companies that don’t have the staff on the ground to manage the manufacturing process will be at a great disadvantage when it comes to regulatory issues.
  • Geographic Opportunities?  Yes - Europe, China, Russia.  Today over 70% of VMR’s revenue is in the U.S., but Europe and PRoC are its targeted growth markets. In 2016/17 he thinks China will emerge as a huge opportunity for vapor technologies. He also views Russia favorably, especially as tobacco regulation comes down more heavily on where you can purchase it and higher excise tax. Finally, Europe, especially when talking about large scale devises has a lot of growth runway (the U.K. is currently the largest market worth around $350MM).   
  • Latin and South American Opportunities?  Jan says it’s a good market but there are a series of problems throughout the region. He say VMR is successful in Ecuador; growing in Colombia; had regulatory issues in Costa Rica, Panama is closed down; Brazil is difficult unless doing domestic manufacturing. From a regulatory and business perspective as of today, Jan is much more favorable on the opportunity in Europe, China, and Russia.
  • Disposables versus rechargables micro-cigs? Does one lead to the other, or based on occasion?  Jan believes that disposables play very well at retail, while they’re very hard to sell online. The reason for that is the online consumer will realize that best products aren’t disposables, and it’s more economical to buy rechargable (especially as online buyers tend more towards bulk buying at a discount). Unlike tobacco trends in where 70% of smokers buy a pack a day (rather than a carton), Jan believes that consumers that committed to the e-cig/e-vapor category will drift into rechargables and large scale devise products over disposables. Expects disposables to remain 50% of c-store sales, but to diminish in future years.
  • Consumer and Vape Shop Demands.  Jan describes a typical vape shop consumer looking for an endless supply of e-liquids, wants devise selection, and may look for the $50, $100, or $250 vaporizer. (There are roughly 15,000 vape shops across the U.S.).   He views this type of consumer very differently than a traditional cigarette smoker looking for an alternative to combustion, who likely gravitates towards the c-store. In any case, no c-store will be selling a $200 vaporizer, so he see some clear lines in the sand based on channel with some opportunity for product/consumer overlap. 

 

We invite you to read a note published this morning titled Tobacco Trends – PM Shorter Term Struggles Persist; LO Bulls that details our updated outlook on the tobacco and e-cig/e-vapor markets.  Jan’s commentary, along with all the CEOs we’ve profiled, in conjunction with new data we’ll soon be releasing on an e-cig/e-vapor survey, help to inform our thinking on the direction of the category, and therefore estimate the impact on Big Tobacco’s portfolio.

 

We hope you can join us for future expert calls, including our next E-cig Speaker Series featuring CEO John Wiesehan Jr. of Ballantyne Brands on July 16th at 11am EST. More details to follow. 

 

Happy 4th of July!!!

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Matt Hedrick

Associate

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


Tea Leafing the June Jobs Report

Editor's note: This is a complimentary research insight from Hedgeye macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here for more information on our products and services.

 

On a month-to-month basis, the payroll estimates from ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics can differ substantially.  However, on a multi-month, moving average basis, the relationship between the ADP & Non-farm private payroll (NFP) figures is pretty decent. 

 

This is more analytic musing than convicted forecasting, but for the co-integration tea leafers…..the regression using the 3M rolling average in the ADP series (updated for this morning’s data) suggests +217,000 on the June NFP Private payroll print (current estimate = 213,000)


Tea Leafing the June Jobs Report - tea leaf reading

  

Historically, it appears the tendency is for NFP to re-couple to ADP after outlier moves (counting actual payrolls may be more accurate than calling up some smaller cross-section and asking questions….whoulda thunk). 

 

More to be revealed tomorrow morning...

 

Tea Leafing the June Jobs Report - ADP vs NFP



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